The Brexit issue has taken Britain by storm- in fact much to everybody's surprise, as the Tory party is now divided between the supporters and non supporters of Great Britain leaving the EU.
Negotiations between Britain and the European Union had kept Prime Minister David Cameron up all night over the weekend. However he emerged to have secured a 'special status' for Britain in Europe, after the two day summit in Brussles. The date of the voting has been decided to be 23 June.
PM Cameron of course had to make compromises to win his deal, and faces a major political test, as his allies fear the justice secretary Michael Gove, a friend of the Prime Minister's campaign for Britain to exit the EU may have strong affects. London Mayor Boris Johnson has joined Mr Gove too- campaigning for 'Leave the EU' quite vocally. It is believed his wife, Marina Wheeler, who is half Indian, is one of the main driving force behind Boris to join the 'Leave' campaign.
Calling for the voters to be unafraid to leave the EU Boris wrote in Daily Telegraph: “If the 'Leave' side wins, it will indeed be necessary to negotiate a large number of trade deals at great speed. But why should that be impossible?
“We have become so used to Nanny in Brussles that we have become infrantilised, incapable of imagining an independent future.”
Though Bo Jo's entry has brought a lot of excitement to the 'In and Out' campaign, it is widely alleged that this move is Boris's big step towards his own ambition to be the next Tory party leader. Though David Cameron has been able to put Bo Jo in his place, but what the Prime Minister has failed to control is the plummeting sterling pound, that has his its seven-year dollar low.
Who in Britain wants to leave, and who wants to remain?
According to the Daily Telegraph, while the predictable right-left divide on the European Union remains, differences across geography and class make for a complex referendum campaign. Those living in Scotland, with a university education or aged below 30 are most likely to want to stay in the EU, according to new polling data released by YouGov.
While there seems to be no gender gap at all, the choices depend on population, geography, age, political leanings and education.
According to YouGov "one of the biggest challenges facing the pro-EU camp will be to enthuse the under 30s, who are mostly pro-membership but traditionally least likely to vote at all, while the ‘leave’ camp needs to maximise turnout among Brexit-inclined working-class voters".
Scotland is the most pro-EU region in the UK
- The YouGov survey shows that Scotland is most in favour of staying in the EU, with 60% of respondents wishing to remain.
- The least positive region about EU membership is East Anglia where 53% want to leave.
- London was the second most enthusiastic region for EU membership with a 55-45% split.
While the Scottish population in total is no more than 9 million, the population in London alone is over 8 million. In total at the moment six UK regions back continued EU membership compared to five where a majority of voters support the leave campaign.
Greens love the EU while Ukip hates it
The poll also examined all the major parties and voters' voting intentions.
- Conservative and Labour voters were the most divided on the issue - with Tories erring towards leaving the EU and the majority of Labour voters wishing to remain.
- Unsurprisingly, among Ukip voters, the EU is incredibly unpopular, with 72 per cent wishing to leave.
- Green party voters were most in favour of continued EU membership.
It is believed MPs are now equally divided between in, out and not decided about this campaign. Each MP only holds one vote, whereas the real power lies in the hands of the British people, who have the liberty to choose their future.
Education v/s working class
The poll has found that the University educated people are most likely to want to stay in the EU, with 62% of graduates wishing to remain in Europe. The educated diaspora, now that majority supports the Conservatives, the votes are also believed to be wavering between 'stay' or 'leave' campaign for obvious reasons.
Reactions from Asians
V Wagh, Professional: “Controlled immigration and Cap on benefits for EU immigrants should be first and foremost. Keeping our country to the disposal of EU union with create more stress on the economy. As it is we are stretched beyond capacity.”
A Tripathi, Professional: “Brexit will definitely have some adverse effects for example:
1) Between 3-4 million UK jobs are linked to our membership to EU.
2) Nearly half of all UK exports is to EU.
3) Govt has put measures to cut benefits to EU immigrants. They have made them conditional. UK's annual contribution to EU is £340 per household while we get £3000 per household back which is 10 times.
4) Being in EU means cheaper prices in shops, flights, lower phone charges when traveling in Europe.
5) EUs investment in UK is an avg of £66 million per day which will be lost.
6) Last but not the least David Cameron has been speaking of increased risk of terrorism as intelligence sharing will stop.
“On the other hand, moving out of EU will mean greater control of our borders, freedom to trade with emerging economies of the world and we will no longer have to abide by 64% of the laws made in Brussels. In my opinion, advantages of staying in EU far outweigh the disadvantages and Brits must make an informed decision.”
J Vyas, Professional: “EU citizens do seek Health and Social care (Adults and Children - family) benefits, they are highly demanding community, many of the them don't speak English, though they don't have to appear for any English Language tests and they ask for interpreters services whilst using such services that attracts tax payers money. They seek maximum benefits with very minimum or less contribution to the Tax system of the Country. The NHS services used by the EU citizens living in the UK is the prime example of unfair utilisation of public funds.
“Immigration is another one, there are clear discriminatory provisions for non-EUs. For EU immigrants they are entitled for majority of benefits and no questions asked, this is without any NI or tax contribution. Whereas, non-EUs who work hard and pay tax and NI regularly have to go through many hardships and difficult (discriminatory) process outlined by the Home Office.
“Business from and within EU countries are probably easy as compared to the business from the non-EU countries, again the immigration law for business is complicated, complex, time and more money consuming.
“Whilst we all know that people who are immigrants from non-EU country i.e. from India, Pakistan etc. are very hard workers and paying NI and taxes to the Government, and they have very little access to the benefits. Until they became British Citizens, they are under immigration control and constantly working extra hard to meet the need. However, this simply doesn't apply to EU citizens who come to live in the UK, they have full access to the system of housing, benefits, health and social care etc.”
M Raj, Professional: “Whether it be social or employment laws, trade or farm policies, influence of London City over financial and non-eu market, UK has ensured its interest are protected. More so in the recent deal negotiated by David Cameron, I wonder what would make people ever satisfied moving away from the EU.”
The pros and cons of leaving the EU
According to The Week, the greatest uncertainty associated with leaving the EU is that no country has ever done it before, so no one can predict the exact result. Nevertheless, many have tried.
Trade: One of the biggest advantages of the EU is free trade between member nations, making it easier and cheaper for British companies to export their goods to Europe. Some business leaders think the boost to income outweighs the billions of pounds in membership fees Britain would save if it left the EU. The UK also risks losing some of its negotiation power internationally by leaving the trading bloc, but it would be free to establish trade agreements with non-EU countries.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage believes Britain could follow the lead of Norway, which has access to the single market but is not bound by EU laws on areas such as agriculture, justice and home affairs. But others argue that an "amicable divorce" would not be possible.
The Economist has reported that Britain would still be subject to the politics and economics of Europe, but would no longer have a seat at the table to try to influence matters.
Open Europe, a study by the think-tank, which wants to see the EU radically reformed, found that the worst-case "Brexit" scenario is that the UK economy loses 2.2% of its total GDP by 2030. However, it says that GDP could rise by 1.6% if the UK could negotiate a free trade deal with Europe and pursued "very ambitious deregulation".
Investment: The Week has reported that the general view is that inward investment could slow in the lead up to the vote due to the uncertainty of the outcome and its consequences, following the precedent set ahead of the Scottish independence referendum in 2014. Longer term, there are diverging views: pro-Europeans reckon the UK's status as one of the world's biggest financial centres will come under threat if it is no longer a seen as a gateway to the EU for the likes of US banks, while Brexit campaigners argue London's unique appeal will not be diminished.
Barclays has put forward a different view, which will be seen as positive by those advocating a vote to leave. It reckons the departure of one of the union's most powerful economies would hit its finances and also boost populist anti-EU movements in other countries, the Daily Telegraph says. This would open a "Pandora's box" that could lead to the "collapse of the European project".
In this event, the UK could be seen as a safe haven from those risks, attracting investors, boosting the pound and reducing the risk that Scotland would "leave the relative safety of the UK for an increasingly uncertain EU".
- Jobs: Free movement of people across the EU opens up job opportunities for UK workers willing to travel and makes it relatively easy for UK companies to employ workers from other EU countries. Ukip says this prevents the UK "managing its own borders". But, writing for the LSE, Professor Adrian Favell says limiting this freedom would deter the "brightest and the best" of the continent from coming to Britain, create complex new immigration controls and reduce the pool of candidates employers can choose from.
- Regulations: Eurosceptics argue that the vast majority of small and medium sized firms do not trade with the EU but are restricted by a huge regulatory burden imposed from abroad. However, others warn that millions of jobs could be lost if global manufacturers, such as car makers, move to lower-cost EU countries, while British farmers would lose billions in EU subsidies.
- Universities: More than 100 university leaders have signed a letter published in the Sunday Times, backing the campaign for Britain to stay in Europe. They are supported by Jo Johnson, the Universities Minister, and the brother of London Mayor Boris Johnson. The Vice Chancellors of the universities, including Oxford and Cambridge have said: a British exit from the EU will be catastrophic for universities and scientific research. They warned Brexit would cost tens of millions of pounds in funding, result in British job losses and leave universities struggling to compete on the world stage.
Defence: Defence Secretary MichaelFallon, told Radio 4 that the UK benefitted from being part of international partnerships, such as the European Union, Nato and the United Nations.
He rejected claims by former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, one of six Cabinet ministers campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, that the UK's membership actually exposed it to greater security risks, pointing out that the EU had taken the lead in confronting Russia over its annexation of Crimea and Iran over its nuclear programme.
Research briefings in the Parliament suggests that acting through the EU means a larger aid budget, the promise of access to the largest consumer market in the world and a louder political voice. All of these can be significant ‘soft power’ tools in the pursuit of European interests.
If the UK no longer co-ordinated its policy with Member States, it would lose access to these shared tools. However, many UK actions are taken in conjunction with the US rather than the EU.
In terms of military power and projection, a UK withdrawal would more likely place the EU at a disadvantage, with fewer assets and capabilities at its disposal, particularly certain strategic assets such as tactical airlift and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. Britain may lose some of its military influence – many believe that the US would consider Britain to be a less useful ally if it was detached from Europe.
Immigration: Depending on the nature of any future EU-UK relationship, leaving the EU could have significant implications for the rights of UK citizens to travel to and live in EU/European Economic Area (EEA) Member States, and for EU/EEA nationals wishing to come to the UK.
On the other hand, if the UK were to negotiate a relationship with the EU similar to the EEA states or Switzerland, it might find that it did not have any greater scope to control EU immigration to the UK than it did as an EU Member State.
The UK already maintains its own border controls. It is not part of the internal border-free Schengen Area, and Border Force officers conduct checks on EU/EEA travellers crossing UK ports of entry, as well as British citizens and non-EU/EEA nationals.
It has not opted in to EU measures facilitating legal migration of third-country migrants. But the UK recognises that there are benefits to practical co-operation and information-sharing with other Member States, for example to strengthen responses to organised immigration crime and current and future migratory pressures.
COMMENTS FROM MPS AND PEERS
I support British membership of a reformed European Union and feel that it is important that the country remains in the EU for both economic and security reasons.
The UK receives an average of £26.5 billion of investment every year from other EU member states and over 200,000 British companies export to the EU, which is the largest single market in the world.
Additionally, in order to tackle the security issues of international terrorism and cross-border crime, I consider cooperation, membership of relevant watch lists and joint action with our European neighbours to be the best strategy.
Rt Hon Keith Vaz, MP
Chair of Home Affairs Committee
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Half a million jobs in London directly depend on Europe. As a city we export more than £12 billion a year to Europe. London acts as a bridge between Asia and Europe. That’s why the prospect of Britain leaving Europe is so catastrophic for businesses and for all Londoners, and why I will be showing leadership and campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU.
I am running to be Mayor of London because our city is at a crossroads and we need clear leadership to face down the challenges of the future. We need a Mayor who will stand up for the best interests of the capital — fighting for more jobs and growth, and keeping Londoners safe.
Sadiq Khan MP
Labour’s candidate for Mayor of London
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The European Union is not perfect but, on balance, I believe Britain is stronger, safer and better off in the EU than outside. The UK is a magnet for inward investment and one of the key reasons foreign companies, including Indian and Chinese ones, give for investing in the UK is that it is a bridgehead into the EU single market. Without that access, these investors would think twice about further investment into the UK. Almost all the British Asians and British Asian-run businesses I have spoken to share the view Britain is at its best when we our engaging on the world stage and through the EU.
Alok Sharma MP, Reading West
Prime Minister's Infrastructure Envoy to India
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I am strongly in favour of remaining in the European Union. Labour’s goal of shared prosperity for British people is best served by remaining in the EU. Leaving would massively increase uncertainty for British business. That would lead to reduced investment and cuts in jobs and living standards. It is inevitable that trading would be more difficult for British businesses and costs would be higher.For Asian businesses across the country, leaving Europe could have a greater negative impact on imports and exports – and that cost be passed on to local families. We should celebrate the fact that we are a leading member of a union with 28 member states – an incredible achievement, when we see so much division and war. Twice in the last century the continent was at war. Working together is what has helped keep peace in Europe for over 70 years.
Seema Malhotra MP for Feltham & Heston
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
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In the global economy, Britain will be stronger, influential and better off in Europe. I have held this view ever since we joined the European Economic Community. We have continued to play a vital role in the European Union.We are a trading nation and only today a third of Britain's largest Companies have called on the Country to remain in Europe.
There is a clear risk to Britain's economy of leaving Europe. It would put jobs,investment, financial security and security of our country at risk.
The Asian community has an important role to play. We came to this country as economic migrants and help build a stronger economy for ourselves and our country. The issue is beyond party politics. Let us not get swayed by the internecine warfare in political structures. Let us make sure that generations to follow will continue to play a pivotal role by remaining in Europe.
Rt Hon Lord Dholakia PC.OBE.DL.
Deputy Leader, Liberal Democrats
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I have always and will continue to support that UK should remain in EU, same as I support that Scotland should remain as a part of the United Kingdom. I feel the European countries are small and they stand to gain much more together in terms of trade and security. David Cameron and other EU leaders have tried hard to compromise to reform immigration and the related issues. Unfortunately, not enough has been achieved. But, if we pull out of the Union, we will lose the opportunity for a free trade with the European countries.
Lord Loomba CBE
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Voting to leave the European Union would be a massive boost to UK-India relations...Remaining within the EU will mean the UK will be in a weaker position to forge the closer trading ties that would benefit the Indian and UK economies. Within the EU we do not have our own trade policy and have suffered as a result of the EU’s protectionist instincts and inward-looking and outdated looking approach to global politics. But by leaving the EU we can take back control over this vital area of policy. We can focus more on global trade and strengthening our relations with the Commonwealth and other countries. Importantly, an independent Britain free from the EU can ensure that we realise the full potential of our special relationship with India...
British business, including those businesses set-up and established by members of the diaspora living in the UK, are eager to access the Indian market and build mutually beneficial trade deals with businesses in India. Those new workers are also global consumers and the UK can provide more of the goods and services they want if it was outside of the EU. Although the focus of the Conservative Government on enhancing our relationship with India has led to an increase in trade since 2010, we could go further if we were not held back by the vested self-interests of the EU. Indeed, one of the reasons why our trading links with India were inadequate when we came to Government in 2010 was because of the focus that Britain had given to trade within Europe as a result of membership of the EU.
In contrast to what is happening in India, the European Union is on a downward spiral with high unemployment, little or no growth, and economies in crisis. While the EU is losing influence globally and becoming increasingly inward-looking, India is taking a leadership role on the world stage. The UK shares India’s outward-looking worldview and is keen to work more closely with India to support its ascent. In closer partnership together we can support more free trade and cooperate on other issues such as international security.
There are other advantages to leaving the EU too...The mass influx of migrants from Eastern Europe in particular has contributed to pressures on the UK’s housing stock, public services and infrastructure. Because we are unable to restrict migration from the EU, immigrants from non-EU countries have faced more restrictions to help ease the pressure from immigration. I know that many members of the Indian diaspora find it deeply unfair that other EU nationals effectively get special treatment. This can and will change if Britain leaves the EU.
Leaving the EU will help reinvigorate relations between the UK and India. It will also help the Indian diaspora living in the UK. As I was born and raised in an Indian family which owned local businesses, I know of the strong entrepreneurial spirit that is within our blood. The diaspora have a great reputation as business owners and entrepreneurs. However, like all businesses, they have been hit hard by bureaucracy, red tape and regulations from the EU...Billions of pounds that could be invested in creating new jobs and growth are instead swallowed up by these regulations. Leaving the EU will mean that we can set our own regulations for business and cut their costs...
Priti Patel MP
Prime Minister’s Champion of Indian Diaspora
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I have always been inclined to vote to exit Europe because I believe it will give us back control. We will be able to set our own laws and control our own borders which will have significant benefits for the UK. It will open up trading routes with other, more profitable markets, particularly with the Commonwealth –which Asian businesses in the UK will have a natural advantage in trading with.
Nevertheless, I think the Prime Minister should be congratulated for delivering the British people with a historic EU Referendum. Whilst I endorse the renegotiations, I don’t think I will ever get the opportunity to vote to exit Europe in my lifetime. This is our only chance, hence why in my opinion a BREXIT would always trump any renegotiation package.
Cllr Ameet Jogia, Harrow
