The British government has released an 83-page analysis depicting all possible changes to the GDP, tax revenue and trade in approximately 15 years from the end of the implantation of the Brexit deal. According to a Whitehall analysis released today, Britons are on the losing end under all Brexit scenarios with the economy will eventually up to 3.1 per cent smaller even if Prime Minister Theresa May derived her preferred outcome out of the negotiations. If the Treasury modelling of May's white paper proposals are to be believed, if Britain controls its borders after the exit and implements significant migration curbs, the economy would be between 1.9 and 3.1 per cent smaller.
The document also points out that May could struggle to agree a “frictionless” relationship after the move was rejected by some in the EU. In case of a no-deal, the British economy would be up to 10.7 per cent smaller in the event of significant migration curbs. Chancellor Philip Hammond has admitted that even May's Brexit deal will leave the UK worse off than staying in the EU, although “not much”. “If the consideration was the economy, then the analysis shows that clearly remaining in the European Union would be a better outcome for the economy but not by much. Clearly people don't look at the economy, they also look at the political and constitutional benefits of leaving the European Union,” he said in an interview today.
Labour MP for Wirral South, Alison McGovern said, “It took until this morning for the Chancellor to finally admit it: we would be better off staying in the EU. He confessed that the government's deal would bring impediments to trade. That means a threat to jobs. Less economic activity means less money for hospitals, schools, and police. And nobody put that on the side of their bus two years ago.”
There are some who have dismissed the Treasury’s forecasting record. A source from inside the European Research Group of MPs who support a hard Brexit said, “The government is happy to publish Treasury models no one takes seriously while refusing to publish the legal advice parliament instructed it to. Draw your own conclusions about the validity of each.” Former international development secretary accused the Treasury of perpetuating “Project Fear”. “We were told during the referendum campaign that we'd each lose £4,300 and that there would be a recession and higher unemployment. And yet we've seen record wage growth and record employment levels. If ministers spent time preparing for a no deal scenario, rather than dreaming up silly scare stories, we could all make a success of our post-Brexit future. It's time our government started betting on and believing in Britain. Let's be optimistic. We have a great future ahead of us.”
