India may experience "below normal" rains for the 2023 monsoon season (June-September), according to private weather forecaster Skymet, after reporting four years in a row of "normal" and "above normal" rainfall. Skymet noted that the northern and central regions of the country may be "at risk" of experiencing a rain deficit.
Even though Skymet predicted "less than normal" rains for Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh - the agri bowl of north India - during the second half of the season (August–September), the situation at "below normal" levels may not have a significant impact on farming operations in these states because the entire region has, to some extent, drought-proofed its agriculture through a network of basic irrigation facilities and use of new drought-resistant varieties of seeds.
The weather forecaster also expects Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
Over the country as a whole, it predicted that the upcoming monsoon to be 'below normal' to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of nearly 87 cm rainfall for the four-month season and there is 40% probability for that.
Despite reporting "below normal" rainfall in 2017 and 2018, the country produced 285 million tonnes of foodgrains in 2017–18 and 2018–19, respectively. This was more than the output in 2016–17 (275 million tonnes), the year with "normal" monsoon rainfall at 97% of the LPA.