It’s Easter Monday and the Vice President lands in India with his Indian wifeUsha Bala Chilukuri. For Usha it’s coming home to her ancestral origins from Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh.
Trump is using Vance in quite a clever way. Whilst the US administration have Marco Rubio as their Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Trump seems to have concluded that he needs a hard hitter to go out into the world, ruffle up a few feathers, shake down a few trees and put a marker down for future more detailed discussions on partnerships.
Most of the time these trips are not technically official or formal and tend to get classified as semi-personal with an eye on doing some official business. Of course, being the Vice President means he is still treated with many of the trimmings of a state visit, but without the obligations of having to follow official norms. And in the case of Vance, who tends to ignore these norms anyway, it works out perfectly for his agenda.
The relationship between the US and India has never been good. After all, most US administrations chose to support the terrorist state of Pakistan over India. There is now an opportunity for both nations to explore a new partnership that looks at the future. And when it comes to the future, India holds many of its own cards.
As far as America is concerned, of the three giants of India, Russia and China, it stands a better chance of getting something more tangible and agreeable done with India, than any of the other two. The arrival of Vance is to set the scene for a major state visit by Trump in due course.
Getting a trade deal is a high priority for both nations. However, that is often easier said than done. For America they want unfettered access to global markets, or else. For India, an emerging giant that is still developing, it needs to protect the green shoots of economic and industrial growth. Getting the balance right, and the targeted use of agreeable tariffs will be quite a challenge. Currently the trade between the two nations is around $200 billion, but it is their collective hope to increase this dramatically to some $500 billion within the next 5 years.
You should also know that there is the Quad, which is comprised of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia – set up as a counter to the growing influence of China. They are all set to meet in a summit to be held in India soon.
Do remember that the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was also in India recently. On Good Friday news came out that PM Modi was in discussions with Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, and of course the key adviser to Trump. There is a clear message emanating from the US with these high-profile visits and discussions that it wants to, nay, it needs to garner the friendship of India in a world that is in chaos.
Vance being in India for 4 days is quite a statement. Whilst we will see Usha fronting some of the cultural ties and a connect with her heritage, we will see Vance presented as the American jamai.
India will sweeten discussions with a promise to buy more oil, energy and defence equipment (fifth-generation stealth fighter jets might be a high priority) which will help American exports and jobs. It will somehow have to navigate the US away from demanding access to India’s food market. For Indiaprotecting jobs of the masses is important whilst it develops other forms of employment.
The itinerary for Vance looks busy and will includemeetingPM Modi for dinner followed by a formal meeting, tour of Jaipur with a visit to Amer Fort, Hawa Mahal, Jantar Mantar and other locations, attend a special program at the Rajasthan International Centre, and the customary trip to Agra, Taj Mahal, and Shilpgram (a market known for Indian art and crafts). I am sure they will throw in a few last-minute surprises also.
Vance will be testing the waters in India, and he’ll be using his secret weapon, Usha. His aim is to get a feel for the red lines that the US need to avoid with India. For the US, if they play this wrong, they have much more to lose. The US cannot pick a fight with the whole world, make an enemy of China, and at the same time fall out with India. For India, it will need to give a bit back, but I sense maybe this time round they are better equipped to take on the US and secure a reasonable trade deal. Keeping the US, Russia, Israel and the EU all happy requires the magic touch of a gujju!