In 2024, England delivered a political earthquake, sweeping away nearly two decades of Conservative rule in a furious reckoning at the ballot box. At that point of time, analysts argued the result was less a passionate embrace of Labour than a furious rejection of the Conservatives.
Less than two years on, the mood of the electorate appears to have shifted again from “anything but Conservative” to “anyone but Labour”. Voters are no longer rallying behind a single alternative force; instead, they are scattering across a fractured political landscape in search of something different altogether.
Across several London and Birmingham boroughs with significant South Asian populations, the 2026 local elections showed varied political outcomes, with Labour retaining strength in most areas, alongside pockets of Conservative and independent/Aspire success. Turnout ranged from around 34% to nearly 70%.
Brent, Newham, Hounslow, Ealing and Southall, and Tooting—areas with substantial Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities—largely returned Labour or Labour-leading councils, suggesting continued alignment in urban London boroughs. Harrow, with a notably high Indian population share of around 30%, stood out as a Conservative-held council despite Labour strength elsewhere. Tower Hamlets, with a large Bangladeshi population (34.6%), again delivered a victory for Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire, reflecting strong localised voting dynamics. Birmingham, with a sizeable Pakistani population (17%) and mixed South Asian communities, produced a hung council with Reform UK emerging largest.
While Labour remains dominant in most high-density South Asian areas, it lost councillors in all of these councils.
After all 136 councils declared their results in local elections, Labour emerged with control of 28 councils, a loss of 38, while its number of councillors fell by 1,498 to 1,068. Reform UK made the biggest gains, winning control of 14 councils for the first time and increasing its councillor tally by 1,452 to 1,454. The Liberal Democrats took control of 15 councils, up by one, and added 155 councillors to reach a total of 844. The Conservatives saw major setbacks, with their number of councils dropping by six to nine and losing 563 councillors, leaving them with 801 in total. The Green Party also recorded strong gains, taking control of five councils, up by five, and increasing its number of councillors by 441 to 587. Aspire won control of one council, gaining nine councillors to take its total to 33. Independents and other parties held no councils but increased their councillor numbers by 35 to 213, while Residents’ Associations remained without council control and lost 31 councillors, leaving them with 36. Meanwhile, the number of councils under no overall control rose sharply by 23 to 64.
This result is the rise of a volatile new era of multi-party politics, where old loyalties are crumbling and insurgent parties are filling the vacuum. No party has capitalised on that upheaval more dramatically than Reform UK, which has transformed public frustration into electoral momentum, emerging as the clearest beneficiary of Britain’s growing political disillusionment.
Reform UK’s rise reaches Britain’s Asian heartlands
When observers say Reform UK has capitalised on Britain’s political disillusionment, they are not just talking about traditionally Conservative towns or Brexit strongholds anymore. Increasingly, that shift is visible in areas with large British Asian populations too — a development that would have seemed politically improbable only a few years ago.
Polling by the Oxford-based think tank the 1928 Institute in October 2025 captured the scale of that transformation. Support for Reform UK among British Indians tripled in just one year, rising from 4 per cent to 13 per cent. Support for the Green Party also climbed sharply, from 8 per cent to 13 per cent, signalling not just a rejection of Labour or the Conservatives, but a deeper fragmentation of political loyalty itself.
Nowhere was that political earthquake felt more dramatically than in the Midlands. Reform UK stormed across the region, seizing councils, dismantling long-established voting patterns and pushing multiple authorities into no overall control as both Labour and the Conservatives haemorrhaged support.
Reform UK made some of its biggest breakthroughs in the Midlands during the local elections, showing that the party is now becoming a serious electoral force rather than simply a protest vote.
Key Reform UK gains in the Midlands
- Reform UK won its first council of the elections in Newcastle-under-Lyme, taking control from the Conservatives with a majority of four.
- The party also gained control of Sandwell and Walsall.
- In several councils, Reform gains pushed authorities into “no overall control”, meaning no single party had enough seats to govern alone.
Dudley: One of the biggest shocks
Dudley saw one of the most dramatic results of the election night.
- Reform UK won 22 seats.
- The gains came from the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Black Country Party.
- Conservatives held onto only two of the 25 seats being contested.
- Labour managed to retain just one seat.
- Although the Conservatives remained the largest party overall, they lost control of the council.
Labour and Conservatives lose ground
Elsewhere in the Midlands:
- Redditch moved from Labour control to no overall control after major Reform gains.
- Tamworth, another Labour-held council, also slipped into no overall control.
- Birmingham, Cannock Chase, Coventry, Dudley, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, Redditch, Rugby, Solihull and Tamworth all ended without overall control.
The results highlighted growing frustration with both Labour and the Conservatives in areas that traditionally switched between the two parties. Reform UK was able to turn that frustration into actual seats.
Brent: Labour stays largest, but weakened
In Brent, Labour remained the biggest party but suffered major losses.
- Labour won 26 seats, down by 23 from 2022.
- Conservatives increased to 11 seats.
- Liberal Democrats also reached 11 seats after strong gains.
- The Green Party won nine seats for the first time.
The results reflected a broader trend of voters moving away from traditional party loyalties.
Birmingham: A fragmented political map
Birmingham produced one of the clearest examples of Britain’s changing political landscape.
Across 101 seats in 69 wards:
- Reform UK won the highest number of seats with 23.
- Greens secured 19 seats.
- Labour and Conservatives won 16 seats each.
- Liberal Democrats won 12 seats.
- Independents secured 13 seats.
The outcome showed support spreading across multiple parties instead of being dominated by Labour and the Conservatives.
Shabana Mahmood, who has represented Birmingham Ladywood since 2010, admitted the results were a setback for Labour, saying Prime Minister Keir Starmer “has rightly acknowledged that we must do better.”
Ealing: An exception to the trend
Ealing was one of the few places where Reform UK failed to gain ground.
- Labour retained control with 46 councillors.
- Liberal Democrats won 13 seats.
- Conservatives and Greens won five seats each.
- One Independent councillor was elected.
Despite Reform UK contesting heavily, the party failed to win seats in Ealing.
Labour’s London fortress shows signs of cracking
Across London, Labour’s traditional dominance took a major hit in the 2026 local elections, with both Reform UK and the Green Party making strong gains in areas that were once considered safe Labour territory.
Key developments included:
- Green Party candidate Zoë Garbett winning the Hackney mayoralty in a symbolic defeat for Labour.
- The Greens also taking mayoralties in Lewisham and Waltham Forest.
- Lambeth, long seen as a Labour stronghold, falling into no overall control, with the Greens emerging as the largest party.
- The Green Party overturning Labour’s large majority in Lewisham and taking control of its third London council.
- The Conservatives reclaiming Westminster City Council from Labour.
- In Harrow council, the Conservatives secured a decisive victory, winning 42 seats with 48% of the vote. Labour suffered a heavy defeat, reduced to just 12 seats with 22% of the vote.
- The Tories also holding onto Kensington and Chelsea, Croydon and Bexley, despite Reform UK targeting some of these areas heavily.
At the same time, East London told a very different story; one centred on the growing political influence of Britain’s Bangladeshi community.
According to estimates:
- Around 80 councillors of Bangladeshi origin were elected across Tower Hamlets, Newham, Redbridge and Barking and Dagenham.
- Tower Hamlets alone elected 38 Bangladeshi-origin councillors, reinforcing its status as the political heartland of British Bangladeshis.
- Bangladeshi-origin candidates also won seats in Camden, Croydon, Brent, Ealing and Birmingham.
- In Tower Hamlets, Lutfur Rahman secured a fourth term as executive mayor, once again defeating Labour in one of its traditional strongholds.
Reflecting on the results, London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan said that while mid-term elections are often challenging for the party in government, what Labour experienced on Friday was “different in scale and nature.”
He added that the results reflected a deeper political shift, stating, “These results speak to a far-reaching disillusionment and fracturing in our politics, which cannot be downplayed, spun or dismissed.” The Mayor of London, whose relationship with the Labour leadership has reportedly become increasingly strained, also described the party’s performance in the capital as “bitterly disappointing.”
Taken together, the results suggest something much bigger than a difficult election for Labour or the Conservatives. Britain’s old two-party political system is beginning to weaken, with Reform UK emerging as a major disruptor, the Greens converting activism into electoral success, independents gaining influence in fragmented councils, and ethnic minority political representation continuing to grow across the country.
Fears over Reform UK’s rhetoric now very real
Reform UK’s strong gains in the local elections have unsettled Britain’s political establishment, but they have also triggered growing concern about the party’s rhetoric and what its rise could mean socially and politically. Critics argue that while the party has surged across councils in the Midlands and other regions, it has yet to demonstrate that it can govern effectively or responsibly.
Despite its electoral momentum, Reform UK remains far from forming a parliamentary majority, raising questions about whether it can deliver on its campaign promises. Skeptics point to looming challenges in areas such as housing, strained public services, and local authority finances, arguing that winning votes is very different from managing complex policy and budgetary pressures.
For many ethnic minority communities, particularly British Asians and Muslims, the party’s rise has also generated unease. Community groups and anti-racism organisations warn that Reform’s growing influence risks normalising divisive rhetoric and deepening social tensions. In Birmingham, Brummies United Against Racism described the results as “really concerning”, while Baroness Shaista Gohir of the Muslim Women’s Network said many people felt anxious about the future. In Scotland, where Reform won 17 seats, activists staged a “day of rage against Reform UK” protest in Glasgow amid fears over community cohesion.
These concerns have been amplified by controversies involving some newly elected councillors. Campaign group Hope Not Hate claims at least a dozen Reform representatives have been linked to Islamophobic, antisemitic or extremist social media posts. Among the most controversial cases, Stuart Prior, elected in Essex, has been accused of posting racist and anti-Muslim remarks online, while in Bolton, Derek Bullock—previously expelled twice from the Conservatives—has faced scrutiny over alleged offensive content linked to the Manchester Arena bombing.
Other councillors have also been criticised for sharing posts referencing Islamic law, extremist figures, or conspiracy theories.
