1st of May 2025 the British people gave a kicking of a lifetime to the Labour Party, and to the Tory Party also.
I remember telling the Tory insiders for many years the huge errors they were making. That they just did not have their finger on the pulse of the nation. I remember these so-called expert advisors to the Tory party tell me that they knew better. And history showed us in 2024 that the British people gave them a whooping from which they have still not recovered.
By default, Labour ended up with a massive majority. Not because they deserved it, or because they had policies that galvanised people – mainly because it was a vote against the Tories (who also lost many of their core vote to Reform). You would have thought that Labour might have learnt a lesson that ignoring the electorate is never a good idea. Starmer made promises for votes, promises he broke literally within days of entering Number 10.
He promised to smash the illegal migrant trafficking gangs. Instead, he took the only viable immediate Rwandasolution off the table. Instead of smashing the gangs, one can say the gangs have smashed Labour with some 12000 arrivals already in the first four months of 2025.
Starmer has successfully smashed other things up though. He has kicked the pensioners hard, robbed the farmers of their inheritance, he has hiked up taxes to cripple not just the average worker, but also many small businesses. High net worth people are leaving the UK in their thousands with the treasury confirming a massive drop in tax collected. He is seen as the champion for Ukraine, but cares little for the average Brit.Final straw, he decided that he would protect Pakistani grooming gangs, local Labour councillors, local authority workers and some police officers by not establishing a full statutory inquiring into grooming gangs. As far as the electorate is concerned, it seems Labour don’t care much about white vulnerable girls who were raped and physically abused.
So, I am not surprised that in the recent local authority and mayoral elections the electorate expressed their total discontent with the government. I remind you all that it was just a year ago that Labour secured a massive majority in Parliament. And in just one year they have lost the very same electorate. Now that is some achievement.
Reform has won 677 seats in local elections and now control 10 councils. In addition, they now have two mayors. And they won the by election in Runcorn by just 6 votes. It brings home the saying that every vote counts.
In December 2024 I wrote that some local councils would postpone elections because they know they will get a beating by Reform. Can you imagine the level of disaster for Tories and Labour if all councils had been up for elections? Reform would have decimated both parties.
Winning is one thing, but the real test for Reform starts now. It will be interesting to see if they can run properly the 10 councils they control now. For Reform they have everything to lose. Power at council level is acceptable, but their goal is to secure power in Parliament. And that is very different beast and a long way away.
Reform has 3 years in which to prove they can stay united, that they can do the business of running councils, and that they can still stay focussed on the core issues affecting our nation.
For Labour their goose is cooked. The only way they get a second term is if Tories and Reform keep cutting each other’s legs. For Tories, they should keep their powder dry for at least the next two years. However, they will have to address the real issues affecting the nation, and what people want. Appeasement politics and cowardice of the past will not wash. Reform has been successful, not because they have policies to run the nation or have a track record, they won because people have lost trust in the two legacy parties.
Reform secured 30% of the vote share compared with Labour (20%), Tories (15%), LDs (17%) and Greens (11%). But let’s also slay a myth that the vote for Reform was just a protest – it was not. The electorate voted for Reform because none of the other parties were offering what they wanted.Given our FPTP system, I am still of the belief that Reform will need at least 35%of the vote share at the next General Election if they are to form the government. As they say, a slip between the cup and the lip is never too far away.They have lots of time to mess things up, and if that happens, will the Tories be ready to pick up the pieces? One thing is for sure, this nation was and still iscentre right. Whoever galvanises that spirit, wins the day.