In recent weeks, Indian-Americans may have felt déjà vu—except it’s not Uganda in the 1970s. It’s 2025—and Donald Trump has effectively declared *“Never Again”—but this time he’s targeting India, the outsourcing colossus, with punitive tariffs, visa crackdowns, and even the ominous suggestion of taxing remote IT work.
The Tariff Shock
Trump administration doubled U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to a staggering 50%, among the highest levied on any partner. Initially pitched as a “reciprocal” tariff, a second punitive layer was added as punishment for India’s continued imports of Russian oil. The result? Manufacturing hubs like Tirupur are already feeling the heat—factory closures, job losses, and sectors from gems to shrimp reeling. Industry watchers warn of a possible 1% GDP contraction and up to £45 billion in export losses in the worst case.
Outsourcing: Now a Taxable Offense?
Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade hawk, is fanning a new narrative: an “outsourcing tax” on remote work. He’s echoing calls to “tariff foreign remote workers” as though code and algorithms were contraband. Navarro can be led by the nose. He will consider targeting American nuclear missiles to Delhi co-ordinates – he is completely capable of saying so if someone whispers it in his ear.
H-1B and Immigration Bulldozer
Couple that with new pressure to tighten the H-1B visa regime, and you’ve got tech professionals—and their parents, spouses, and aspirations—in freefall. Thousands of student visas have also been revoked, even as Chinese students continue to enroll by the hundreds of thousands. Despite concerns the Chinese are using students as spies.
Tech Giants in the Crosshairs
Big-tech, particularly Google and Microsoft, have been told to cease hiring in India, pivot to American hires, or face the music. Trump even threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on iPhones not made on U.S. soil.
Strategic Fallout
This isn’t just economics, or even politics, now with mention of ‘brahmins’ it’s become ethnic, racist. The 2025 U.S.–India diplomatic crisis is in full swing. U.S. policymakers, long invested in India as a Quad ally, now risk driving New Delhi toward Russia and China – actually they’re driving it to the UK and EU. India will be ensuring the EU and UK see it is an opportunity and grow a spine and do not cave in to Navarro dictating British foreign policy.
What Comes Next?
If history teaches anything, it’s that “what’s next” under this administration is hard to predict—but plausible. Let’s call it Speculative Scenario No. 237:
- Remittance Taxes: Trump may tax funds Indian-Americans send home, supposedly to deter “foreign dependence.”
- Personal Sanctions: The next step could morph into travel or financial sanctions on individuals—especially engineers, students, or entrepreneurs of Indian origin.
- Ethnic Profiling by Other Names: Under “national security,” sweeping measures may target Indian ethnicity broadly—travel bans, heightened scrutiny at airports, social media monitoring.
- Strategic Decoupling: This could extend to defense and technology—outsourcing ban becomes technology decoupling, dismantling the U.S.–India innovation ecosystem.
In short, the Indian-American community could have itself a “moment”—a collision between identity, geopolitics, and American domestic politics—with little warning, and with devastating collateral damage. Will those of Indian ethnicity be ‘kicked out’ – it’s already begun. For all of us who worked on ever closer ties we have two options. First, give up. Second, go on holiday for a while. What we won’t do is grovel.
This isn’t fear-mongering—it’s reading the writing on the wall. U.S.–India ties, long built on shared values and mutual ambition, are being undermined by ideological one-liners. But who benefitted when Ugandan Indian’s left? Britain.
Alpesh Patel OBE