A UK election is six weeks away, now in full swing as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak finally announced the election date.
For the ruling Conservatives, the contest will primarily serve as a referendum on their 14 years in power—a period marked by continuous political upheaval with consecutive prime ministers coming and going at a remarkable rate. On the other hand, for Labour and its leader Keir Starmer, this campaign is about reminding voters of the past while presenting Labour as the solution for the future and convincing them that Labour can deliver the change they seek.
When it comes to other parties like the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Greens, these parties will most likely be costing the Conservatives as was witnessed in the by-elections. The Liberal Democrats aim to disrupt the 2024 general election, by making further gains in former Conservative strongholds.
While it is clear that the main push and pull is between the conservatives and the Labours, parties like Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, etc play an important role. Pratik Dattani, Managing Director of Economic Policy Group feels that the votes being divided by the smaller parties is the biggest advantage for the Conservatives, “because Starmer’s party is not seen as Left enough after his courting of Blue Wall Tory voters. That will not result in the Lib Dems and Greens winning more seats, but it could narrow Labour’s changes in several marginal seats.
“Reform’s target is squarely the Conservative party’s seats. In many parts of the country, Tory seats may be a two-horse race between Labour and Reform, which the Tories pushed to third.”
Decoding Sunak's early election call
Despite having up until January 2025 to hold the elections, Sunak’s announcement although anticipated, came as a surprise as most polls show the Tories trailing the opposition Labour Party by double-digit percentage points. While many believe the reason behind this to be an internal conflict within the Conservative Party, with rumours of no confidence motion being rife, others believe that the drop in inflation, a return to economic growth and lowering net migration prompted the decision.
According to Pratik, “Conventional wisdom would say that Rishi announced the election now because he saw economic statistics getting worse in the coming quarter, which would have dampened his chances even more. But in reality, I think he just had enough of the job. He’s been snappy and irritable at PMQs recently, so maybe he just decided it was time.”
Sunak made history as the first Indian-origin Prime Minister of the UK but Pratik believes that his skin colour should not be the deciding factor for his return to No 10. “We need to stop assessing a candidate on the colour of their skin and instead assess them on the merits of their performance.”
Critiquing Sunak’s leadership, he said, “Rishi fell into the rabbit hole of trying to appease the Right of the party and failed, with expensive policy flops such as the Rwanda immigration policy. Labour’s poll lead over the Tories has remained persistent because Rishi has not been able to articulate what he stands for, whether he is a Right-winger as he seems desperate to appear, or he is Centre-Right as he appeared during his leadership campaign.”
Bikash Nepal came to the UK from Nepal in 2009 as a student and now runs a successful business in the country. Contrary to Pratik, he feels that while Sunak is worthy of a chance, the country is not ready to give a chance to a person of colour. “Personally, I believe he is a deserving candidate, as he understands economics and knows how to make crucial decisions for the better future of the country. He is the right man for Prime Minister. However, when there is a general election and the public votes, there is no way a brown man can become Prime Minister. No matter how much good he has done for the country, in the end, colour will matter”, he said.
The Indian diaspora
The Indian diaspora in the UK, now the largest immigrant group in the country with an estimated 1.9 million people, making up 3.1% of the population, is young, fast-growing, and relatively well-educated. In 2024, the diaspora is more aware of its power and will once again play a major part.
Historically, Labour made significant contributions to the independence of India; after the party took control in 1945, Atlee made Indian Independence one of his primary mandates. In turn, the diaspora remained loyal to Labour for many years. However, this trend has shifted since 2012. Reports indicate that Asian voters are increasingly aligning with the broader public, with Hindu voters drifting towards the Conservative Party, especially since 2015. The diaspora played an important role in the democratic process in both the 2015 and 2019 elections and the continuous victories of Conservatives, one of them a landslide.
According to Dr Subir Sinha, Director of the SOAS South Asia Institute, “The South Asian voting bloc comprises 3-4 million people of South Asian origin, primarily from Punjab and Kashmir in Pakistan, Gujarat in India, Eastern Bangladesh, and Tamil areas of Sri Lanka. While they are spread across the UK, their concentration in certain boroughs and suburbs of London, as well as the greater Birmingham and Manchester metro areas, Bradford in Yorkshire, and Leicester and the Midlands, makes them pivotal in influencing constituency-level swings and the overall national voting trend.”
Where do community stakeholders stand?
Within the South Asian communities and various other stakeholders affecting the power play, there is a different wavelength with the government. As a minority within the minority groups, the Nepalese community seeks participation in all sectors as they primarily remain limited to the security and hospitality industries for work and business.
Rishi Sunak recently hosted the Nepalese community at No 10 to celebrate the 100 years of UK-Nepal Friendship treaty. Bikash thinks that it was a great initiative on the Prime Minister’s part. He said, “The Nepalese community has grown massively in the last 10-12 years. This small gesture was greatly appreciated by the wider Nepalese community, as it was the first time any British Prime Minister had done something specifically for them.
“There have been a few notable developments during the Conservative Party's tenure, as they have been in power for 14 years. We have yet to see a Labour government make its contributions.”
With all the positives, there yet remains the issue of Gurkha pension. Bikash shares that despite various discussions taking place during this government's tenure, no satisfactory outcomes have been reached. “The UK is known for its principles of fairness, equal opportunity, and equal pay. However, when it comes to the Gurkhas, their pensions are not the same as their British counterparts. Both groups perform the same job and fight to protect the UK, so why the disparity? This is a very unfair practice that needs to be addressed by the government”, he said.
According to Bikash, the majority of the Nepalese diaspora supports the Labour Party, as they are perceived to be more immigrant-friendly. “However, in recent years, many Nepalese individuals have joined the Conservative Party and have succeeded in local elections. Some have even been elected as local mayors”, he said.
Major bets on NHS but how practical is the approach?
A major Stakeholder in the upcoming elections is the NHS and all the contesting parties have major pledges, ranging from easier GP access to ending waiting lists. However, Dr Joydeep Grover, a consultant emergency physician and a member of the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin (BAPIO), believes that despite whoever wins, the NHS needs to be left alone.
He said, “It's the constant churning and changing of policies and direction that causes a significant loss of momentum. The NHS is the largest employer in the United Kingdom, and each new leader brings new thoughts, ideas, and ways of doing things. By the time the NHS adapts to one leader's vision, a new leader often arrives with different priorities, causing further disruption. Left to manage itself, the NHS would likely operate much more efficiently.
“When reviewing party pledges for the NHS, we see common themes: promises of more doctor appointments, easier access to GPs, more operations, and better dental care. However, it's crucial that any reforms are grounded in practical input from those who work within the system. If changes are necessary, they should be made in consultation with frontline workers rather than through top-down directives, which often create more problems than they solve.”
Election turbulence puts key reforms on hold
With the election looming, Parliament will dissolve on May 30, subjecting public bodies to purdah rules that prevent actions influencing election matters. The government’s City reform initiatives, including the British ISA and Pisces private market, face uncertainty following Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to hold an early election in July.
Treasury sources confirmed the shelving of the retail sale of NatWest shares, previously aimed at revitalising UK retail investment. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's plans for a British ISA will also be delayed until after the election. The launch of the Pisces market, developed with the London Stock Exchange to enhance private companies' access to UK capital markets, is also in question.
Important school policies, such as the teacher pay deal and 'inadequate' Ofsted reports, are also likely to be delayed. If Labour wins, several proposed policies, including minimum service levels, will be scrapped, causing disruption as schools close to be used as polling stations. The workload reduction taskforce's recommendations and the Department for Education’s update of its 2019 recruitment and retention strategy will be postponed.
Ongoing consultations on transgender guidance, unregistered provision protections, and sex education lessons will also be affected, with Labour already planning to scrap the minimum service levels consultation if they win.
The importance of Scotland
Scotland is currently being seen as one of the important factors that will affect elections. Both Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative leader Rishi Sunak aim to end the era of Scottish National Party dominance in Scottish politics with this election.
While everyone can make an effort, the current political scenario will have an effect. According to British political scientist John Curtice, the Labour Party's chances of winning a significant number of seats north of the border haven't looked this promising since the 2014 independence referendum. He said, “The installation of John Sweeney as the SNP leader hasn't, on its own, made a significant impact on turning around the party's fortunes. Polls conducted since the fall of Humza Yousaf show Labour consistently five to six points ahead. Given the geography of party support, this could translate into Labour picking up about 30 seats from the SNP, potentially more than 18.
“The SNP has a lot to do to turn things around. Many of Labour's potential gains are quite marginal, meaning that if the SNP manages to catch up, the scales could tip in their favour. It's all very much on a knife-edge, with the balance currently tilted towards Labour.”
Discussing the importance of Scotland in the upcoming elections, he finds that things are currently difficult to determine. “The outcome of the election largely depends on what happens in England and Wales. If UK-wide polls are accurate and Labour maintains a 21-point lead, the results in Scotland may become irrelevant as Labour would secure a substantial overall majority. However, if Labour's lead narrows significantly, Scotland's role could become crucial. Currently, Labour's potential gains in Scotland seem marginal, but if the SNP catches up, the balance could shift”, he said.
