I have just returned from the Maldives. Timely and am due to visit again in 3 weeks.
Indian PM Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep when the Maldivean head was visiting China is not an accident. Indeed it’s the best publicity for the place. I’ve been to the Andaman Islands – these too are underdeveloped for tourism by India.
So what should be the strategy on dealing with the Maldives?
Diplomatic Engagement: As Prime Minister Modi, the first step would be to seek diplomatic engagement with the Maldivian leadership to understand the reasons behind the insult. This approach aligns with Chanakya's principles of 'Sama' (negotiation) and 'Dama' (material inducement), suggesting a tactful and pragmatic approach to resolve conflicts.
Assessing the Influence of External Powers: Given the strategic location of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, it's crucial to assess whether the insult is a result of external influences, particularly China. The Maldives has been a focal point in the Indian Ocean for Chinese investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. Henry Kissinger's realpolitik approach would advise understanding the power dynamics and the influence of external players in the region.
Strategic Restraint and Public Messaging: Practicing strategic restraint in the immediate response is essential. Overreaction could escalate the situation unnecessarily. Public messaging should emphasize India's commitment to regional stability, cooperation, and respect for sovereignty, echoing Modi's 'Neighbourhood First' policy. Indeed Akshay Kumar put it well, “dignity first”.
Leveraging Economic and Military Cooperation: India should leverage its economic and military cooperation with the Maldives. This might involve reassessing aid and development projects or military cooperation in a way that signals India's displeasure without completely undermining the relationship. Chanakya’s 'Danda' (punishment) can be interpreted here as a calibrated response rather than overt aggression.
Domestic Political Considerations: Modi's response should also consider domestic political implications. Any perceived weakness in dealing with international insults could have internal political costs. However, an overly aggressive response might also draw criticism.
Long-Term Strategy for Regional Stability: Finally, India should consider a long-term strategy for regional stability that includes but is not limited to the Maldives. This strategy should focus on building resilient and mutually beneficial relationships with neighbouring countries to counterbalance China's growing influence.
Anyway, there will be elections soon in Maldives. 282,000 vote.