In a development that will be closely followed across western capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to India on Dec 4 and 5 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. Putin is expected to arrive Dec 4 evening and head into the summit with PM Narendra Modi the next morning.
Several agreements and MoUs spanning a range of areas are expected to be signed during the visit that will help India reassert its strategic autonomy by underscoring the defence and trade partnerships with Moscow. However, the summit will also test India’s ability to navigate a delicate situation and balance competing interests as it works to ensure that the outcomes don’t act as a dealbreaker in its ties with the US and the EU.
Putin’s visit comes at a time when the Trump administration has been ramping up pressure on India to reduce its purchase of Russian crude oil. India’s purchase of Russian crude rose from less than one per cent of total oil imports before the war in Ukraine to a peak of almost 40 per cent, making it the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude and the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China.
Half of the 50 per cent tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on India in August emanate from the country’s purchase of Russian oil (the other half comes because of their inability to conclude a bilateral trade agreement).
Tariffs were followed in October by the US’s secondary sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft companies, which account for over half of the country’s crude exports (although Indian companies can still buy from non-sanctioned entities).
UK, European envoys denounce Putin
The envoys of Britain, France and Germany in India have publicly denounced Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine, putting New Delhi in an awkward position ahead of his visit. Addressing the trip in a joint op-ed for the Times of India paper, UK high commissioner Lindy Cameron, French ambassador Thierry Mathou and German ambassador Philipp Ackermann accused Russia of escalating the Ukraine war even while peace talks were underway.
Announcing the visit, the India said that it will provide an opportunity for the leadership of India and Russia to review progress in bilateral relations, set the vision for strengthening the ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.
This will be Putin’s first visit to India since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022. Unlike the last time Putin travelled to India for the annual summit, in Dec 2021, this will be a state visit during which President Droupadi Murmu will also host a banquet in his honour. Putin’s last visit, in the middle of a Covid wave, lasted only for a few hours. China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia are among the countries Putin has visited since the war started.
While the visit allows both sides to reinforce the importance they attach to the relationship, which is defined by longstanding trust, India will be mindful of how the outcomes, especially in defence and energy, are seen in Washington and European capitals. India is looking to conclude negotiations in the next few weeks for a bilateral trade agreement with the US, which has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its oil purchase from Russia, and of immediate priority also is the EU-India summit that New Delhi will host in January.
Modi may visit Jordan & Oman
PM Modi is likely to visit Jordan and Oman in mid-Dec amid ongoing efforts by West Asian countries to uphold the fragile ceasefire in Gaza. While this would be Modi’s second visit to Oman, which is among the countries that India is expected to soon sign a free trade agreement with, the only time he visited Jordan earlier was in 2018 when he transited through the country on his way to Ramallah, becoming the first Indian PM to visit Palestine.
PM Modi had last visited Oman in 2018. India and Oman have concluded negotiations for a free trade deal but a formal signing of the deal is still awaited. If Oman authorities are able to complete all domestic formalities in the next few weeks, the agreement could become the highlight of Modi’s visit.