The South Asian population has historically contributed significantly to the UK’s cultural, economic, and social landscape. They are active in various sectors, including healthcare, education, business, and public services. As a growing and dynamic community, their participation in the democratic process is increasingly influential.
In the context of the general election, the South Asian electorate holds considerable sway, particularly in urban constituencies with large South Asian populations. Political parties recognise the importance of engaging with and addressing the concerns of this community. The political engagement of the South Asian community is not just about numbers but also about the mobilisation and advocacy around specific issues that resonate with their experiences and aspirations. The outcome of elections in key constituencies could be significantly influenced by the voting patterns and preferences of South Asian voters. Therefore, understanding and addressing the needs and priorities of the South Asian population is crucial for any political party aiming for success in the general election.
Highlighting this significance, the Director of the SOAS South Asia Institute, Dr Subir Sinha, spoke to Asian Voice about the role of the South Asian community in the UK general election. He discussed trends and changes in voting behaviour among South Asian people and much more, emphasising the community's growing impact on the political landscape.
1) The South Asian community is a significant demographic in the UK. Can you give us an overview of the historical context of voting patterns in UK general elections?
Historically, the South Asian community in the UK has predominantly supported Labour, but this trend has shifted since 2012. Reports indicate that Asian voters increasingly align with the broader public, with Hindu voters drifting towards the Conservative Party, especially since 2015. Muslim Asians have shown support for independent candidates like George Galloway and parties like Reform, starting from Bradford in 2012. This shift is influenced by the popularity of Modi and Hindutva among some British Hindus, and dissatisfaction with Labour's stance on Kashmir and human rights in India. Affluent South Asians have turned to the Tories, feeling limited political prospects within Labour. Additionally, groups like the Bangladeshi restaurant association and far-left Indian workers' organisations supported Brexit. Sunak's rise to PM is a source of pride for some Indian Hindu groups. These trends align with the 2019 Carnegie study, highlighting religious polarisation among South Asian voters.
2) Why Does the South Asian Vote Matter in UK General Elections?
The South Asian vote holds significant sway in UK general elections, particularly in urban areas like Leicester, Birmingham, and Bradford. These communities have sufficient numbers to impact the gap between the two main parties. For instance, the Conservative Party hopes to see a reversal of the national trend in Leicester by gaining seats through increased support from Hindu voters.
The South Asian voting bloc comprises 3-4 million people of South Asian origin, primarily from Punjab and Kashmir in Pakistan, Gujarat in India, Eastern Bangladesh, and Tamil areas of Sri Lanka. While they are spread across the UK, their concentration in certain boroughs and suburbs of London, as well as the greater Birmingham and Manchester metro areas, Bradford in Yorkshire, and Leicester and the Midlands, makes them pivotal in influencing constituency-level swings and the overall national voting trend.
3) Have there been any recent trends or changes in the voting behaviour of South Asian British voters, and can you highlight key constituencies where their vote has been particularly influential in deciding election outcomes?
There has been a shift towards the Conservative Party among British Hindus, driven by direct cultivation efforts from top Tories like Cameron, Johnson, Goldsmith, and Blackman. British Muslims have increasingly moved from Labour to independents and the Reform Party, due to dissatisfaction with responses to Islamophobia and vilification in the press. Palestine is a significant issue for British Muslims, and immigration concerns affect all South Asians. Modi personally, and the BJP's propaganda in the UK, have both been influential in breaking Labour's electoral hold over British Hindus, who now vote for the Tories in larger numbers than previous.
4) What are some key issues that are particularly important to South Asian voters? How do these issues influence their voting behaviour?
South Asian voters may have common interests in issues of immigration and visas more generally, but beyond that, they are fragmented. A section of voters across all communities are facing the same issues as other British voters. But beyond that, there is fragmentation: Palestine and Islamophobia for South Asian Muslims; for many Hindu voters that Modi and Hindutva should not be criticised; for some (again, not by any means a majority) Sikhs, the issue of Khalistan and human rights (which is not so much of an issue in India); issues of political asylum and support for the curry economy, including ability to bring skilled staff.
5) Looking ahead to general elections, what factors could enhance the political influence of the South Asian British community?
In recent local elections and by-elections, the issue of Palestine has impacted Labour's lead. Additionally, candidate selection and endorsements by prominent South Asians will be crucial. The Tories are expected to leverage Hindutva to gain votes from some Hindu voters. Any party promising a better visa regime for students and skilled workers, along with Asian-friendly immigration reform, is likely to do well among British South Asians.
