White British people are projected to become a minority in the UK within the next 40 years, according to a new report.
The analysis, based on long-term trends in migration, birth rates, and mortality, forecasts that the white British share of the population will fall from 73% to 57% by 2050, dropping below 50% by 2063. Research by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University further projects a decline to just 33.7% by the end of the century.
The report also anticipates a sharp rise in the proportion of foreign-born and second-generation immigrants, from under 20% to 33.5% within 25 years. By 2100, six in ten UK residents are expected to either be born abroad or have at least one immigrant parent. The Muslim population, currently at 7%, is projected to grow to 11.2% within 25 years and 19.2% by century’s end.
Professor Goodwin, using ONS and census data, warned that these demographic shifts pose significant challenges for the UK’s political and social landscape. Without addressing public concerns around immigration, identity, and cultural cohesion, he cautioned, the country may experience increasing polarisation and unrest. His report follows a period of record migration—906,000 in 2023 under the Conservatives and Labour’s recent proposal for tighter migration rules. He noted that such changes raise pressing questions about the nation’s ability to maintain unity, values, and a shared sense of identity, referencing Keir Starmer’s warning of the UK becoming “an island of strangers.”
However, in an environment already strained by rising Islamophobia and incidents of racial violence, such predictions risk fuelling anti-immigration narratives and societal division if not properly contextualised.
Unpacking race, identity, and misleading UK projections
These projections aren't just arbitrary statements, but a deliberate effort to provoke thought and highlight the hypocrisy faced by some British citizens. For individuals born and raised in the UK, but with one immigrant parent and a non-white appearance, these actions aim to shed light on the subtle (and sometimes overt) discrimination they may experience, forcing a confrontation with uncomfortable truths about identity and belonging within British society.
In a column written for 'The Independent', Director of UK in a Changing Europe and professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King's College London, Anand Menon addresses a recent report that warned of the "white British population" becoming a minority in the UK within 40 years. He highlights the report's methodology, noting that an analysis of migration, birth, and death rates by the University of Buckingham suggests the white British population, currently at 73%, is projected to fall to 57% by 2050, potentially becoming a minority by 2063.
Menon specifically critiques the report's "curious" definition of "white British" as "people who do not have an immigrant parent." He points out the absurdity of this definition, stating that it would disqualify individuals born in the UK with non-white appearances but Irish, French, or German parents, and even prominent figures like King Charles, Winston Churchill, and Boris Johnson, from being considered "white British."
Menon argues that this isn't merely foolishness, but a deliberate attempt to create alarm through misleading predictions. He notes the report's projections of an increase in foreign-born people and second-generation immigrants, many of whom are British citizens. He also calls out the report's further claim that by the end of the century, most people in the UK won't have more than one or two generations of roots in the country.
Furthermore, Menon points to the concerning equation of "foreign-born and Muslim populations," suggesting a prejudiced view that Muslim identity inherently negates "Britishness," regardless of birthplace. He concludes that the underlying issue being hinted at isn't truly about Britishness, but rather a discomfort with the country not being "white enough."
Speaking with Asian Voice, Anand Menon addressed concerns about "reverse colonisation" creeping into public discourse. He challenged the notion that those propagating this idea dominate the national conversation, stating, "I think we should be careful not to assume that these people are dominating the national conversation, because I just don't think they are in all the sound and fury in the debate over immigration." Menon emphasized that only a small proportion of Labour voters consider immigration the most important issue, suggesting that "it's not the case that the whole country is up in arms about this. There is a vocal minority that is talking about these sorts of things, and I think in general, there is an appreciation that multiculturalism has worked quite well.”
Regarding the responsibility of political leaders and media in shaping an inclusive British identity amidst racially motivated violence, Menon stressed the need for public figures to avoid inciting hatred. He asserted, “I don't think it's about an understanding of what it takes for British I think people with a public profile have a responsibility not to stir violence and hatred." He pointed to the existence of irresponsible rhetoric and urged for the proper enforcement of laws against inciting hatred. Menon also highlighted a worrying trend: "sections of what we used to call the centre right becoming quite badly radicalised in terms of their language, on race and so on. I think people owe it to the country to be a bit more responsible in the language they use.”
