Can Omicron lead to an anticipated third wave in India?

Considering the current situation, there is no visible sign of Omicron’s unprecedented spread in India but knowing how the new variant is detected through the laborious genome sequencing, there is always going to be a lag between the reported cases and actual situation. In such a situation it is hard to know how far the new variant has penetrated the Indian population.
No doubt India is in a better position than other countries like South Africa in terms of vaccination with 38 per cent people fully vaccinated compared to South Africa’s 26 per cent. Also India’s Covid cases have remained below 10,000 mark for the longest time without any visible sign of surge.
But the number of cases of Covid's fast-spreading strain Omicron has crossed the 200-mark in India according to the Union Health Ministry. Maharashtra and Delhi have reported the highest number of cases of the new variant followed by Telangana, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Kerala and Gujarat.
The ministry's data also recorded that India had clocked 5,326 cases of Covid infections over the past 24 hours, the lowest daily case count in 581 days. The total number of Covid cases reported in the country now stands at 3.48 crore. As per the recent data, there are now 79,097 active cases in the country, the lowest in 574 days.
The Omicron strain of Covid, known to be highly transmissible, has set off alarm bells and stoked grim memories of the devastating second wave of the pandemic that had brought the country's health infrastructure on its knees. If hybrid immunity, previous history of infection and high vaccination rate has anything to do with the spread of Omicron that India will witness a milder third wave than thought.
However, considering its population, if the variant starts spreading like in South Africa there can be no less than one lakh cases per day by the fifth week of the surge and up to 8 lakh weekly cases in the second month of the surge. According to Manindra Agarwal, an IIT scientist involved in the mathematical projection of trajectory of Covid cases the peak of the Omicron-driven wave is expected in February.
Meanwhile, the Omicron strain is leading to an alarming spike in cases across the world. In US, the new variant accounts for 73 per cent of all sequenced Covid cases, surging from around 3% last week, according to the latest federal estimates. The delta variant, which had been the dominant form of the virus in the US last week, has now receded to roughly 27 per cent of sequenced cases.
The World Health Organization has said the Omicron variant is spreading faster than the Delta variant and is causing infections in people already vaccinated or who have recovered from Covid.