PM Theresa May will be renewing Tories' broken promises on limiting immigration by 100,000 if she returns to No 10. While visiting an Asian community campaign event in Harrow recently, May sought to end speculation stating “I think it is important that we continue, and we will continue, to say that we do want to bring net migration down to substantial levels. We believe that is the tens of thousands and of course once we leave the European Union we will have the opportunity to ensure that we have control of our borders here in the UK.”
But how feasible will the target be? Overhasty immigration cuts could mean damaging the economy, and that could be a bad policy. The target was proposed by David Cameron in the 2010 Tory manifesto, but was not met even after five years, in the 2015 manifesto.
May's target has been widely criticised, sitting uneasily on the rhetoric that the withdrawal from the EU will be a smooth process that does not risk labour deficit.
David Davis, the Brexit secretary said that social welfare, other public services, industry and the NHS will have to rely on immigrants for it to “continue to work.” Even with net migration running at nearly three times the desired level, the UK economy is at close to full employment.
Many are speculating that May might tweak the immigration numbers by removing foreign students from the count. Foreign students should not be included in the net immigration count as they are temporary visitors making an investment in their future and should not be discouraged from coming to the UK. Instead, the Home Office has tightened the rules so that foreign student visa numbers fell by 41,000 last year, a record lowest since 2002.
It is hard to see how May would meet the target, without significant reforms to the system for non-EU migrants; and a new approach will be needed for the highly skilled people important for the economy - students or those visiting families.
