A new exclusive poll for The Daily Telegraph has predicted that following a collapse in support for Brexit, men are now backing the campaign to stay in EU. The Remain campaign is on 55%, while Leave campaign is on 42% and has a 13 point lead with just one month until the referendum, the ORB poll has predicted.
Amongst all voters, the Remain campaign now has a 20-point lead, with 58 per cent of voters saying they back the pro-EU campaign.
The poll has also found that men, especially Tory voters and over-65s are increasingly turning to the pro-EU campaign after previously supporting a Brexit in much larger numbers.
However, Leave retains its lead over Remain on immigration, with 50% of voters believing that the Brexit campaign is best placed to “improve the UK’s immigration system”, compared to only 29% who believe the same about the pro-EU campaign.
The market on Tuesday, as we went to press, demonstrated increasing sensitivity to Britain’s EU referendum, pushing sterling sharply higher on the back of the latest opinion poll at the same time as driving up the cost of insuring against a Brexit-induced run on the pound.
The key arguments for and against staying in the EU - in a nutshell, according to The Daily Telegraph are as following:.
IMMIGRATION
Leave: Britain can never control immigration until it leaves the EU, as EU citizens have an automatic right to live in Britain due to freedom to move around freely.
Stay: Leaving will not solve the migration crisis but bring it to Britain’s doorstep because border controls from the Continent will move from Calais in France to Dover in UK.
CRIME
Leave: The European Arrest Warrant allows British citizens to be extradited and charged for crimes in foreign courts, often for minor offences. Exit would stop this.
Stay: Rapists, murders and other serious criminals who convict offences in Britain can only be returned once fleeing abroad thanks to the European Arrest Warrant. Exit would stop justice being done.
TRADE
Leave: Britain’s links with the EU are holding back its focus on emerging markets – therefore there is no major trade deal with China or India. Leaving would allow the UK to diversify its international links.
Stay: 44% of Britain’s exports go to other EU countries. Putting up barriers with the countries that Britain trades with most would be counterproductive.
LAW
Leave: Too many of Britain’s laws are made overseas by dictates passed down from Brussels with rulings upheld by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). UK courts must become sovereign again.
Stay: The exit campaign has over-exaggerated how many laws are determined by the European Commission. It is better to shape EU-wide laws from the inside rather than walking away.
JOBS
Leave: The danger to jobs has been over-exaggerated. By incentivising investment through low corporation tax and other perks Britain can definitely flourish like the Scandinavian countries outside the EU.
Stay: Around 3mn jobs are linked to the EU and will be plunged into uncertainty if voters support Brexit, as businesses would be less likely to invest if the country was outside Europe.
PROSPERITY
Leave: Britain does not need the EU to prosper internationally. By re-engaging with the Commonwealth the UK can have just as much clout as it does from inside the EU.
Stay: As Nick Clegg said, Britain will be “drifting off into the mid-Atlantic” if it leaves the EU. In a globalising world the UK’s interests are best protected by remaining part of the EU block.
FINANCE
Leave: London will remain a leading financial centre outside the EU and banks will still want to be headquartered in Britain due to low tax rates.
Stay: Banks will flee the UK and the City of London collapse if Britain votes for exit, because the trading advantages of being inside the EU help boost banks' profits.
SOVEREIGNTY
Leave: The British Parliament is no longer sovereign. With the EU hell-bent on “ever closer union” and further economic integration likely after the euro crisis, it is best to call it quits before ties deepen.
Stay: In a globalised world, every country must work closer with others if the want to flourish economically. A Little Englander desire for isolation will undermine the UK, plus the PM might have won an opt-out to “ever closer union” come the referendum.
DEFENCE
Leave: Britain could soon be asked to contribute to a EU Army, with reports suggesting Angela Merkel may demand the Prime Minister’s approval in return for other concessions. That would erode the UK’s independent military force and should be opposed.
Stay: European countries together are facing the threats from Isil, terrorism and a resurgent Russia. Working together will help UK to combat these challenges.
