Exponential death toll on the horizon in the UK if action delayed

Wednesday 23rd September 2020 06:28 EDT
 

British senior medics have warned of an exponentially growing death rate from Covid-19 within weeks if urgent action is delayed to curb a rapidly spreading second wave of the pandemic. The United Kingdom, which currently has the biggest Covid-19 death toll in Europe, fifth largest in the world, sees cases rising by at least 6,000 per day.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty, and Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance cautioned that if left unrestricted the epidemic would reach 50,000 new cases per day by mid-October in the United Kingdom. Whitty said, “If this continued along the path...the number of deaths directly from Covid ... will continue to rise, potentially on an exponential curve, that means doubling and doubling and doubling again and you can quickly move from really quite small numbers to really very large numbers.”

He added, “If we don't do enough the virus will take off and at the moment that is the path that we are clearly on and if we do not change course then we're going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.”

Vallance said the virus is spreading across all areas of the country and less than 8 per cent of the population have antibodies to the virus, though in London around 17 per cent of the population may have antibodies. Whitty and Vallance said speed and action are urgently needed, adding that as winter was approaching the Covid problem would haunt Britain for another six months at the least.

Chief Medical Officers for England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland had earlier recommended all four nations move up to Covid -19 alert 'Level 4'. Prime Minister Boris Johnson assured the leaders that his government was committed to working with their administrations to tackle the virus. Northern Ireland said it would extend existing restrictions in some localities on households mixing indoors across the whole of the province, while Wales issued curbs on four more areas, leaving just under a third of the population under restriction.

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Sadiq Khan endorses tighter restrictions

London Mayor Sadiq Khan rendered support to local council leaders and public health experts on new Covid-19 restrictions to be put to central government as another outbreak threatens to sweep through the Capital. In a statement, he said he will urge the government to implement the new plan at the earliest, and discuss it with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The measures include reduced opening hours for pubs and bars and extending the wearing of face masks on public transport and in shops to other public areas. “Without adequate testing or contact tracing in London we have no choice but to look at other measures to slow the spread of the virus. I firmly believe that acting early, rather than having to impose more stringent measures later, is the right thing to do both for public health and the economy,” Khan said.


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