As U.S. Vice President JD Vance embarks on his diplomatic mission to India, he brings with him a playbook reminiscent of Donald Trump's The Art of the Deal. In contrast, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi channels the ancient wisdom of Chanakya's Arthashastra. This convergence sets the stage for a high-stakes negotiation, blending modern deal-making tactics with time-honored strategic principles.
JD Vance's Strategy: The Art of the Deal in Action
Vance's approach is characterized by assertive negotiation tactics aimed at securing favourable terms for the United States. His objectives include:
Trade Leverage: With the Trump administration's 90-day pause on increased tariffs looming, Vance pressures India to make concessions, particularly in opening its agricultural and dairy markets.
- Defence and Technology: He advocates for expanded U.S. defence sales and co-production agreements, such as Javelin missiles and Stryker vehicles, aligning with U.S. economic and strategic interests.
- Immigration Policies: Addressing concerns over H-1B visa allocations, Vance seeks to balance domestic immigration policies with the needs of U.S. tech companies reliant on Indian talent.
Vance's visit, accompanied by his Indian-origin wife and children, adds a personal dimension to the diplomacy, potentially softening negotiations.
Modi's Counterstrategy: Chanakya's Timeless WisdomPrime Minister Modi, drawing from Chanakya's teachings, employs a multifaceted strategy:
- Strategic Concessions: India signals willingness to reduce tariffs on over half of its U.S. imports, aiming to avert the threatened 26% tariffs and maintain favourable trade relations.
- Diversified Alliances: By strengthening ties with other global partners and emphasizing the 'Make in India' initiative, Modi reduces reliance on any single nation, thereby enhancing India's bargaining position.
- Cultural Diplomacy: Hosting Vance's family and showcasing India's rich heritage serves to build goodwill and potentially influence negotiations favourably.
- Immigration Reciprocity: Modi may leverage cooperation on deporting illegal Indian immigrants in exchange for stable or increased H-1B visa allocations, addressing domestic concerns while supporting the Indian diaspora.
Overall you’re going to see a different Vance to the one who visited Europe or Zelensky met. This Vance will be polite and simply say, “open your markets to US goods, buy more American defence.” India will say, “sure but then make American defence cheaper or lend us money on favourable terms to buy it. As for buying your oil, we can pick it up cheaper from the Russians. Make us a deal.”
Vance is negotiating with a Gujarati. America could learn from India on how to use tariffs to protect domestic industries and still have near 10% growth and have a healthy economy. America is too large and open to be able to do it. America made China. As they now point out, they created a country that uses American money to build weapons pointed at America. America needs India to counter China. It also has a friend in India which is friends with all countries in the Middle East. Think of it. It also is a friend to Russia which guarantees a veto in the UN Security Council on issues around Kashmir. No Western nation is so reliable as Russia on this. Vance will not seek India to choose sides, as indeed America has not chosen sides either. India will not be vocal against China. There is no point. It will do what it has to quietly.
On security – Tulsi Gabbard Head of National Intelligence was in Delhi last month. You can expect more crackdowns on those on India’s terror list in America.