The government has underestimated the number of children in England eligible for 30 hours of free childcare promised from September, warns a lobby group.
The government says 390,000 three and four-year-olds will be eligible. But research for the Pre-school Learning Alliance suggests the figure will be nearer 500,000, meaning tens of thousands could miss out.
The government says it is spending more on childcare than any previous administration. It will "hit the ground running" to deliver the extra free hours in September.
The government already funds 15 hours of free nursery care for three and four-year-olds. This is due to rise to 30 hours for working parents from September.
The basis of the Pre-school Learning Alliance (PSLA) warning is twofold:
- a survey of 1,700 households suggests the proportion of children meeting the eligibility criteria is 23% higher than government estimates
- the government has not allowed for parents increasing their working hours to become eligible for the scheme - to qualify, each parent must earn a weekly minimum equivalent to at least 16 hours at the national minimum wage.
The specialist early years research company Ceeda, which carried out the survey, says an extrapolation of the results suggests 478,000 children meet the eligibility criteria.
The researchers say that parents increasing their hours could add another 22,000 children, bringing the total to about half a million - 28% higher than allowed for by the government.
And the PSLA says the final figure could be even higher as the Ceeda calculations do not include children of parents not currently working who take up jobs, encouraged by the offer of free childcare.
The group says that if children meet the eligibility criteria and their parents can find nurseries offering the free hours, the government will have to fund them, even if there are more of them than they have allowed for in their budget.
