The conference season is now in full. Reform UK had an incredible party conference showcasing how far they have come in such a short period of time. The Liberal Democrats, more of the same old slippery rhetoric but no verifiable content. And this week the Labour Party gathered in Liverpool to kick off their conference, albeit under the cloud of a failing prime minister and a failing government.
Normally a government that is elected with such a massive majority in parliament would be buzzing with zeal, optimism and unity. However, the latest poll shows that Starmer has now got the lowest approval rating of any Prime Minister, that’s ever since such polls were conducted. He now stands at a net approval rating of (minus) -66 %. Compare this with the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch who is on -47%. Basically, she is 19% better off than Starmer. Of course, the figure that terrifies both is what Nigel Farage gets. Farage is on -19%. In effect he is 47% better off than Starmer, and 28% off better than Badenoch. No matter how you stack it up, Farage and Reform are thrashing both Labour and the Tories.
The Labour Party has managed to shoot themselves in the foot so many times in their first year in government that one could surmise they have hardly any more toes left. The problems started before Labour was elected. They made extravagant claims and promises to garner votes. Within days of getting the keys to Number 10, promises were broken as the new administration found out that making wild promises in opposition is easy, but to put them in practice when in power is quite a different challenge. Starmer is now known as the U-turn prime minister, and increasingly, the word on the streets is that they consider him, and the Labour Party, as liars. The tag of being called a liar is very difficult to shift given voters only come to that conclusion when they have lost trust.
Approval ratings for the prime minister and the Labour government have tanked in almost every single post general election poll. Reform are on 34% now compared with Labour 22% and Tories 14%. In my view once we get closer to the next general election, I can see the Tory ratings going up, but Labour I believe will go lower and could end up closer to 18%. Reform needs to maintain its lead at 34%, but there is a chance that they may lose some supporters, and it may end up closer to 30%. At 30% Reform cannot have an overall majority, and with that the ugly head of a coalition with other parties comes into play. The biggest unanswered question being, can Reform stay disciplined till the next general election, or will the potential of getting into power encourage a scramble to get to the top table at the cost of party disunity?
We also need to put into this mix the newly formed party by Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana. Whilst it does not have a name yet, they are nevertheless planning to host their very own party conference. The jury is out since there is very little data or information to guide any sensible judgement as to how effective it can be. However, what we can say is that they will secure traditional Labour votes, and if they play the game correctly, and stop the power grab and internal squabbling that often accompanies the formation of a new party, then they could grab as much as 15% of the vote.
Comrades who stood side by side for decades, holding each other’s hands and singing the ‘The Red Flag’, may well end up destroying any chance of a ‘socialist’ government. Comrades are so divided in their interpretation of socialism (for some it’s Marxism!) that in their pursuit of power they are literally tearing each other apart.
The far-left are hell bent in their support for the madness of the woke paradigm. They are very comfortable being on the side of Islamists. These are the people who wanted to hide the grooming gang’s fiasco. They want to introduce a corrupt definition of Islamophobia to ensure that all legitimate criticism of Islam becomes unlawful. They are totally reliant upon the Muslim vote and that of far-left union members.
For Starmer the visit by President Trump was a wish come true. It deflected attention away from him and temporarily silenced the calls for his resignation. The party conference gives him yet another opportunity to deflect attention away from himself. However, whilst the well scripted party conference might want to present a particular face of Starmer, I am not sure the public will be fooled. In my view, in a matter of a few weeks the dark clouds of an uncontrollable storm will gather, and I suspect his end will be nigh.
The most recent Survation poll of Labour members shows that 53% want a change in leadership. The longer he stays in power, the greater the damage to Labour. British politics is broken. The grassroots have lost confidence and trust in many of our politicians. Whilst comrades exhibit open hostility to each other, can Reform, the new kid on the block take advantage? And is there any scope for the Tories to get back their core vote in time for the next election?