Local Council and Mayoral Elections are around the corner in the UK and Sadiq Khan is commanding the lead in the upcoming London mayoral election, with 46% of voters supporting him compared to his Conservative rival Susan Hall's 27%.
According to data shared in a YouGov poll, Zoe Garbett of the Green Party stands with 9% of the vote, followed by Lib Dem Rob Blackie at 8%, and Howard Cox of Reform UK at 6%. Labour maintains a significant lead in Westminster voting intention at 55%, reflecting overall support for the party in the capital.
Despite Khan's lead, 53% of Londoners remain undecided about Susan Hall, indicating a lack of visibility and awareness of the Conservative candidate. Of those familiar with Hall, only 18% hold a favourable opinion. Sadiq Khan is enjoying a 39% approval rating, while 49% view him negatively. In contrast, Susan Hall is struggling to gain approval among voters, highlighting the Conservatives' challenge in presenting a viable alternative.
While Khan maintains a lead, only 36% of Londoners believe he has performed well as mayor, with 52% expressing dissatisfaction. The cost of living emerges as a significant factor influencing voter decisions, cited by 59% of respondents. Other important issues include crime and policing (41%) and housing (34%).
Expectations regarding Khan's impact on key issues vary, with many anticipating negative outcomes, particularly regarding transport costs and crime rates. The expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) remains a divisive issue, with 42% of Londoners supporting the change and 44% opposed. While Khan maintains a lead in the polls, concerns over key issues and dissatisfaction with his performance suggest that the mayoral election outcome remains uncertain.
Key factors influencing voters
This year, voters will not only have to carry their voter ID cards, but also carry identity proof such as a passport, driving licence, Older or Disabled Person's bus passes, and Oyster 60+ cards amongst 22 options provided by the government.
In the recent Ipsos Political Pulse survey conducted from April 21st to 24th, English voters were asked about the key factors influencing their decisions in the upcoming local elections. 42% of respondents emphasise the significance of local council performance in their voting decisions, while 41% prioritise promises made by local parties. National issues, including party policies and government performance, are also deemed important by 33% and 31% of voters, respectively.
Top Concerns include the cost of living (52%) and the state of the NHS (45%) are the primary concerns for voters, followed by the condition of infrastructure (38%) and crime prevention (38%). However, there are notable differences across age groups, with younger voters prioritising economic and healthcare issues, while older voters focus more on infrastructure and crime.
Regarding party expectations, the public anticipates a shift in local council seats, with 55% predicting losses for the Conservatives and 45% expecting gains for Labour. Labour is perceived as outperforming the Conservatives in various local priorities, including listening to residents (24% vs. 13%), delivering value for money (22% vs. 14%), and improving local quality of life (22% vs. 15%).
Polling data from Savanta's recent survey for the Centre for London earlier last month showed that more than half (58 per cent) of Londoners questioned think that Khan has done badly at dealing with knife crime and gangs. These figures were more pronounced among older respondents and people who had voted Conservative in 2019.
According to the data, 47 per cent of 18 – 34-year-olds think that Khan has done badly on this metric, compared to 78 per cent of those over the age of 55. Among those who voted Tory at the last general election the number was 71 per cent, compared to 55 per cent who voted Labour.
Community speaks over voting and policies
Dr Chamu Kuppuswamy of Hertfordshire University, Convenor of the Environmental Law and Bio-law Interest Groups at the European Society International at the European Society of International Law told the newsweekly, “This should be an interesting election to watch, for the obvious reasons that they are a harbinger of what is to come nationally. I am certainly putting Environmental issues on the top, air pollution and remedial measures like the ULEZ need to be enhanced. Much more should be done urgently to tackle pollution and climate change. I would like to see action on climate change as an important issue in the national elections, we cannot afford to take our eyes off the ball while focusing on the cost of living crisis and wars, I will be closely watching what the key national parties will have to offer on this, given that the government has been disappointing in delivering on climate change.”
President Hindu Forum of Britain & Trustee of the HFB Charity, Trupti Patel told Asian Voice, “Representing the Hindu community, we expect our political representatives to have a clean track record in values incorporating equality, just policies, no appeasement towards single faith or community and build the nation towards 'Ram Rajya'. In Greater London along with ULEZ, the safety and security of residents from serious crimes like knife attacks and persistent hate crimes towards Hindus will play a major role in the Hindu community as to who stands with them, who raises their concern to the authorities and chooses accordingly as their representative. Although the cost of living will also be a major factor in choosing a member of parliament, depending on what Political Parties are proposing to combat it, people will need to assess as to 'do I vote for a short-term gain or help in longer run to keep building the nation towards more stable and safe country’. In conclusion, we will vote for the candidates by their credentials.”
Surge in women candidates for Local Elections
A record number of women candidates are vying for positions in the upcoming local elections, signalling a notable shift in political participation. As of now, 562 women have registered to contest the elections, marking a significant increase from previous years. This figure exceeds the total number of women candidates from the previous election cycle, with three weeks remaining until the nomination deadline.
Data compiled by Maynooth University lecturer Dr Adrian Kavanagh reveals that the current tally of women candidates stands at 33.2% of all declared candidates, totalling 1,695 individuals thus far. This surge reflects a growing trend of female engagement in local politics. For context, the number of women contesting elections has steadily increased over the years, from 314 in 2009 to 561 in 2019.
Despite the absence of gender quotas for local election candidates, there is a notable push for gender balance in political representation. The upcoming general election mandates that 40% of candidates must be women, highlighting the importance of gender diversity in political decision-making.
The rise in women candidates can be attributed to various factors, including increased awareness of the impact of local and national policies on communities, especially amidst the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. Many women are actively seeking avenues to contribute to decision-making processes and address issues affecting their localities.
However, despite the positive momentum, gender disparities persist in local government representation. Currently, only one in four councillors are women, and 41 local authority areas lack any female representation. This underscores the ongoing need for efforts to promote gender equity in political leadership roles.
The big picture
The upcoming local elections on 2 May feature contests for 2,660 council seats across 107 areas, with both Labour and the Conservatives defending nearly 1,000 seats each. While politicians focus on local issues like bins and potholes, these elections also serve as national indicators, setting the stage for the next general election. Many local election results will be announced overnight into Friday 3 May, with more expected to follow throughout the day, and a few to be announced over the weekend. Mayoral results will be declared on Friday and Saturday 4 May. The London Assembly elections will also be declared on Saturday.
Recent national polls suggest potential losses for the Conservatives in local seats, challenging their 2021 successes. Labour aims to capitalise on Conservative vulnerabilities, targeting areas like Redditch and Milton Keynes. The Liberal Democrats eye gains in traditional Conservative strongholds like Woking and West Oxfordshire. The Green Party seeks further gains in councils like Bristol and Norwich. Reform UK presents a wildcard element, contesting seats in Bolton and Hartlepool. Each party faces unique challenges and opportunities, shaping the landscape of the upcoming local elections and potentially influencing future parliamentary aspirations.
Pivotal moment for Sunak
Rishi Sunak faces a pivotal moment on May 2 as voters in England and Wales participate in significant local elections, with polls indicating a potential landslide defeat for his Conservative Party. There's a prevailing fear among some Tory MPs that Prime Minister Sunak could face a vote of no-confidence if the party suffers substantial losses, particularly in critical mayoral races like those in the West Midlands and Tees Valley. "If we lose 500 seats and both mayoralties, he’s in trouble," remarked one prominent Tory figure, highlighting the severity of the situation. Another added that while Sunak might survive such a challenge, his authority would be severely weakened.
The Conservative Party's electoral prospects appear grim compared to their performance in 2021 when they secured a national equivalent vote share of 40%. Recent polls, however, indicate a significant drop, with the Financial Times election poll tracker showing the Tories at 23.6%. With hundreds of seats potentially at risk, the party faces a challenging electoral landscape.
Meanwhile, Labour has seen a resurgence in polling, with their national vote share averaging 43.5%, a stark improvement from their 30% performance in 2021 when questions lingered about Sir Keir Starmer's leadership. Labour is defending 933 seats, positioning them as a formidable opponent in these elections.
The outcome of these elections could spell trouble for Sunak's leadership if Labour secures victories in key areas like London, West Midlands, and Tees Valley. A loss of 500 seats coupled with defeat in the mayoralties would intensify calls for a leadership change within the Conservative Party. Yet, Sunak's allies hint at the possibility of a snap general election in June to mitigate internal divisions, underscoring the high stakes of these local contests.
Will Labour clinch victory in all metro mayor elections?
Labour's incumbents, including Andy Burnham, Steve Rotheram, Tracy Brabin, Oliver Coppard, and Sadiq Khan, are likely to retain their positions. However, Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen face challenges amid lower party polling. A Labour clean sweep is improbable, but successful candidates will push for further regional investment.
Predictions suggest that Londoners will cast their votes for mayor, with Sadiq Khan aiming for a third term, alongside the members of the London assembly. "Everyone anticipates Sadiq Khan's victory, and there's little doubt about it," remarked Twyman. "However, if the margin is narrower than expected, it could offer some shielding for Rishi Sunak."
Strategists from both sides will scrutinise the outcomes in the commuter belt surrounding London, dubbed the "doughnut," where the Conservatives hope to leverage dissent against Khan's ultra-low emission zone.
