Following the Indian Army’s strikes across the Line of Control in Kashmir, a period of relative calm returned to India and Pakistan., helped, no doubt by Islamabad’s state of denial. According to a report in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper, the country’s military and intelligence heads and senior government ministers, discussed the international standing. The ministers pointed to Pakistan’s loss of credibility abroad because of the impunity enjoyed by jihadi terror groups, whose cross-border attacks on Indian lives and property were carried out with the full approval of the Pakistan military and its related intelligence services..
Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, told his interlocutors that unless these groups were reined in, the country’s foreign policy objectives, most notably on Kashmir and relations with India, would be thwarted and Islamabad would fail to get any sympathetic hearing from foreign governments and civil societies.
Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper reported the meeting. It was penned by its senior writer Cyril Almeida and appeared on October 6. All hell, it would appear, broke loose. The government, in a menacing state of denial, debunked the story and imposed a travel ban on Mr Almeida, who now fears for his safety and, very likely, his life. That has been the standard practice in Pakistan for years, with courageous journalists who went a step too far disappearing and never being heard of again. You can bet there won’t be too much fuss or bother if Mr Almeida were to vanish without trace.. The Obama administration and the US President himself can be expected to express their concern, without impeding the flow of the US military-financial aid package to Islamabad. Belong, as he does, to Pakistan’s beleaguered Christian community, Mr Almeida will be fair game, hereon, for the jihadi assassin in search of heavenly grace, for having dispatched a cursed infidel in time-honoured fashion. As President Obama is a Nobel Peace laureatre, his intervention may help.
Meanwhile, the Nawaz Sharif government sent two special envoys to Washington to cajole and bully its political establishment into supporting Pakistan over Kashmir and much else. One of the envoys, Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed thundered to a gathering at the capital’s Stimson Center that America being a declining power, Pakistan had in place an alliance with Russia, China and Iran up its sleeve. His colleague, Shezra Mansab, a would-be conjuror, sought to alarm his audience with talk of Pakistan’s nuclear weaponry.
Neither Houdini was able to pull it off. American audiences are accustomed to such clowning. More embarrassing, by far, was Russia’s robust support for India’s strikes at jihadi targets, which Ambassador Alexander Kadakin in New Delhi described at what he described as ‘Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’ – a term over which every Indian government – but no foreign government - has enjoyed exclusive copyright. No longer, apparently, as Russia’s use of the words demonstrate only too well. If this wasn’t enough, the Ambassador said India could rely on Russian support should it decide to strike again in face of further Pakistani provocation. Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed should return home wiser, ready to take an elementary course in courtesy and good manners, when speaking on foreign soil. Methinks neither man did his state great service in Washington.
Ministry of External Affairs sources in New Delhi, said Indian ministers were delighted by Ambassador Kadakin’s forthright statement, which went further than that of any other country. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj assured him that India’s relationship with the United States would have no bearing on India’s strong, time-tested ties with Russia. Watch this space for the BRICS Summit in Goa, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold one-to-one talks with President Vladimir Putin. Two fearless men, with no-nonsense attitudes: the outcomes of their conversation should be very interesting indeed.
Chinese companies eye Indian opportunities
Increasing numbers of Chinese companies are looking to India for business opportunities. Global Times – the mouthpiece of the country’s establishment commented recently that first duty in these difficult times was for Chinese companies to investment in China. However, the balance of Sino-Indian trade has been weighted hugely in China’s favour, crossing $52 billion in 2014-15, forcing India’s Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to raise the issue with her Chinese counterpart Wang Showen. She requested that Indian pharmaceutical companies – most with US and EU accreditations – and IT companies be given easier access to the Chinese market, which the Chinese Minister promised to expedite. Meanwhile Chinese capital venture funds are lining up to make low-profile investments in India. For instance, Kinzon Capital, the venture capital arm of Chinese conglomerate Fosun International, has $200 million with which to invest in 10-12 Indian startups. The interest among such funds comes in the backdrop of global internet giant Alibaba investment in Paytem.
Kinzon has already made key appointments in India, hiring Tej Kapoor, former country head of London-based investment firm Daily Mail Group, and Ajay Lakhotia, former India head of Vertex Management, to drive its venture capital investment. The Fosun Group, with an annual revenue of $12 billion and profit of $1.2 billion has also launched its private equity business in India, having appointed Rahul Raisurana, former Managing Director of Standard Chartered Equity’s India unit. Fosun is also making its way into the Indian real-estate sector, with local appointments to oversee the company’s operations.
The question to be asked is what drives this increasing Chinese business presence in India. Is it the mounting problems of the economy back home? Problems there undoubtedly are that can no longer escape the attention of international China watchers. David Shambaugh, a noted American authority on the country, has written an acclaimed study, ‘China’s Future,’ in which he quotes a past Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao as saying that the nation’s economy is ‘unstable, unbalanced , uncoordinated and unsustainable.’ His successor, the present Prime Minister Le Keqiang has said’ China’s economic growth model remains inefficient; our capacity for innovation insufficient; over capacity is a pronounced problem and the foundation of agriculture is weak.’ China’s President Xi Jinping has also lamented that ‘the tasks our Party faces in reform, development and stability are more onerous than ever – and the conflicts, dangers and challenges are more numerous than ever.’
The Economist (May 7, 2016) provided a somber diagnostic analysis, from which the following passage is quoted: ‘This is a government not so much guiding events as struggling to keep up with them. In the past year alone, China has spent nearly $200 billion to prop up the stock market; $65 billion of bank loans have gone bad, financial frauds have cost investors at least $20 billion; and $600 billion of capital has left the country. To help growth, officials have inflated a property bubble. Debt is still expanding twice as fast as the economy.’
Having read the signs, are Chinese entrepreneurs and investors looking to India as a safe haven? Maybe. It should set us thinking about the deeper ramifications of Sino-Indian relations and the possible consequences of the fallout on the Sino-Pakistan strategic alignment. Every imperial slippage in the last five hundred years has begun with a severe financial disorder.
Tourist surge in Ladakh
Not many tourists would want to make it the Kashmir valley, where the Hurriyat’s jihadi writ reigns supreme. The quiet of Ladakh, where there is much to savour, both from its pristine view of the high Himalayas, its exquisite valleys and streams and, not least, its warm, welcoming inhabitants. Having tasted its pleasures, the thirst keeps growing. Hence visitors return in ever increasing numbers, from India and from foreign parts, notably Europe and America. Ladakh’s culture is of the Buddhist tradition of neighbouring Tibet. The problem is the state’s small population, which is a mere 280,000, and the tourist numbers expected in 2017 to number 313,000.
Traditional life revolved around herding and growing wheat in the valleys, very much a community exercise with families helping each other ou in the harvesting season.. But times are changing. A larger airport at Leh, the capital, and better roads have made remote areas increasingly accessible. Hotel space may be limited but many homes have been opened to visitors, as is now common practice in Sikkim. Education opportunities have increased and the ubiquitous laptop is a common sight among the young. The old world is slowly making way for the new. Development is now the State mantra but the hope is that tradition and modernity can be woven into a seamless reality.
