With the high-stakes Bihar Assembly Election now concluded, the nation's attention turns to the forthcoming results, set to be declared on November 14, 2025. The polling, conducted in two phases on November 6 and November 11, 2025, has been immediately followed by a wave of exit polls, with the latest projections heavily favouring the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA). A Poll of Polls aggregating the data suggests a decisive mandate for the NDA, placing them comfortably above the majority mark of 122 seats. The Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is expected to be a distant runner-up.
Based on the exit poll data provided by various agencies, a consensus emerges that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set for a convincing victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) trailing significantly. Pollsters such as Dainik Bhaskar (NDA 145–160), Matrize (NDA 147–167), People's Pulse (NDA 133–159), People's Insight (NDA 133–148), and DVC Research (NDA 137–152) all project the NDA to comfortably cross the majority mark of 122 seats, while the MGB is relegated to a distant second, typically projected to win between 70 and 102 seats.
Bihar, the ancient heartland of India, is currently engulfed in a fierce state election that transcends local politics; it is a critical national test and a raw emotional battle over development and identity. As the third most populous state, home to over 130 million people (approximately 14 crores), Bihar’s verdict will profoundly impact national dynamics, sending 40 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha.
Crisis, turnout, and the stakes
The immense significance of Bihar stems from its sheer population and its status as a political laboratory where the national development narrative clashes violently with deep-seated social justice politics. Bihar grapples with staggering socio-economic issues. It remains one of India's poorest states, plagued by low industrialisation, high unemployment, and the crushing reality of mass migration, where hundreds of thousands of its youth leave annually in search of work.
The electorate was deeply engaged, proven by the 65.08% voter turnout recorded in the first phase of the current Assembly elections, a historic high. The final phase saw this participation climb even higher, with a strong voter turnout of 67.14% provisionally recorded. The ruling coalition attributes the surge to the success of women-centric welfare schemes, calling it the ‘Mahila factor’. In contrast, the Opposition interprets it as an anti-incumbency wave driven by youth demanding jobs.
The Mahagathbandhan’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav, has repeatedly slammed the incumbents, stating: "Bihar is still the poorest state with the highest unemployment, inflation, and migration. Once our government forms, within 20 days, we will pass a law to give one government job to every family without one". The NDA, meanwhile, has countered this with a focus on investment and stability. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has defended the alliance's approach, arguing, "Employment can be created in multiple ways. Employment is different from jobs... We will have to create the opportunity of self-employment in Bihar itself".
The turnout puzzle and economic viability
Prof. Sanjay Kumar, a renowned Indian political analyst and psephologist, gives detailed perspective on both the record-breaking turnout and the political discourse surrounding industrialisation and social equity.
He says, "There have been elections when turnout has increased and governments have got re-elected as well as governments have got defeated. Similarly, there have been elections, when turnout has declined compared to the previous election, but government have got defeated as well as the government has been re-elected. An analysis of nearly 332 state assembly election held in different states till 2020 indicates, turnout increased in 188 assembly elections. Of these, 89 government got re-elected. Similarly, 144 times the turnout declined, and of these 56 governments got re-elected. Clearly, there is hardly any strong co-relation between turnout and electoral outcome. Given this evidence, it is hard to say, what does a higher turnout in Bihar Assembly election 2025 indicate.”
First and foremost, he highlights the exercise of a special intensive revision of the electoral roll in Bihar. This resulted in the deletion of names of 'ghost voters', those who were either dead or permanently away from where they were registered but whose names continued to figure on the electoral roll. Names of such ghost voters had continued to be on the voters' list without any possibility of such votes being cast on voting day, naturally resulting in lower turnout in earlier elections.
The presence of a large number of migrant voters in Bihar on the day of voting, who normally are away from Bihar at the time of election, also seems to have contributed to an increase in voter’s turnout. It is important to note that the most auspicious festival of a large number of Biharis, Chhath Puja, had completed only a few days before the elections. Many voters who had come to their native place on the occasion of Chhath Puja may have decided to stay back after the festival to cast their vote. There are some indications that the migrants who had returned to Bihar also contributed to an increased voter’s turnout in the state.”
Regarding the economic viability of the state and the provision of reservation for social equity, Kumar offered a contrasting view to the typical political narrative. “I don't think there is a co-relationship between Provision of reservation for Social Equity and Economic viability and private industrial investments. The two things can go hand in hand. If there is no or very little private industrial investment, it is because of other factors like, mainly poor infrastructural capacity (Road, Electricity, Law and Order situation, etc) rather than the provision of reservation. I agree that in a state like Bihar where a very large number of people (families) still depend upon agriculture for their livelihood, there is a need for industrialisation, but this to my mind has nothing to do with caste-based reservation. Why provision of reservation would become a roadblock for market-driven development unless it becomes mandatory to implement the provision of reservation in the private sector as well.”
With exit polls indicating a continuation of the NDA’s rule, the focus remains firmly on the counting day of November 14. Whether the NDA’s narrative of stability or the Mahagathbandhan’s promise of massive job creation resonates most deeply with the record number of voters will be revealed in the final tally.
