Britain is heading towards the most awaited general elections of the era, perhaps. The broadsheet, national tabloids and mainstream media are discussing the dire needs of a reform for this country, fearful politicians trying to protect their brand, some ostracising the immigrants for any fall and decay, problems of regionalism, religious fundamentalism– are leaving the electorates totally confused.
Looking at the last election, analysts initially felt that the 2015 would be a relatively straightforward. But the government now faces the most difficult task of negotiating devolution roughly 3.5 months before the general elections. Gurus and specialists are predicting a hung parliament, while others are speculating a Coalition between two or more parties, without exactly identifying them. Voters are not sure of the status of the Lib Dems in their lives any more, but Deputy PM Nick Clegg is sure that they are to make a come back as a part of any Coalition.
Labours believe the clear victory lies in their hands, while the Independent says that UKIP poses an unprecedented threat towards the Tories- whether by syphoning off votes or actually winning seats, leaving Cameron fighting on two fronts. The greatest dilemma that he faces- how will he remain the leader of the party, appeasing traditional Tory voters and MPs tempted by their line of reasoning, and simultaneously sticking to his own beliefs, differentiating the party from UKIP’s platform and keep its appeal to the middle ground?
This is further accelerated by his refusal to appear at the leaders' debate on tv, ahead of the general election unless the Green Party is also included. Mr Cameron reportedly told BBC that it was 'a question of fairness'. Perhaps it could refer to something bigger- a potential ally for a future Coalition?
The current proposals for the TV election debates only include the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP. The suggested schedule is for debates on 2 April, 16 April and 30 April, ahead of the election on 7 May.
The BBC reported that Labour leader Ed Miliband has said to that the PM "owes it to the people" to take part. UKIP leader Nigel Farage said the PM was "running scared", and allegedly called him a "chicken" on Twitter, the BBC reported. Mr Farage also claimed Mr Cameron was using the Greens "as an excuse" not to have a debate with UKIP, and said the debates should go ahead without him.
The Labour leader Mr Miliband also said Mr Cameron was "chickening out" and "trying to find any excuse to stop these debates happening", saying he should "stand on his record". Lib Dem Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said Mr Cameron should "stop ducking” and commit to taking part. He said the public expected the debates to take place.
Mr Cameron however rejected all the claims, pointing out that he took part in the leaders' tv debates in the run up to the 2010 election.
One of the main challenges that Mr Cameron faces is the radical demographic shift of Britain's ethnic minority vote, that will significantly determine the outcome of the 2015 election, according to a recent research.
A study by the cross-party group Operation Black Vote (OBV) reportedly found the number of seats where black and Asian voters could decide the outcome had rocketed by 70% compared with the 2010 election.
The party which has earlier accepted that it is struggling to win over ethnic voters, has tried to woo them by occasionally celebrating Asian festivals in the Parliament and the PM's residence, but the recent incidents like the Paris and Belgium attacks will be of particular concern to the Tories. The party secured only 16% of the minority vote at the last election, compared with 68% for Labour. Experts say the trend will continue, especially in the current scenario of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and the government backlash, more after the Community Secretary's letter to the mosques, and this may change the political dynamics in the upcoming general elections.
On Monday 19th, the FT has reported that City bosses have warned that the prospect of 'prolonged political gridlock' caused by an inconclusive general election in May is casting a cloud over the outlook for British business. According to a survey of some of the biggest names in the City of London, it was revealed that this situation could endanger the country's fragile economy. Several city bosses have reportedly signaled unease with Labour's perceived anti-business stance, while others are worried about the rising hostility towards immigration under a Tory led administration. At least 40% of City workers are estimated to be non British.
Though the PM's international ally the US President Barack Obama has poured praise on his economic strategy, describing him as a 'great friend', Harriet Harman, the Labour deputy leader concluded precisely- if Obama suggests that David Cameron has run the economy in a good way, then “the impact (it) will have is- most people will feel that Obama does not really know what is going on in this country.”
