The recent strife in ties with Kathmandu has again brought to the fore India’s old fault lines with Nepalese PM K P Oli, who, faced with dissension in the ruling communist party, again flashed the India card and accused Indian authorities, including the Indian embassy, of plotting his ouster. Oli was quoted as having said conspiracies were being hatched to ensure his removal after he released Nepal’s new map, which showed territories in India’s Uttarakhand state as belonging to Nepal.
“Given the ongoing intellectual discussions, media reports from New Delhi, embassy’s activities and meetings in different hotels in Kathmandu, it is not very difficult to understand how people are openly active to oust me. But they won’t succeed,” he was quoted as saying. Oli’s remarks, and an apparent nationalist stance, come at a time his position is being seen as having become “shaky” again because of factionalism in the ruling party and his rival and former PM P K Dahal Prachanda coming out against the PM’s alleged autocratic style of functioning. Earlier, the dissensions had seriously threatened Oli’s tenure before the Chinese ambassador reportedly played an active role in persuading rival factions to suspend hostilities. Soon after, Oli raised the ante against India, a development that would please Beijing.
Indian officials refused to comment on Oli’s remarks. However, a source reiterated India’s position that Nepal was a valued neighbour and the focus on ensuring supplies of essentials to the country in the middle of the Covid-19 crisis remained unaffected. India was accused of having a role in Oli’s downfall in August 2016 when his first term as PM, which lasted for only nine months, ended. Oli’s ouster then was seen as a serious setback for China as he had worked actively as PM to reduce Nepal’s economic dependence on India by signing trade and energy agreements with China. Oli’s first term as PM, as many is Nepal still believe, was also marred by India’s alleged 2015-16 economic blockade, which caused hardships to Nepali people.
As Oli has said in the past, the period of late 2015 and early 2016 was a difficult time in Nepal-India relations as Nepali people had to face “immeasurable hardships” after essential supply lines were cut off. However, in an interview after taking over as PM again in 2018, he seemed ready to move on as he said learning lessons for future was more crucial than being stuck with the past.
While Oli also said he wanted a trust-based relationship that reflected the realities of the 21st century, his move to issue a new Nepal map and “hurriedly” get it validated by Parliament has only exacerbated fears of a pro-China tilt in his foreign and economic policies.
The government believes that China will be happy to see the back of India at Lipulekh Pass, which is strategically located near the India-Nepal-China trijunction and which is controlled by Indian forces. Indian Army chief Gen M M Naravane has said that Nepal’s move might have been at the behest of a third country.
