Prime Minister Theresa May has surprised UK voters as well as the world by ordering a snap poll on 8th June. The House of Commons overwhelmingly supported her decision - 522 in favour and 9 against. She said that Britain needed clarity, stability and strong leadership following the EU referendum. Till the last minute she was denying the possibility of a snap poll, then suddenly why she wanted to go for a vote?
During the course of her rule, she realised how difficult it was to govern without a personal mandate. She owes her position to Conservative lawmakers who chose her to succeed David Cameron after the Brexit referendum. Since then she has chosen a course that appeals to the right wing of her party and the anti-immigrant section of the UK public opinion, but which is deeply unpopular with business and with much of the country. She desperately needed a mandate of her own from voters to bolster her authority. May's Conservatives has only 17-seat majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. That leaves her vulnerable to revolts from even a small number of lawmakers. A bigger majority would protect her from such revolts and give her greater freedom to negotiate the Brexit bill.
An opinion poll gives Conservatives a 21-point lead over Labour. This means a landslide victory for Conservatives in the polls. Labour is divided between the hard-left leadership team of Jeremy Corbyn and a coterie of liberal lawyers and financiers under former PM Tony Blair. May said that she wanted to silence and neutralise those who are trying to stop or reverse the Brexit process. But such opposition from Scottish nationalists, the House of Lords and financiers was predictable in July when May took over. May could not call an election before she had settled her own party's internal debate on Brexit. It became clear that she won't be able tie up a deal on the UK's trade relationship with EU before 2020, when the next general election would have to be held anyway. Winning a new five year term would reduce the pressure on her in 2019, when the negotiations on the separation agreement has to be finalised. That would firm up her position in the negotiations.
If the negotiations fail, UK might end up losing the Northern and Southern islands. There is no common border between Ireland and UK. In case Ireland decides to join the European Union, it could hurt Britain beyond repair. Irish exports to the UK account for up to 1.2 million pounds worth of goods. In case of a possible separation (given the EU's steady persuasion) UK will have to face several trade problems. Same is the case with Scotland which is reportedly contemplating another referendum. In the negotiations for separation from EU, UK has to be very careful since Germany wanted to retain its hegemony. It currently stands second to China in surplus trade; maintaining more exports than imports.
In the next four weeks of election campaign, Brexit negotiations will become clearer. Unlike during the campaign for Brexit vote, the British politicians should not play with innuendoes and people's emotions. They should take up genuine issues for campaign. Playing with people's emotions will only vitiate the harmonious atmosphere.
Indian economy set to surpass Germany by 2022
According to an analysis of growth projections of countries by the International Monetary Fund, India is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth-largest economy by 2022, knocking out the UK out of the fifth rank, in the bid. The recently released report said that India is still recuperating from the lasting consequences of the November demonetisation move. While the Modi government's GST plan guarantee happy results and will mend the broken economy in the long run, the country's banking system and its public finances raise several red flags. Both the factors are vital since global credit rating agencies currently rate Indian debt instruments just above the 'junk' status. IMF also cited that according to government data, bad loans, restructured debt, and advances to companies that cannot service their debt have risen to 16.6 per cent of total loans. India's fast-growing population is expected to boost economic activity, and help India outpace developed nations.
On the bright side, India has become the hub for mobile phones, electronic goods, cars, and houses. The projected growth of the Indian economy is set to grow at an annual average rate of 8 per cent in the next 15 years as stated by think-tank Niti Aayog while the IMF has capped it at 7.2 per cent per year. In contrast, the financial institution projects UK's growth at 2 per cent in 2017, and 1.8 per cent in 2018. While the road to become the fourth-largest economy by 2022 is not smooth, India in no time, will topple its colonial master.
Pakistan ignoring Vienna Convention in Jadhav case
Complicating the existing boiling relations between South Asian neighbours India and Pakistan, the latter even chose to ignore pleas and direct warnings from New Delhi. While the Indian government has been trying to lower former Indian naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav's death sentence to at least life imprisonment, Pakistan on the other hand, seems to be enjoying the political upper hand, taking pride on having symbolically brought India to its knees. For a country internationally known to harbour terrorists and terrorism, Pakistan obviously fails to understand the importance of civil lives. India, meanwhile, has always managed the same approach for its citizens, be it a group or an individual, it has done its best to deliver justice.
India has requested for consular access to Jadhav on 16 different occasions. However, Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit effectively ruled out the possibility in a recent interview, saying Islamabad will go by domestic laws in deciding on India's plea, instead of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. He stated that while Pakistan agrees on the Vienna Convention, it cannot be given preference over domestic laws. Not only is the decision a violation of human rights, it portrays Pakistan's intense hatred towards India. The mere fact that they are keen on executing an Indian national without convincing proof, wards it incapable of making any kind of justice. However, as trying as Basit's attitude may be, it did not come as a shock as in the past, he has never backed down from showcasing his love for Kashmiri separatists and promoting their anti-national activities.
Not only does the decision affect India, it also affects the Pakistani government, mostly Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The pushing of the Pakistan army in the sentencing of Jadhav, is a sure-shot sign that it is yet again asserting itself after the retirement of Raheel Sharif. New Delhi may lodge a mercy petition to the Pakistani President within 90 days after the Pak army chief makes a decision. There aren't definite benefits; with the lack of consular access how will Jadhav arrange for a competent lawyer to represent him? The only option remaining is to propose an exchange, bringing in Jadhav for a former ISI official believed to be in Indian custody.
In Pakistan's most inhuman act, two BSF soldiers' bodies were found beheaded and mutilated along the Line of Control. Under the cover of heavy rocket and mortar fire, early on Monday morning, Pakistan's Border Action Team sneaked 250 metres across the LoC into the Poonch sector in Jammu and Kashmir and beheaded of Naib Subedar Paramjeet Singh of 22 Sikh Infantry and Head Constable Prem Sagar of 200th Battalion of BSF. As preposterous the act, this isn't the first time the BAT mutilated Indian soldiers. The incident is beyond despicable and will soon be addressed with a befitting reply.
