2G spectrum verdict shows rot in the system
The 2G spectrum scandal was supposed to be India’s biggest corruption case, thanks to an estimated £17.6 billion revenue loss to the exchequer as investigated by former Comptroller General of India Vinod Rai. It met with closure, with former union telecom minister A Raja, Kanimozhi, former telecom secretary Sidhartha Behura and corporate honchos among those acquitted. It was hard to miss the mix of politicians, bureaucrats and corporates in CBI’s allegations of crony capitalist nexus. But yet again CBI has come a cropper in producing evidence that could withstand judicial scrutiny.
Though the Congress and DMK have gone to town celebrating the acquittal as a vindication of their case, the judgment clearly reveals how UPA’s chaotic functioning, lack of clarity on policy issues, and bureaucrats running riot – often functioning arbitrarily and ineptly – contributed to the perception of wilful subversion of procedure and monumental scam. If this was the state of affairs in 2007-08 when 2G licences were awarded, by 2010-11 UPA government had become a house in complete disarray. The 2G “scam” and Commonwealth Games related irregularities became the trigger for a powerful anti-corruption movement. The economy slipped, inflation rose and policy paralysis set in.
All this gave impetus to the Modi wave of 2013-14 and Congress plummeted to a historic low of 44 Lok Sabha seats. The telecom sector is yet to recover from the beating it took in 2010-11. A decade ago, when Raja issued 122 2G licences with the proffered aim of boosting competition and reducing tariffs, foreign investors like Etisalat and Telenor were lining up to invest in telecom, even with nondescript partners like Swan and Unitech. Public auctions are a good way for transparently allotting spectrum and should have been adopted much earlier. But the obsession with revenue maximisation through auctions at high base prices rejects the possibility of organic growth through lower tariffs, greater capital investment and focus on quality benefiting government, business and consumer alike. Policy decisions may be wrong or flawed but adducing criminality and corruption can bring governance to a standstill. A bureaucracy steeped in fear and a government on the defensive pit India unfavourably against a China which revels in swift decision making and rapid economic strides. The judgment points to a bureaucracy which worked at cross-purposes and covered tracks, revealing the soft underbelly of India’s supposed ‘steel frame.’ Some may console themselves that criminality was not conclusively rejected but prosecution failed to marshal evidence to prove it. This will not suffice if our objective is to design fail-safe systems. It is time to restart the discourse on CBI autonomy, professionalism, and building expertise in probing graft cases. Political control of CBI contributes to perceptions of witch hunt and ends up politicising corruption investigations, even as it short-circuits cultivation of professional expertise.
Why India voted against the US on Jerusalem
India’s vote against US decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in the UN General Assembly espouses that, while it has shed its inhibitions in publicly engaging Israel, it has not abandoned its support for the Palestinian cause and the two-state solution. Indeed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by visiting Israel and not Ramallah on his trip, like most world leaders, has de-hyphenated India’s relations with Israel and Palestine. Through its actions, India has indicated that it deals with its foreign relations in their own right, without worrying about a third party. Indian foreign policy has shifted from normative posturing in favour of pragmatism and self-interest-based action. The changing international landscape following the end of the Cold War, and India’s shift from the periphery to the centre of the international system, have been instrumental in this. India’s careful and delicate balancing act is nowhere more evident than in the volatile Middle East.
The Middle East is an important region for India’s commercial, security, energy, and diplomatic interests. India’s 2016-2017 trade with Arab countries, at $121 billion, accounts for 18.25 per cent of India’s total trade, while its trade with Israel, at $5 billion, accounts for less than one per cent of total trade. India has robust commercial, security, and defence ties with Israel, while Arab states are important sources of remittances, employment, and energy. India’s bonhomie with Israel meant that there was a high possibility of India abstaining from the UNGA vote. In fact, while traditionally voting in favour of Palestine at the UN, India had abstained from the UNHRC vote against Israel in 2015, marking the first official signs of a shift in policy. India has also recently attempted to moderate the NAM anti-Israel resolutions. Moreover, during Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ recent visit to India, Prime Minister Modi reiterated India’s support to the Palestinian cause, stating that “there should be a sovereign, independent, united and viable Palestine, co-existing peacefully with Israel.” Modi’s vigorous and confident diplomacy saw in July 2017 the first-ever visit by an Indian prime minister to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's four-day visit to India starting on 14th January shows that Indian vote in UN did not antagonise Tel Aviv.
However, India has been equally active in ensuring its diplomatic impression in the Arab world. Preceding his Israel visit, Modi pragmatically pursued a thorough engagement with the Arab world by visiting Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, inviting the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi as the chief guest for Republic Day celebrations. This laid the groundwork for his Israel visit, while alleviating possible damage and making the visit less controversial both within India and the region.
Rajnikanth has a mountain to climb
After months of suspense of whether he will or not, at last on 31 December, on the last day of 2017, superstar Rajnikanth announced his first foot forward in Indian politics. He has been pondering, consulting his fans, meeting, perhaps negotiating with other political structures in both State and at the Centre for a while now. Most popular film star not only in Tamil Nadu but over all of south India, 'Thalaivaa' (leader) Rajnikanth has a name and fame to go with.
His critics already have started making pun “Rajnikanth ... Rajni can’t.” Whether he may or may not be, only time will tell.
In Tamil Nadu for almost half of the last century, it is the film stars who dominated their state politics. Dravidian movement in south India predominantly centred in the present day Tamil Nadu has a long and checkered history. It has caused dangerous situations for the Federal Union of India at some stage. Historically there was a grievance of the South being dominated by the North, imposing of Hindi over the rich heritage of Tamil, Telugu, Kannada and Malayalam languages.
One more dimension is that most of south India remained intact with the age old Hindu heritage escaping the distraction and devastation of the Muslim invaders. This is evidential from the beautiful monuments and temples and other architectures, the wonders all over south India, especially Tamil Nadu.
If Indians are keen film goers, perhaps one can say, half in humour, Tamils are mad about films and film stars. DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) was started by a non Tamil, who has been an icon for nationalism. NT Rama Rao, Karunanidhi, Jayalalitha and several others entered the political fray and earned their name through celluloid.
In that context Rajnikant has been following a pedigree. Like C N Annadurai, the founder of DMK, Rajnikanth also is a non Tamil to begin with. He was born Shivaji Rao Gaekwad in a very challenging circumstances. He has rose from a coolie, to a bus conductor, other minor jobs, a small part villain in Tamil films to his present prominence. He has a better image of public service and to a certain extend he is a man of the people, committed to certain values and that may be his trump card. His fan club is huge, he has started setting up the part in the ernest. On 14 January he will announce the details.
Rajnikant has two important targets in his timeline. First is the Parliament election by May 2019. In the present Lok Sabha (Lower house of Indian Parliament) Tamil Nadu has sent 39 MPs, 37 from Jayalalitha’s AIDMK. In the last Lok sabha, in the second term of UPA government, DMK sustained the Manmohan Singh government, dashing their numbers and causing so much corruption and scandals. With Jayalalitha's departure and ailing Karunanidhi, battle lines are drawn in Tamil Nadu with Rajnikant, as a new entrant.
Rajnikant may have studied how President Macron in France launched a new political party and won majority in just 15 months. The similarities are only slight. Macron has had experience of politics and running a ministry in the previous French government. Also Macron was much younger and in a way his marriage to a much older Brigitte was an added advantage!!
It is important to note that this is the first time someone has launched a campaign 18 months before the Parliament election and 3 years befor the State election, with huge hopes and huge expectations. Speculations are a bound about which way the new political alignment will develop in the state. Rajnikant can perhaps fill the vacuum created by the present commotions in the two political parties. He may even have made some overtures with the main national parties. Rajnikanth has a mountain to climb but what he has surely done is jolted the AIADMK & DMK. In short, politics in Tamil Nadu just got more interesting. The public of the state are ready to give Rajinikanth a hearing. Now it is up to the man himself, to make it count.