The simmering border confrontation between India waxes and wanes, as and when China decides to switch off and switch on the reset button. Beijing has opted for the long game and India is best advised to respond accordingly. China’s invasion and occupation of Tibet in November 1950 was timed with its intervention in the Korean War. With American and Allied boots on the ground in Korea, the world’s attention was drawn to developments on the Korean peninsula, understandable since the spectre of a nuclear Armageddon loomed menacingly large.
Such was not the case with Tibet, a distant Shangrila, of which very little was known, except in fanciful tales of lamas and lamasaries. India knew a great deal more, then and much before, but chose to accept the ground realities, for in truth a weakened India traumatized by the surgery of Partition and the blood spilled, could do little by way of contesting Chinese military power across the border. There were, of course, diplomatic methods open to the Government of India, such as non-recognition of China’s claims to Tibet, thus leaving country’s position indeterminate in internal law, but it chose to abjure this course, believing that placating China would be wise, hence fruitful. The solace of incantations, of Hindi, Chini bhai bhai became the rage, the sedative being anti-colonial, anti-imperial solidarity, with little understanding of historical truth that China, even in the era of its weakness, was both a colonial and an imperial power just like the Ottoman Empire which straddled the Balkans and most of the Middle East, save Iran.
Signing a treaty with Beijing in April 1954,accepting Chinese rule over Tibet without any reciprocal gesture on boundary demarcation was folly. Panch Sheel or the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence in the fullness of time turned out be the five shrouds of Tibet’s burial. For China Panch Sheel was licence to China to do what it willed in Tibet, so when the Tibetan rebellion broke out in 1958, and the Dalai fled his country in March 1959 and sought sanctuary in India, he was welcomed and willingly given asylum, China perceived this as interference in China’s internal affairs. Relations with India deteriorated, leading to the war of 1962. Relations have never truly recovered. The recent crisis in the Sino-Indian relationship started with the Dalai Lama’s presence in India. China wanted the right of veto over where he travelled in the country, what he did and what he says as a ‘core’ Chinese interest. If India were to concur, it would be reduced to a Chinese tributary state.
The presentd crisis erupted with Chinese road-building in a sensitive area abutting Bhutan, a flatland from where light tanks can operate in a coordinated military assault on Bhutan and on India. Beijing has reacted ferociously to protests from both nations. Bhutan chooses not have diplomatic ties with China, which is its sovereign right. Beijing calculates that it can frighten Bhutan into diluting its close relationship with India with a show of belligerence. India, rightly, has refused to back down. The crisis has reached boiling point. Somewhere, at some time, China has to be faced off, otherwise there will be no end to this cat-and-mouse blackmail of threats and blandishments.
History has answers to questions seeming remote and incomprehensible. In 1908 W.F O’Connor, a brilliant British frontier official with great local insight into people and events penned a notable minute on the area currently in contention.. O’Connor warned Government against the cession of the Chumbi Valley to China, writing: ‘It is a wedge of foreign territory thrust down to the south of the Himalayas…In the hands of a foreign (and possibly hostile) Power it is always a thorn in our side…a cause of friction in peace and embarrassment in time of war.’
When a Chinese force stormed Lhasa in February 1910, the Morning Post in London reflected presciently ‘…a great Empire, the future military strength of which no man can foresee, has suddenly appeared on the North-East Frontier of India…The problem of the North-West thus bids fair to be duplicated in the long run…The evacuation of the Chumbi Valley was a blunder. The Strategic Line has been lost, and a heavy price may be exacted for the mistake. China, in a word, has come to the gates of India, and the fact has to e reckoned with.’ Enough said.
Realism defines Modi-Trump talks
The much awaited meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump was cordial, and the overall result positive. They were in accord on the threat to their respective countries. They pointed to Pakistan as a major platform for jihadi terrorism, pointing to Pakistan-based Syed Salahuddin, who operates in Kashmir. Messers Modi and Trump wanted international designation of Salahauddin as a ‘terrorist. ‘ This has set the cat among the pigeons in Hurriyat ranks. President Trump lauded the Indian Prime Minister as a ‘true friend’ and complimented him on India’s economic reforms, acknowledging that the country growth was the fastest in the world. India’s Jet Airways recently purchased 100 Boeing aircraft to service its international and domestic routes. The acquisition of US drones and other defence deals were confirmed. India, the US and Japan will also conduct extensive naval exercises in the Indian Ocean.
The Trump Administration and Congress have been increasingly critical of Pakistan’s role in fomenting, funding and training jihadi groups working to destabilize Afghanistan.
However, as a global Superpower the US has wide range of strategic interests in each corner of every continent. Indian interests are scaled to its limited ambitions, hence the two countries are unlikely to be in sync on a number of issues. Adding to this mix is President Trump’s unpredictability and lack of consistency. The US in embroiled in a dangerous military confrontation with Russia. Yet, on his campaign trail, Mr Trump had promised a close cooperation with Russia in the fight against ISIS terrorism. Relations now are near rock bottom. Russians are slow to saddle, but once they do they ride fast. The US President would do well to take pause.
Finally, the US-China relationship is complex. China is the largest holder of American debt; in addition their bilateral trade and investment is many times the scale between India and the United States. Democratic Taiwan, to which China has long made claim, is a sticking point. The Chinese people of Taiwan wish to translate their de facto independence into de jure status, but US and its allies have had no qualms in accepting Beijing position. The rest of the world cravenly has followed suit.
To sum up, India and the United States will concentrate on what each side can deliver on trade, investment and intellectual property rights and so. Fraught subjects farther afield will be left for general discussion and consultation. This may not sound romantic but statecraft was never perceived as a romance. It is enough to be practical and take from the table items that are digestible. Expecting more is to invite disappointment.
GST celebrated with gusto
The landmark Goods and Services (GST) became operational at the midnight hour of July 1. The occasion was celebrated in Parliament with understandable fanfare. The opposition Congress party in a show of juvenile petulance stayed away.
President Pranab Mukherjee hailed the occasion with a public display of support with Mr Modi at his side. In the gathering of the great and good were Dr Asim Dasgupta and Ratan Tata sitting next to each other. Dr Dasgupta, a brilliant economist with a doctorate from MIT was the man entrusted by the first BJP prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to write the original GST draft, a complex and arduous undertaking which Dr Dasgupta performed with extraordinary skill. That he was the Finance Minister in the Communist Left Front government West Bengal played no part in Mr Vajpayee’s decision. Dr Dasgupta was appointed because he was the best man for the job. His work constitutes the core of the finished GST.
GST represents the collective will of the Indian people – the result of close consultation, at every stage, between the Central government and the States. It was an inspiring lesson of federalism at work. The GST is India’s common market. Long may it endure and take India forward.
