The Middle East crisis looks bewilderingly complex because several conflicts overlap. In reality it is a geopolitical chessboard involving three layers: Israel versus Palestinian militant groups, Iran versus Israel and Western powers, and a broader global rivalry involving the United States, Russia and China.
At the centre is Israel, a technologically advanced state with one of the region’s strongest militaries. Israel’s closest ally is the United States, which provides military aid, intelligence sharing and diplomatic protection. The United Kingdom, most EU countries, and NATO allies broadly align with Washington’s position: supporting Israel’s security while also advocating a Palestinian state.
Directly confronting Israel are militant organisations rather than conventional states.
Hamas (Gaza)
- Islamist Palestinian movement governing Gaza
- Rejects Israel’s existence
- Conducts rocket attacks and militant operations
- Receives funding and weapons largely from Iran
Hezbollah (Lebanon)
- Powerful Shia militia and political party
- Armed with a large missile arsenal aimed at Israel
- Effectively Iran’s most capable proxy force
Behind both groups sits Iran, the central strategic opponent of Israel.
Iran’s goals are straightforward
- Expand influence across the Middle East
- Challenge Israel and US power
- Use militant proxies rather than direct war
Iran calls this alliance the “Axis of Resistance.”
Iran’s Proxy Network
Hamas – Gaza
Hezbollah – Lebanon
Shia militias – Iraq
Houthis – Yemen
The Houthis in Yemen, supported by Iran, have attacked Red Sea shipping and Israeli-linked interests, extending the conflict beyond Israel’s borders.
Now consider the Arab states. Historically most Arab governments opposed Israel. That is changing.
Egypt
- First Arab country to sign peace with Israel (1978)
- Controls Gaza’s southern border
- Often mediates between Israel and Hamas
Jordan
- Maintains a peace treaty with Israel
- Security cooperation exists despite political sensitivities
Syria
- Long-time Israeli enemy
- Iranian forces and Hezbollah operate there
- Israel frequently strikes Iranian targets inside Syria
Iraq
- Contains powerful Iran-aligned militias
- Acts as a corridor for Iranian influence across the region
Saudi Arabia and Gulf States
- Fear Iranian expansion
- Increasingly cooperate quietly with Israel
This shift produced one of the most important diplomatic changes in decades.
The Abraham Accords (2020)
Israel normalised relations with
- United Arab Emirates
- Bahrain
- Morocco
- Sudan
These agreements opened trade, tourism and security cooperation. They were driven partly by shared concerns about Iran.
Beyond the region, global powers also shape the crisis.
United States
- Israel’s strongest ally
- Seeks to contain Iran and maintain regional stability
United Kingdom, EU and NATO
- Generally align with US policy
- Support Israel’s security while pushing for diplomacy and humanitarian protections
Russia
- Close partner of Iran
- Maintains strong ties with Syria’s government
- Uses Middle Eastern conflicts to challenge Western influence
China
- Expanding economic influence in the region
- Imports large amounts of Middle Eastern energy
- Tries to maintain relations with both Iran and Gulf states while avoiding direct military involvement
India
- Historically pro-Palestinian
- Now a major defence and technology partner of Israel
- Maintains strong relations with Gulf states simultaneously
Pakistan
- Strong supporter of the Palestinian cause
- Does not recognise Israel
The Big Picture
The region is essentially divided into two loose blocs.
Israel, backed by the United States, the UK, EU countries and NATO partners - and increasingly cooperating with some Arab states through the Abraham Accords.
Opposing them are Iran and its network of proxy groups stretching from Lebanon to Gaza to Yemen, with Russia broadly sympathetic and China watching carefully.
Everything else in the Middle East crisis flows from that underlying rivalry.