An analysis conducted by polling expert Sir John Curtice indicates that faith in the UK's politics and election system are currently at their lowest point, with 45 percent of respondents expressing that they never trust governments to prioritise the country's needs over party interests and while many expect the Labour party to be the 'government in waiting', there is scepticism about their ability to fulfil their promises of "Change".
As public faith wanes, the Conservatives appear to be depending on the same faith as they brace for a potentially disastrous outcome on 4 July. Recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has encountered significant hurdles in the past week, including accusations that he offended war veterans by departing the D-Day commemoration early. Amid these controversies, Mr Sunak disclosed that he draws strength from his ‘Hindu’ faith. Despite potential frustrations over the public's perceived lack of acknowledgment for his efforts to stabilise the government after Liz Truss' brief tenure, Mr Sunak reaffirmed his commitment to his ‘dharma’ (see page 3). In an interview with The Times and Sunday Times, he explained that ‘dharma’ entails fulfilling one's duty without being attached to the outcomes, a guiding principle in Hinduism that helps him stay focused on doing what he believes is right.
Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron, speaking at a Foreign Press Association (FPA) event last week also said something on the similar lines. When asked about Conservatives trailing in polls, he said that the party is doing its best for the people of the UK and have left the rest on the voters, having faith in their decision.
How will ethnic minorities vote?
At an event hosted by FPA, Rupanjana Dutta, Managing Editor of Asian Voice interacted with the team from ‘UK in a changing Europe’ Director, Prof Anand Menon; Research Associate, Sophie Stowers and Senior Fellow, Prof Rob Ford.
Rupanjana highlighted the perceived lack of engagement from the Labour Party with the British Asian diaspora, while the Conservative Party taking their support for granted and asked how the community might vote in the upcoming election.
Answering that and referring to an upcoming report on ethnic minority voters from UK in a changing Europe, Sophie discussed why ethnic minorities vote the way they do and how they have voted historically, stating, “Discussions often generalise ethnic minority populations as a single voting bloc, largely aligning with Labour historically. However, our analysis reveals significant intergroup diversity, with British Indians serving as a prime example. We observe that this group is increasingly aligning their votes with their economic and social values rather than simply out of allegiance to Labour. Specifically, British Indians tend to hold more conservative economic and social views, particularly among British Hindus.
“It's important to specify that this shift towards the Conservatives among Indian Hindus has been one of the most rapid changes in voting patterns. This trend became particularly pronounced around 2019, which we consider a tipping point. Assessing the continuity of this trend in the upcoming election remains complex, especially with the current significant swing towards Labour across various demographic groups nationwide.”
She further explained a shift in the voting patterns of minorities and a religion based divide in the voting shift. She said, “Based on our evidence, particularly from the report I've been working on, it does suggest a shift among Christians and Hindus towards the Conservatives. The critical question is the pace and scale of this shift. Is it happening rapidly enough and with sufficient numbers to constitute a swing vote or a significant bloc that could sway outcomes in constituencies?
“Currently, my sense is that voters' intentions may not have changed significantly enough to have a decisive impact. Looking at recent local elections, there were indications that British Muslims expressed discontent with Labour's stance on Gaza, influencing local election results. However, replicating this impact in a general election is challenging.”
However, even with religious divisions, how are community members meant to choose their local MP, when they are unaware of the candidates' pledges specific to the needs of their community? The lack of personal engagement therefore demotivates the voters. Nevertheless, it's crucial to emphasise that voting is one’s fundamental right and duty of every citizen. We must all make an effort to step out on 4 July and cast our votes.
What are the main issues affecting ethnic minorities?
In conversation with Asian Voice, Keiran Pedley, a Research Director at Ipsos and an expert onelections, political polling and public opinion research, discussed the main issues that the ethnic minorities want to be addressed, stating, “The top issue for the ethnic minorities is inflation and the rising cost of living, followed by concerns about the NHS and the economy. While these issues are generally significant across the public as a whole, the primary concern for ethnic minorities is the cost of living, unlike for white Britons where it ranks joint third or fourth in importance.
“Regarding other issues and their differences, ethnic minorities tend to place slightly higher importance on foreign affairs and foreign policy compared to white Britons. Additionally, discussions around foreign policy can mean different things to different ethnic minority groups. Currently, there's significant focus on Gaza, but other issues like Kashmir or other geopolitical concerns can vary in importance among different groups.”
Keiren also noted that the ethnic minorities tend to vote less frequently than white Britons and that this has been a consistent pattern over time. On being asked about the reason behind this, he said, “I believe there are multiple reasons why individuals choose not to vote. It could be influenced by the candidate's background and their alignment with personal values. Moreover, it extends to whether communities or individuals feel adequately represented by politics in general. As I mentioned earlier, for ethnic minorities in Britain, the cost of living ranks as the top concern. Therefore, if people perceive that political parties aren't addressing these issues effectively, they may feel disillusioned and see little reason to participate in elections.
“Dissatisfaction with the broader workings of government and our electoral system could also play a role. In many constituencies, the first-past-the-post system might lead some to question the impact of their vote. Thus, the decision not to vote is multi-faceted and influenced by various factors.”
Community members speak out on plans and promises
Vivek Saraogi, Chairperson of the ICAI UK, shared his opinion on the pledges made on taxation and economy in the various manifestos and the representation of South Asias in his constituency. About the former he said, “I don't think the proposed measures are very practical. At the same time, I believe the UK is lacking strong leadership and no one has presented a clear plan. We've talked about cost-cutting measures, which will ultimately affect public services, but no one has discussed where to invest or how to increase revenue. Revenue isn't solely based on taxes; it's also derived from GDP growth and other key economic factors that drive the economy.”
Further discussing community representation, he said, “Living near London Bridge, I notice that candidates don't seem to care much about the South Asian community. Whether we vote for them or not doesn't seem to matter. In this area, they're more concerned about the white and black communities because those groups still have some voting power. The South Asian community here is relatively small, and in central areas, there seems to be little engagement with us. We don't even receive ballots properly and often have to request them ourselves.”
On being asked if this lack of representation affects voting morale, Vivek was quick to point out that voting is a duty. He said, “It depends on the individual. Personally, I took the initiative to ensure I received my ballot when I wasn't registered, and now I'm eligible to vote. I'm also an active trustee and worker at various temples and we encourage people in our community to register and vote, highlighting the importance of making our voices heard. This way, our community doesn't get left out and everyone can participate.”
Pranav Vora, the Founder of Aum Care shared his opinion on what needs to happen for elder care, care workers and the NHS as a new government comes in. According to him, the NHS needs urgent attention. “More funding is required, particularly to allow people to choose their own care. We see many people who need care but aren't receiving funding, leaving them without necessary support. This issue is critical and needs to be addressed”, he said.
In South Asian culture, children tend to live with their parents for much longer and take up caring duties. On whether the parties took this cultural aspect in account when drafting their plans for carers, Pranav shared his opinion, highlighting the crucial role unpaid carers play, especially in South Asian families where we often live with or support our loved ones even if they don’t live with us and the importance for there to be a strong system of support for these individuals and families.
Shalina Patel is a secondary school teacher and an author, who shared her opinion on what is being offered to teachers and the education system. She said, “Anyone who remembers the teachers strikes from early 2023 knows that schools are really struggling with funding, workload and retention and recruitment of teachers.
“The Labour manifesto has promised to recruit new teachers and I think many in education will welcome the reforms they’ve have suggested to the inspection system as well as supportive measures like mental health support for students. The references to an inclusive curriculum are really positive to see also.
“As a secondary school teacher, the Conservative manifesto suggestion of an ‘advanced British Standard’ to replace A Level is quite alarming as this is a huge change but with little detail on how it will work. It feels like some of the pledges they’ve made are not actually for those in the education sector - for example the reality is that people in education will already tell you that school don’t allow students to be on their phones for example and will be aware that school curriculums are already transparent and available for parents to see.
“I would definitely like to see both parties making it clearer what they will do to retain the brilliant teachers we already have - so many teachers are leaving the profession due to poor pay “and conditions and it would be great to see teachers being valued for the amazing work that they do.”
Aneet Kapoor is a Pharmacist who lives in Manchester. About having the needs of the community heard, he said, “Having attentive ears in this process is paramount. Recently, the Hindu Manifesto was unveiled during the Action For Harmony conference. It's only through such collaborative endeavours that political parties can start incorporating these concerns into their agendas. It's imperative for all South Asian communities to unite and express their requirements.”
In a positive spin, Aneet observes an increasing number of South Asian MPs in the area, this representation aiding in fostering a better understanding of the community's sentiments and culture.
Anirban Mukhopadhyay from Harrow is a resident deeply concerned about the upcoming elections. He pointed out that despite the pledges and promises being made by candidates, there's a palpable anxiety within the Indian community, particularly among those who have lived there for many years. “We fear that if the Labour Party comes into power, there may be an increase in anti-India rhetoric”, he said.
He also highlighted recent Khalistani events in and around the area have increased. He expressed concern that neither the government nor the Labour Party has addressed these issues. He worries that if a party perceived as anti-India takes office, combined with incidents like the Khalistani events, the situation could become increasingly unsettling.
He believes this issue has not received sufficient attention from political parties and candidates. Given that Harrow is predominantly Asian, Anirban stressed on the importance of addressing these concerns promptly and urged political leaders to acknowledge and respond to these anxieties, ensuring they do not escalate further.
The political parties seem to be overlooking more than just ethnic minorities as caterers, a vital part of the hospitality industry, also feel ignored. Oli Khan MBE, President of Bangladesh Caterers Association (BCA), the UK’s largest organisation representing 12,000 UK curry restaurants and takeaways, spoke out about the apathy from the political parties towards his sector.
He said, “Till now I and the rest of BCA have not seen any political party recognise our value. It’s worth remembering that pre the pandemic, we were an industry that contributed £4.2 billion per year to the UK’s economy. Our industry must make its concerns known to politicians of all parties. We will be asking them as they campaign to support this vital industry.
“We need to see all political parties recognise our sector's significance and contribution to gross domestic product and employment. We need to see the real evidence of measures that can unlock the potential of our industry to do more and put us back to where we were in 2019.”
He has also put forward a list of four demands for the parties.
