The upcoming general elections has been identified as the most unpredictable for a century with a great possibility of a result like the hung parliament- without either side winning a majority or two main parties winning similar numbers of seats.
Constitutional experts claim the weeks following the election could prove much more important than those preceding it. However both David Cameron and Ed Miliband are praying that the minor party surge is only a matter of time, and the voters will soon turn to their natural selves, voting for one of the big two could be proved wrong.
In his column in The Sunday Telegraph, the Prime Minister wrote that Labour does not understand the importance of business. He writes, “Conservatives understand successful enterprise keeps our public services going...We're on the side of hard working people who want a job, who want to put food on the table, who want to get on, own a home and get decent public services....Labour's Britain is one of higher unemployment, more children growing up in households without a role model who works, and more of the misery we saw during the Great Recesssion.”
Speaking about enterprises and businesses, on Monday 9 February, 1000 leading City figures, business chiefs and entrepreneurs gathered in London's Grosvenor House Hotel on Park Lane for the party's fund raising event before the elections. Guests apparently paid upto £15,000 for a table, as the party needs at least £26mn to fight the poll. A report by FT earlier (on Thursday 5th February) stated that Tories rely more on City and hedge fund donors. Before the last election, donations between 2005 and 2010 amounted to £96.7mn. It is believed, total donations in May 2010- Jan 2015 would amount to £76.1mn, out of which the City and Hedge funders have contributed no less than 52% of the top 15 donations. Of course not without expectation of a return favour, maybe that of an approving policy or law. The party's close relationship with the City-goers, perhaps also undermines the needs of Britain's SMEs, amongst which many are of Asian origin.
Statistics suggest, there are an estimated 5.2 million businesses in the UK which employ 25.2 million people, and have a combined turnover of more than £3,500 billion. Small firms account for 99.3 per cent of all private sector businesses in the UK, 47.8 per cent of private sector employment and 33.2 per cent of private sector turnover.
The Times on Saturday 7 February in its comment “Why the Tories are not Ahead” had a very substantive point. It wrote, the Labour party is indeed having a bad time, based on its policies on high street chains Boots, NHS, tuition fees. But the question that arises from here is if Labour is as bad as it appears, then why are the Conservatives not well ahead?
The most important reason is of course a difficult economy, the painful recovery and cuts while Mr Cameron's order to give staff a pay rise in businesses and £30bn saved through low borrowing costs that are perhaps going to be used as pre election give aways.
Politically speaking, Mr Cameron who began by saying he would govern as a liberal Conservative, has not had the numbers in the Commons to complete modernisation of his party, and has had to be part of Coalition, quite unwillingly.
On the other hand voters' faith in the Conservatives' immigration policy has been cut in half in the past 4.5 years. According to a report, in June 2010, 46% of Britons thought the Tories had the best approach to immigration, but in January, according to YouGov, only 23% think that the Tories have got that right, while 15% actually believe that Labour's stance is superior.
However Labour have started their efforts to establish that the party is aggressively pro-business. Ed Miliband has also pledged to extend paternity leave from two weeks to four weeks- perhaps better late than ever?
If the Labour party wins the largest number of seats, without a clear majority it will need to strike alliance with other smaller parties. If Labour party does not manage a formal Coalition, Mr Cameron will have to form a minority government. One possibility could be something similar to the 1974 election, when Labour formed a minority government in February, only to return to polls in October and win a majority of 3 seats.
On Tuesday, as we went to press, the latest poll on Westminster voting intentions showed that the Scottish National Party is on course to double its vote in May’s general election despite its lead over Scottish Labour narrowing. The TNS poll has given the SNP a 10-point lead over Scottish Labour, putting nearly half of the 41 Westminster seats won by Scottish Labour in 2010 at risk.
However, amidst all recent speculations, it has been reported that former Labour PM Tony Blair has decided to end his rift with Ed Miliband and pledged to offer whatever support the Labour leader wants.
In an interview with the Economist, Blair had earlier suggested he had reservations about Miliband’s strategy, saying the election looked like becoming a battle between traditional leftwing and rightwing parties, with the right most likely to win. He later clarified that he had not meant that Miliband was on course to lose.
However, with his former spin doctor Alastair Campbell now heavily involved in preparing Miliband for TV debates, Blair obviously cannot be absent from the campaign without leading to further damaging speculations.
Despite a bruising couple of weeks, Labour appears to be holding on to a narrow lead over the Tories. The latest survey by Opinium for the Observer puts Labour on 34%, two points ahead of the Tories. Now let us see what the future actually has in store.
