A new study modelled on UK school reopening alongside the loosening of restrictions across society, has found that a second wave of Covid-19 can be avoided if accompanied by a ‘Test Trace Isolate strategy’ with sufficiently broad coverage.
The study claims to be the first to provide quantification of the amount of testing and tracing that would be needed to prevent a second wave of Covid-19 in the UK under different school reopening scenarios (accompanied by a society-wide relaxation of lockdown measures) and in the presence of different test–trace–isolate strategies. It also said that reopening of schools and society alongside active testing of the symptomatic population (between 59% and 87% of people with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection across different scenarios), with effective contact tracing and isolation strategies, will prevent a second epidemic wave and avert a large number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. However, in the absence of a large-scale testing, contact tracing, and isolation strategy, having reopened schools partially in June, 2020, and reopening full time or in part-time rotas from September, 2020, alongside reopening society, is likely to induce a second pandemic wave of Covid-19 in the UK.
According to the findings, it suggests that “Reopening of schools can form part of the next step of gradual relaxing of lockdown if combined with a high-coverage test–trace– isolate strategy. It is currently unclear when the UK test– trace–isolate strategy will achieve sufficient coverage. This approach would be an alternative to intermittent lockdown measures, including further school closures while we await an effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2.”
