India Japan Summit a watershed
The turbulence in global order may well be likened to an earthquake high on the Richter scale. US President Donald Trump’s solution to every problem, great and small, facing his country is a quantum increase in the country’s defence budget and the imposition of arbitrary economic sanctions on a range of countries, from Russia, China, Iran, et al for myriad sins of omission and commission..
Global volatility has forced the world’s leading powers to take stock of their relationships and cast anchor in peaceful waters. India and Japan are two such powers in the strategic Asia Pacific region. Japan is the world’s third largest economy and long a technological and industrial power house off the Asian mainland. India is its pivotal peninsula surrounded by Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf on the west, the Bay of Bengal in the east and the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean in the south.
India is Asia’s geographical fulcrum, the third largest economy after China and Japan engaged in an epic sweep of economic and social transformation that will take decades to fulfill.. Hence the Indo-Japan partnership is one of depth and continental scope, multifaceted and set to grow. Japan has recently reset its China button during Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to Beijing – the first such visit in seven years - for talks with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang. Mr Abe, while keeping faith with his country’s security ties with the United States, was keen to normalize political ties with China following verbal battles over territorial disputes in the Sea of Japan. It is part of the Great Game fit for 21st century purpose. China, faced by American pressure, is compelled by circumstances to ease its relations with regional rivals.
India, for its part, has put its relations with China on an even keel – doing business, when and where possible, and engaging in a conversation with Beijing to keep things ticking over. There are no illusions of deeper trust. Rivalry is refracted through wariness, not by force of arms. Beijing’s all-weather friendship with Pakistan will continue. Pakistani-armed jihadis keep India preoccupied, and hence contained.
Such considerations do not bedevil Indo-Japanese relationship. Both countries and their leaders speak from the same page. India’s has much to gain from a stronger Japan, and Japan, likewise, is reassured by deepening ties with India in all sectors, and by taking this forward in a partnership in Africa as a possible hedge against Chinese heft.
Prime Ministers Modi and Abe in their Tokyo Summit signed a bilateral currency swap of $75 billion, which will help in bringing greater stability in India’s foreign exchange and capital markets. This facility will enable the agreed amount being available to India for use as and when the need arises, said a joint statement by the two leaders. The impact of the currency swap was dramatic. The slide of the rupee halted; its recovery followed as did the country’s stock exchanges.
India and Japan are to commence a 2+2 Dialogue between their respective Defence and Foreign Ministers to give strategic content to the relationship. ‘Without the the cooperation between India and Japan, the 21 st century cannot be an Asian century, said Mr Modi during a joint address to the media with Prime Minister Abe. Both leaders spoke of their agreement on the core issues of digital partnership, cyberspace, health, naval tie-ups, space etc. Mr Abe reaffirmed Japanese commitment to India’s bullet train project from Mumbai to Ahmedabad, for which Japan will grant India soft loans.
Prime Minister Modi met with Japanese business leaders and appealed them to make India a primary investment destination. Japanese CEOs were appreciative of India’s continuing economic reforms which promised richer dividends going forward. Indian and Japanese businessmen held separate meetings on subjects of common interest, underlining a relationship that is set to strengthen with time.
Counting the cost of appeasement
Pragmatism in foreign policy as a general principal is a recipe for success. But there are limits beyond which pragmatism loses its shape; in other words, it fails to yield the expected dividends. India, like countries across continents, is learning to navigate the rapids of uncertainty, bluster and threats that keep emanating from the Trump Administration in Washington. President Trump’s economic sanctions against countries that fall foul of his administration are absurdist. The Administration’s Rottweiler John Bolton has cast Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua beyond the pale, along with Iran, for their alleged lack of democracy. Saudi Arabia, in contrast, is still a favoured US ally, notwithstanding the hideous murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in the country’s Consulate in Istanbul.
Such is the backcloth to the crippling sanctions announced on Iranian oil exports beginning from early November. The reason behind America’s ire is Iran’s alleged development of nuclear weapons. Stringent safeguards are in place following prolonged negotiations between Iran and six major powers including the US (during the Obama administration), the UK, EU, France, Germany and Russia. The signatories have held fast to the deal. The US game, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unabashedly proclaimed, that regime change in Tehran was the name of the game.
India has bent over backwards to assuage American sensibilities, hoping no doubt that good sense would prevail in Washington. New Delhi invited President Trump to be the guest of honour at India’s Republic Day celebrations on 26 January 2019, which he regretfully refused for scheduling problems. The Indian government was amiss in not clearing this privately with the White House prior to the official notification. The haste reflected a neuralgic craving to please.
India is a sovereign nation, with its own democratic institutions including a constitution. It cannot barter the national interest at the pleasure of a third power, even if that power be the United States of America. Indian purchases of Iranian oil must continue regardless. The US has now exempted eight countries from its embargo, with India, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan heading the Asian list. Indeed, the $500 million India-financed development project for the Iranian port of Chabahar as India’s ambitious gateway to Central Asia and Russia is thus safe, at least for now. US sanctions against Iran have also been rejected by the European Union.
Khadi Poppy Day
November 11, 1918 marked the end of World War I or the Great War, as it is often referred to in historical records. The received wisdom at its outbreak was that the war, which started at the end of July 1914, would end by Christmas. Instead, it dragged on for four years and more, having decimated victors and vanquished alike in the carnage of battles of the Marne, Somme, Gallipoli and others that still evoke horror at the loss of lives in the hells of trench warfare. The poppies on the graves of the fallen have become symbols of remembrance. It was fitting that the 1.7 million soldiers who enlisted for service in defence of the British Empire, thus of Britain herself and the Allied cause, should evoke fresh respect for their contributions to the war effort.
This was the first time that the British Indian Army would be called upon to fight in Europe. The cold and unfamiliar terrain and a well trained enemy in German troops would present challenges never encountered before. Men from undivided India held one-third of the British line for a year in Belgium and France, until Britain had fully mobilized. German forces were taken aback by the valour and discipline under fire of their Indian foes. These were later switched to the Middle East, where they outfought the Ottoman Turks, liberating Syria, Mesopotamia and Palestine.
Prime Minister Theresa May remarked movingly on the eleven Victoria Crosses earned by these men, the khadi Poppy a worthy tribute to the 74,000 who died in performance of their duty on battlefields far from home. Theirs not to question why/Theirs but to do and die.