UK house prices fell by 1.1% in the year to February, as higher mortgage rates and living costs made homes less affordable. Aside from a small drop at the start of the pandemic, this was the first annual fall in property values since November 2012.
Prices slipped on a monthly basis too, falling by 0.5% from January. The building society said it would be "hard for the market to regain much momentum in the near term. Economic headwinds look set to remain relatively strong, with the labour market widely expected to weaken as the economy shrinks in the quarters ahead," said its chief economist Robert Gardner. He added that mortgage rates remained "well above" the lows seen in 2021.
The price of an average property is now £257,406, down from £258,297 in January and 3.7% lower than its peak in August 2022. House prices have fallen on a monthly basis for six months in a row, according to Nationwide, as higher borrowing costs have squeezed buyers. Mortgage rates were already rising last year as the Bank of England put up interest rates to tackle the soaring cost of living.
Looking to the future, Gardner predicted property prices would fall by 5-6% from their peak in August 2022 to the trough which "feels like a relatively soft landing given the pressure on household finances". However, he added that forecast was dependent on the labour market not weakening more than people expect.