At this time I am reminded of the story of a famous Guru who was known for giving blessings that always delivered. People with pain, illness, financial problems etc all flocked to seek his blessings. The Guru will raise his right hand and say ‘ yeh din be chele jayenge ‘ ( these days of difficulty will also pass). There was one person who had only the good news of having been blessed with a grandson seeking the Guru’s blessings. Again the the Guru gave the same blessings, yeh din be chele jayenge! The Guru was right. The bad times will pass and so also good times will pass.
With Covid 19, these hard times will also pass and good times will emerge. We can debate when things will start improving. We are already hearing about the lockdowns being softened. My own feeling is that in the UK we shall see a turnaround in May when lockdown will get slowly relaxed.
The world has seen similar challenges in its history. We have had world wars. We have had Spanish flue pandemic when 50 million died. We have had tsunamis and we have had earthquakes. This is a resilient world with ingenious humans who are so very adapt at facing any calamity.
One must look back and reflect on so many lives that have been lost including those in the frontline fighting to save us. All of a sudden our normal defence forces like army, navy and airforce have become ineffective and our real army fighting this war is actually the team of doctors and nurses. I salute their efforts and no doubt they will be recognised in the good times.
The World economy will decline by estimated 2% and we shall experience pressures of economic
decline.
However, what is most noticeable is the economic stimulus that has been announced by various countries supplemented and supported by substantial loans from world bank. This is unprecedented and much more than economic support during the 2008 global recession. The stimulus consists of soft loans but also forgiving of rates and giving of grants to businesses and individuals. All this money will work it's way in the economy and will mean the downturn will be short lived.
So we shall see some pent up demand rising. Apart from groceries and medicines, none of us have had any opportunity to spend even if we intended. Many of us will be eager to spend as soon as things get better.
One thing is for sure. The world will be different than before COVID19. People have learnt to be more with their families. They have learnt to cook and enjoy home food. It's amazing how families are active in connecting with each other which is more than before. Our monthly family prayers are not stopped but digitised using Zoom! Business meetings are getting conducted using modern technology with ease. Many people will find that they do not need to travel to have a face to face meeting. So travelling is bound to reduce. This will help our environment. We have learnt that we hardly use our cars. Many will realise the need to reduce cars that we own. We have witnessed wonderful acts of humanity everywhere. People are very willing to help others in need and openly donating to support all those working in the front line. We have had time to to reflect and look in to our inner selves. Many will no doubt develop stronger faith in God. This is supported by various Mandirs streaming prayers and darsans. We are also learning about how not to waste. All this will lead to a better and cleaner world.
Even our funeral’s have become small and the prayers are already becoming digitised.
This downturn will turn in to an upturn. There is no doubt. It may take 6 months or a year but we shall see an upturn. This posses a great opportunity to look out for good investment opportunities. Both stock market and real estate will provide great opportunities for those sitting on cash.
So after these hard times we can look forward to better times ahead.
