Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi with the largest ever delegation in attendance to press multiple buttons designed to power ties with India into an exciting new orbit of collaboration in diverse fields, from defence, space, science, technology and much else. The traction of the 2018 annual summit has left a deep impression on viewers, and the results over time will surely be perceived as a defining paradigm in India-Russia relations. The agenda for the summit was prepared with vision and application. The chemistry between the Indian Prime Minister and Russian President made the occasion truly memorable. The cameras do not lie. Trust, wrote Harold Nicolson in his classic work, The Congress of Vienna, is the enduring strength between nations whose national interests converge. President Putin pointed out, in his reply to his host, that Russia and India were bonded by a convergence of views on all the major global issues of the day. Their two one-on- one conversations lasted two and three hours each, and hence reflected the depth of their understanding; these preceded by delegation level talks.
This indeed has been the key to the close historic ties between New Delhi and Moscow from 1950 to the present day. Resident Putin understood this from the day he took office in the Kremlin. He conceptualized the annual Indo-Soviet summits to alternate between the Russian and Indian capitals; he was the architect of BRICS, the organization representing Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – an alternative forum for emergent economies across continents as a standout to the ones set up and dominated by the West. President Putin, like all masters of statecraft is adept at the long game of the Great Game.
The uninitiated would do well to read a piece in The Pioneer newspaper (January 26, 2010) on the durability of the India-Russia relationship by Dr Ashok Parthasarathi, a Cambridge educate astrophysicist, once prime minister Indira Gandhi’s scientific advisor. A critical paragraph of his article reads as follows: ‘To those like me who have worked with the Soviet Union/Russian Federation [the] vastly different treatment of us, right across the board and particularly the highly sensitive nuclear area is no surprise at all… relations in high-technology – nuclear, space, defence, intelligence gathering, and interpretation – have made even the so-called US-UK special relationship look like a tea party.’
Dr Parthasarathi concluded: ‘This brief account would indicate that our entire independent foreign and security policy is based fundamentally on an incalculably invaluable …debt to the Soviet Union/Russian Federation…[for] our very existence as an independent nation state.’
Moving to the present, India and Russia sealed a raft of deals, so diverse and ambitious going forward into the future, that a clearly awed Russian correspondent covering the event told his TV audience that it might take him a full day to do justice to what had transpired. India is to acquire five of Russia’s awesome S-400 Trumf air defence missile systems capable of simultaneously handling 84 incoming aircraft and missiles at a distance of 400km. The system will greatly augment Indian air power; in addition, Russia will supply four advanced frigates to the Indian Navy, two of which are to be built in Indian shipyards; India will also acquire Russian A-47 assault rifles to be manufactured in Indian ordinance facilities. Cooperation in space, railways, agriculture, energy including Arctic exploration, extended to the continued construction of more Russian nuclear power plants in India – the entire gamut covered in a total of 8 agreements.
Speaking to a large gathering of Indians and Russians, Prime Minister Modi said that India’s tested relationship with Russia was critical at a time of serious geopolitical challenges; President Putin dittoed the message, saying Indian and Russian defence ministers and military chiefs were in constant contact on all issues of mutual interest. He advocated greater use of national currencies in bilateral trade.
Mr Modi made a pointed reference to India’s desire for friendly ties with all countries, but stressed the refusal to accept ‘vassal’ status under any foreign dispensation. A Bantustan global order underpinned by capricious sanctions is a doomed crusade.
US seeks settlement with China
The Trump Administration for all its truculent rhetoric on China, may, in fact, be looking for a trade settlement broadly similar to the deal it recently struck with Mexico and Canada. Media reports have carried news of an impending visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to negotiate an end to the confrontation over tariffs. China, it is increasingly clear, is not champing at the bit for a conflict with the United States of America. Lest it be forgotten, China and the United States were close de facto allies, during the Nixon-Kissinger dispensation in Washington in the early 1970s.. The US Administration at the time was firmly wedded to China against the Soviet Union and India, in support of their client, Yahya Khan, head of the genocidal military dictatorship in Islamabad.
Xi Jinping regime may also be looking for a settlement with the US, since this would give the Chinese leadership space to leverage diplomacy and economic and military heft to realize Beijing’s ambition to assume the global role to which it has long aspired. Both sides recognize their overlapping interests in North and Southeast Asia and, maybe, in South Asia and the Greater Middle East, as well. It is possible, just possible, that the Trump Administration may have used Henry Kissinger’s back channel contacts in Beijing to craft a fresh arrangement to bolster US-China ties. However, China has its hidden vulnerabilities. For instance, Beijing has banned negative reports on China’s economy. A government directive circulated to foreign journalists, far from quieting domestic concerns, such draconian measures may simply add to the feared chaos of Beijing’s nightmare.
More significant is the likelihood that the Chinese economy may not be ticking over quite as faultlessly as the Beijing mandarins would like to project to the wider world. David Shambaugh, a noted authority on the country, quotes Premier Li Keqiang’s statement in 2015 to closed sessions of the Communist Party faithful that, ‘China’s economic growth model remains inefficient, our innovation capacity is insufficient; overcapacity is a pronounced problem; and agriculture is weak.’
He is not alone. According to McKinsey Global Institute, China’s debt burden stands at an unfathomable 28 trillion dollars. Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, a hedge fund of 3 billion dollar, who predicted the collapse of US giant Enron, in a speech at the University of Oxford Associates, said China was ‘on the treadmill to hell.’ The Economist warned: ‘Its-debt-to GDP ratio has soared to from 150 per cent to 260 per cent over a decade, the kind of a surge that is usually followed by a bust or an abrupt slowdown…Problem loans have doubled in two years and, officially, are at already 5.5 per cent of banks’ total lending. The reality is grimmer. Roughly two-fifths of new debt is swallowed by interest on existing loans. ….In the past year alone. China has spent $200 billion to prop up the stock market; $65 billion of bank loans have gone bad; financial frauds have cost the investors at least $20 billion, and $600 billion of capital has left the country.’ China’s Belt and Road project is buckling under the strain.
US Vice President Mike Pence has accused China of collaborating with his country’s Democrats to overthrow President Donald Trump! Music hall comedy or psychological pressure, perhaps, to coincide with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s talks in Beijing.
New star has risen
Man- of-the-Match 18 year-old Test debutant Prithvi Shaw, stole the show at Rajkot with a glorious display with the bat in the First Test match against the touring Windies. Sachin Tendulkar, having seen Prithvi bat as a tender 10 year-old in Mumbai, predicted his rise to stardom. The prophecy was fulfilled magically on the opening day, when Shaw tore the Windies attack to shreds with 134 runs of bewildering authority and panache in one so young.
Michael Vaugh, a former England captain and vintage batsman, hailed Prithvi Shaw as the game’s new superstar. Virat Kohli, the Indian captain, said Shaw was ready for Test cricket at the Oval against England. Why then, didn’t he play? Lacked ‘experience’ was the tested selectors’ buzzword.
Windies were trounced by an innings and 272 runs. They have every incentive to do better at Hyderabad – the venue of the Second Testing on October 12.
