As my friend Manoj Ladwa’s timely conference in Mumbai about India pointed out – there are amazing new alliances being accelerated thanks to Trump.
In the grand ballroom of global trade, the United States, United Kingdom, and India are engaged in a complex dance, each partner trying to lead without stepping on the others' toes.
President Donald Trump, ever the showman, has reintroduced tariffs with the flair of a magician pulling rabbits from hats. As of April 5, 2025, a 10% baseline tariff now greets most imports into the U.S., with higher rates for certain countries and products. The UK, despite its "special relationship" with the U.S., wasn't spared. British exports, including steel, cars, and even the beloved English whisky, now face these levies too.
India, labelled the "tariff king" by Trump, found itself under a 27% reciprocal tariff.However, rather than retaliate, India chose diplomacy over drama. By April 6, 2025, India signalled its intent to negotiate, aiming to double bilateral trade with the U.S. to $500 billion by 2030. Negotiations are underway, with India considering tariff reductions on over half of $23 billion worth of U.S. imports.
Meanwhile, the UK is waltzing with India towards a free trade agreement. Trump makes it easier – after all the need is there and the UK can say to India, “you played it for him, now play it again for me, Sam”.
As of early April, 90% of the deal is reportedly agreed upon, with discussions focusing on tariffs for whisky, cars, and pharmaceuticals according to the Guardian. This agreement could provide a much-needed economic boost for the UK, especially as it grapples with the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Back in Washington, Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about a potential U.S.-UK trade deal, citing strong cultural and economic ties – which India can use on the principle of Most Favoured Nation that it should have no worse an agreement. However, with the current tariffs in place, the path to such an agreement remains uncertain.
As the music plays on, the world watches, hoping for harmony over discord.
I remain optimistic I will be buying back into my US stocks…soon at a cheaper price than I sold them.