An old Intelligence Report from the US Department for Central Intelligence works on the likely scenarios of war between India and Pakistan. If you plug that analysis from their best brains into the current situation in Kashmir then you might conclude the next steps are these:
Recent Context and Potential Indian Reactions
Given recent terrorist attacks, supported by elements within Pakistan, the current situation echoes historical patterns. India's likely response today will inevitably draw from previous patterns, though tempered by contemporary geopolitical considerations:
Military Preparedness and Mobilisation: India's response to any attack traced back to groups operating out of Pakistani territory historically involves immediate and visible military preparedness. This was seen clearly after attacks such as those in Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019), where India significantly increased military alertness along the Line of Control (LoC). Similar actions are likely to recur, involving heightened patrols, alert status, and possibly troop mobilizations to signal readiness.
Surgical Strikes and Limited Military Action: Following the 2016 Uri attack and 2019 Pulwama bombing, India undertook precise cross-border strikes, specifically targeting militant bases inside Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Such actions were justified domestically as counter-terrorism operations, calculated to avoid a full-scale war but powerful enough to convey India’s resolve to act against militancy directly. Given this precedent, limited, targeted military action in the near future is highly plausible. Pakistan is not permitted to use its US fighter jets against India except inside its own borders. So Chinese planes will be used instead for any cross-border attacks against Indian targets. The danger is their radar signature apparently looks like the American planes, which can carry a nuclear payload. This is what is mean by ‘miscalculation’ by academics.
Diplomatic and International Pressure: India will leverage diplomatic channels to isolate Pakistan internationally. This strategy has intensified in recent years, with India using global forums (the United Nations, FATF, G20) to highlight Pakistan’s support for terrorism. India is likely to continue using diplomatic isolation as a key response tool, potentially coupled with new dossiers of evidence against Pakistan provided to international audiences, seeking stronger global condemnation and possible sanctions. Pakistan, like Russia, North Korea and China will deny it supports terrorism and play the victim card, but violence it sees as a legitimate tool to attack and provoke India. We know this from its support of Bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks, we know this from ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Hamas rule book. Pakistan learnt nothing from Gandhi – the father of Pakistan, without whom there would probably be no Pakistan. (Jinnah’s own sister stayed in India and her family are today billionaires.)
Internal Security and Counter-insurgency Measures: Within Kashmir itself, India will almost certainly ramp up its security measures—both as a preventive response and to reassure domestic audiences. This could involve intensified anti-militant operations, stricter surveillance, and possibly tighter civil liberties restrictions, potentially increasing internal tensions. Like London, Northern Ireland, Manchester, this is a responsible standard response. The terrorist remember wants you to be behave in the animalistic way they do. That is the trap.
Nuclear Stability Considerations: Crucially, India's actions will be influenced significantly by nuclear deterrence considerations. The intelligence estimate highlights the nuclear shadow effectively preventing large-scale escalation. Today, India is likely to continue carefully balancing responses to avoid triggering nuclear escalation, even as it maintains pressure on Pakistan. India, unlike Israel in Gaza, cannot level and raze it to the ground, in response to what happened on October 7th. But it will be the Israeli response the terrorists want to provoke because as they saw with Israel’s actions there was in the West a flood of support for those backing and supporting Hamas.
India will be more strategic. But as with Israel, it will have the support of the White House. And it will also have intel from Tulsi Gabbard – the Director of National Intelligence of the US who was in India last month. One thing people may have missed is PM Modi’s statement the terrorists will be hunted “to the ends of the earth”. This is as clear cut that extra-judicial kill squads will be hunting down India’s enemies in foreign countries. Ironically, those terrorists will not find home in the Middle East – the rich Arabs are too shrewd to let the Pakistanis, let alone the poor Gazans bring them into their gutter. No they will find home in the place where per capita there are more Islamist terrorists than anywhere else – the West. And that is where India will hunt them – the way the Israeli’s have always made clear they will too for their enemies.
What does it mean for you and me? In Britain, we must not make the mistake of being seen as sectarian and tribal. Our brand is what the enemy seeks to destroy because their brand is associated with the lowest values of humanity. Our values in this nation are British and Indian values of liberal democracy and non-violence in the Gandhian Indian tradition. The stupidity of the Pakistani High Command should not be spewed as vitriol on anyone other than the Pakistani High Command. Idiot social media keyboard warriors are traps for the unwary. Remember, when someone is making an ass of themselves, it’s best to let them have the rope to hang themselves with. The silent majority of people will see their hate and justification for terrorism for what it is – their belief and value system. That ours is self-defence does not need explanation or justification. It’s understood.