Since the war started between Ukraine and Russia in February 2022, I have been saying that no matter what the EU or the USA do, ultimately the fighting will only stop when Russia gets mostly what it wants. In this time, billions of dollars have been expended, more than 1 million people have died, Ukraine has lost control of some 45000 square miles of its territory (that’s 19% of its total land mass), and 100s of thousands of tonnes of explosives have been detonated. And Russia has managed to humble more than 30 western nations.
The biggest mistake Zelensky made was to believe the western rhetoric and think Ukraine could win against Russia. Common sense was tossed out of the window. Had they asked just one simple question, i.e. is there any scope of a major nuclear power accepting defeat from a minor state? And the answer would always be, never. In their collective hate for Putin and Russia, the west promoted a dictator in the name of Zelensky to do their bidding.
Zelensky’s bust up with Trump earlier this year was a clear signal that all was not well. The Europeans to grab attention (and show relevance) conjured up the ‘Coalition of the Willing’. Once again, no one bothered to ask, ‘what are they willing to do’? The answer, nothing. The best they could do was give money and keep the war going, but no one from this pathetic coalition was willing to enter the war on the ground.
So when Trump released his 28 point ‘peace’ plan for Ukraine, I was not surprised with its content. The long and short of it, America is willing to sell Ukraine to the Russians, and in that process, Trump wants to make billions for America and American companies. In the end, this was, and is, all about money and very little to do with the sovereignty of Ukraine.
I have had a look at this draft plan, and the following points caught my eye:
a. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed. I think this is the biggest joke. After all, the plan ensures Russia keeps the gains of war. In which universe does that equate with confirmed sovereignty?
b. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further. Well, if only NATO had kept their word given to Gorbachov in 1990 of it not expanding, then maybe Ukraine would not have been in this mess now.
c. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will NOT join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will NOT be admitted in the future. This is a massive win for Russia.
d. The U.S. guarantee: If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.
Is there anyone who still believes NATO and the USA would make a ‘decisive coordinated military response’?
e. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
- The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
- Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
This is a total win for Russia.
f. Territories:
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
- Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
- Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
This is a total win for Russia.
g. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future. Which means Putin and the Russian army personnel cannot be taken to the courts. This will really hurt all those in the EU who have promised to prosecute Russia for war crimes.
The 28-point plan will no doubt change as further discussions take place. The Europeans (or the ‘Coalition of the Willing’) will want to change the language such that it does not look like a total win for Russia. However, the substantive elements will have to be preserved if they wish an end to the war.
Trump failed on Ukraine the day he was elected and could not stop the war immediately. So, getting a deal done now at any cost is nothing more than face saving. There is nothing more important to Trump, than Trump. It’s also a fact that Ukraine had lost the war the day it started. Billions given to Ukraine but all it did was prolong an already lost war.
No matter how you slice this cake, we can say that Putin has won, Trump has been humiliated, and Ukraine has paid a heavy price to make Zelensky a very rich man.
