Andy Burnham’s recent by-election campaign in Makerfield began as a test of Labour strength in a traditional stronghold. It has ended as a political turning point with national consequences.
During the campaign, Burnham made a deliberate point of acknowledging a community whose numbers in the constituency are small but whose engagement proved highly visible. Posting on social media, he wrote: “I acknowledge the valuable contribution of the British Hindu community to the United Kingdom.”
The statistics underline the contrast between size and influence. Makerfield has a population of 98,833 and an electorate of 76,845, yet only 212 residents identify as Hindu. Despite this, campaigners from Hindus for Labour travelled from across the country, transforming the local contest into a coordinated national mobilisation effort. Volunteers knocked on doors, distributed leaflets, engaged voters and helped raise funds, injecting organisation and momentum into Burnham’s campaign.
That mobilisation formed part of a broader effort that ultimately delivered a decisive result. Burnham secured almost 55 per cent of the vote, defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes in a contest marked by a striking 59 per cent turnout—among the highest recorded in a by-election for decades.
A political shockwave from Westminster
But the result in Makerfield was quickly overtaken by events in Westminster.
Within days, Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister after mounting pressure from within his own parliamentary party. His departure brought an abrupt end to a premiership that had begun with a landslide general election victory less than two years earlier.
Standing outside Downing Street, Starmer accepted the decision with visible resignation. “The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election,” he said. “I have heard the answer from my parliamentary party… and I accept that answer with good grace.”
He defended his record in office, pointing to rising wages, falling NHS waiting lists, infrastructure investment and what he described as the most significant expansion of workers’ and renters’ rights in a generation. A leadership contest, he confirmed, would be initiated by Labour’s National Executive Committee, with nominations opening on 9 July.
Burnham enters the frame
As Starmer exited, Andy Burnham entered Westminster amid scenes of support from MPs and activists, quickly becoming the focal point of a rapidly shifting political landscape.
Almost immediately, speculation intensified over a future Cabinet and potential leadership team, should Burnham consolidate his position. The role of Chancellor has already emerged as a key battleground, with some Labour MPs reportedly viewing former Health Secretary Wes Streeting as a leading contender for the Treasury if as he aligns himself with a Burnham-led administration. Streeting’s swift backing of Burnham, within hours of Starmer’s resignation, was interpreted by allies as a strategic alignment with the emerging power centre.
The political symbolism was difficult to ignore. Chancellor Rachel Reeves was absent from Downing Street during Starmer’s resignation statement, later appearing in a separate photo opportunity with Burnham in Westminster Hall.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has also expressed support for the newly elected Makerfield MP. Meanwhile, allies of Al Carns, who resigned as Defence Minister this month, said he was still weighing a leadership bid, claiming that “many, many” Labour MPs were encouraging him to stand.
However, the leadership question remains unsettled. Some Labour MPs are calling for a formal contest, while others prefer a swift transition to avoid further internal division. Backbencher Nadia Whittome insisted that “there needs to be a contest” for the next Labour leader. If no challenger emerges, Burnham could, in theory, be positioned to take over within weeks.
Momentum, uncertainty and scrutiny
Despite his rising profile, questions remain over Burnham’s broader political appeal and policy clarity.
A recent poll suggests that while he is viewed as Labour’s strongest potential successor to Starmer, many voters still do not clearly understand what he stands for. Just under a quarter of respondents believe he is ready to become Prime Minister, while more than a third disagree and a significant proportion remain undecided.
Concerns persist around his economic credibility and position on immigration, even as supporters argue that his blend of regional authority and electoral success could help stabilise Labour’s national standing.
Burnham backs his ideas with a political framework he calls “Manchesterism”, a label he openly embraces as a form of “business-friendly socialism.” At its core, Burnham argues that Britain’s economy is overly centralised in London, and that this imbalance has weakened national growth and opportunity.
His solution is deeper devolution: shifting real economic power over housing, utilities, transport, and education, away from Westminster and into local communities.
On fiscal policy, Burnham has committed to Labour’s existing rules, including balancing day-to-day spending with revenues by 2029–30, as well as the 2024 manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT.
On immigration, he has aligned himself with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s tougher approach, supporting recent tightening of both legal and illegal migration routes.
Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has also weighed in, urging Burnham to prioritise economic growth and cautioning against overpromising in office, warning that “the realities of government are far harsher than life on the campaign trail.”
“A government with achievements, but no story”
Councillor Salman Shaheen, Labour councillor for Isleworth in the London Borough of Hounslow, said Starmer’s resignation felt inevitable after a period of sustained political collapse.
He pointed to what he described as “apocalyptic local elections” for Labour, noting that even in Hounslow, one of the party’s last strongholds, Labour only just held on while losing several experienced councillors. “Across the country, it was a bloodbath for Labour,” he said, arguing that responsibility ultimately rested with Starmer’s leadership.
Cllr Shaheen stressed that Labour’s record should not be dismissed, highlighting reforms on workers’ rights, renters’ protections and free breakfast clubs. But he argued the government “didn’t tell a story about what those reforms were for,” leaving voters without a clear sense of direction.
He also warned that Andy Burnham would face many of the same structural pressures as Starmer. “All of the challenges that faced Keir Starmer also face Andy Burnham,” he said, pointing to a fragile economy and the rise of a well-funded hard right driving misinformation online. In his view, these conditions have strengthened Reform UK and created a difficult environment for any Labour leader.
Cllr Shaheen argued that Starmer’s core weakness was strategic and narrative-based rather than purely policy-driven. While acknowledging reforms, he said the government “lacked an overarching narrative” and failed to communicate a clear mission for change.
By contrast, he believes Burnham is more effective at political communication and carries a stronger sense of purpose. He describes him as “driven by a sense of mission” focused on tackling inequality and bringing key utilities and services back under public control where necessary.
However, he cautioned against overstating the differences. Burnham, he noted, has also made policy shifts, including earlier support for rejoining the EU in the longer term, which may be difficult to advance in practice.
He also criticised Labour’s tougher rhetoric on immigration, saying it risks alienating progressive voters and has already contributed to losses to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. In his view, trying to compete with Reform on its own ground is unlikely to succeed, “You risk losing progressive voters while failing to gain much in return.”
Cllr Shaheen pointed to Makerfield as evidence that a clearer progressive message can still work, where voters from smaller parties consolidated behind Burnham as the strongest alternative. Now, Burnham’s challenge is to avoid repeating Labour’s recent strategic errors: prioritising competition with Reform over maintaining a motivated progressive base.
A leader in waiting?
Burnham has already met with outgoing Prime Minister Starmer following his by-election victory and is expected to receive briefings from civil servants in the coming days, further fuelling speculation about an accelerated transition.
Yet his path to No 10 remains contested, not just within Labour, but in public perception. While he has demonstrated electoral strength and organisational reach, particularly in Makerfield, his national mandate remains untested.
As Westminster adjusts to an abrupt change in leadership, one reality is becoming increasingly clear: Andy Burnham is no longer simply a regional political heavyweight.
He is now the central figure in a rapidly unfolding power struggle, admired by many, known to some, but still an enigma to much of the electorate.
And while he has shown he can win elections, the defining question ahead is whether he can define a country.
