The third month in a row the US government weather agencies have highlighted the probability of El Nio conditions developing in late summer this year and it will be a bad indication for the monsoon season in India.
The March update of US agencies linked to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on conditions in the Pacific Ocean, released, reiterates the model projections of the previous two months on the possibility of an El Niño forming around July-August this year. Although experts, including IMD officials, have stated that a clearer picture will emerge only by next month (in April), when spring conditions in the Pacific are taken into account, the fact that the signal for El Nio has lasted in weather models for three months supports the forecast.
El Niño is an abnormal warming of surface ocean currents in the east and central equatorial Pacific that corresponds with changes in wind flows, affecting weather patterns across many regions of the globe. An El Niño generally leads to poor summer monsoon rains over India, although there have been exceptions to this in the past.
The most recent bulletin stated that after three years, La Nia circumstances have finally subsided. El Nio's opposite, La Nia, causes a cooling of the seas in the eastern and central Pacific. La Nia has gone, and ENSO neutral conditions are anticipated to last until the spring and early summer of 2023 in the northern hemisphere.
The projections predict that El Nio will arrive quickly later this year. The most recent projection, however, indicates an El Nio forming only by August, when the February forecast had forecasted a higher possibility of El Nio (than neutral circumstances) by around July this year.