The UK economy is projected to outpace France in the coming years, becoming nearly 20% larger by 2038 and closing the gap with Germany, according to the latest World Economic League table from the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The UK is expected to maintain its position as the sixth-largest global economy.
Forecasts indicate that by 2033, the UK economy will be 10.2% larger than France, with this gap expanding to 19.9% by 2038. During the same period, the difference between the UK and Germany, which is currently almost a third larger than the UK, is anticipated to narrow slightly to 28.8%.
The reduction in the economic disparity between the UK and Germany is attributed to a deceleration in the latter's growth due to its reliance on Russia for energy to drive its manufacturing sector. While Germany is projected to resume economic growth in 2024, this growth is expected to gradually slow by 2038. Consequently, Germany is anticipated to cede its position as the third-largest economy to Japan in 2026 and fall to the fourth spot behind India in 2027.
India is forecasted to emerge as the world's third $10 trillion economy by 2035, leading to a shift in global geopolitics as three superpowers contend for influence, rather than the traditional two.