Morgan Stanley Research anticipates India's GDP growth to ease to 6.5% for FY25 from the projected 6.9% for FY24. ICRA projects a sequential moderation in year-on-year GDP growth to 6% in Q3 FY24 from 7.6%, primarily driven by the agriculture and industry sectors.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research & outreach, ICRA Ltd, said, “Lower volume growth for the industrial sector, flagging momentum in certain indicators of investment activity, a slowdown in government expenditure and an uneven monsoon are expected to dampen the GDP growth to 6 per cent in Q3 FY24 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY24.”
MS Research’s report said it maintained a constructive outlook on the Indian economy, while highlighting that risks emanate from global factors and elections in May 2024.
“Domestic demand improved in January, while macro stability remains comfortable, reflecting strength in the fundamentals. We maintain our constructive outlook on the economy,” Morgan Stanley Research said in its report titled India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook: Strength in Growth, Stability in Macro-Fundamentals.
Morgan Stanley Research forecasts healthy GDP growth for the third quarter of FY24, ending December 2023, at 6.5%, albeit slower than the 7.7% recorded in the first half of the current financial year. The research division of the investment bank also suggests that the current account deficit is expected to stay favorable, supported by robust services exports and declining global commodity prices, particularly in oil.