Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s landmark visit to Indonesia is a coda to the international community in a period of diplomatic turbulence. Indonesia is the largest and most populous nation in Southeast Asia. Its cultural links with India stretch across centuries, with both countries achieved their independence within a couple of years of each other. The first Asian summit of the newly independent states of the continent took place in the Indonesian city of Bandung in 1955. That remains a niche in the histories of both countries and of the region as a whole.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit has significance no less great. Indeed, it may well be judged even greater as both countries today have come a long during these intervening decades; their economic and military muscle have more clout than ever before. Mr Modi’s visit to Indonesia should be viewed on the canvas of his recent informal summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, and the trip to North Korea of a high level Indian delegation, with guests and hosts resetting the button to a closer and more relationship.
The next point to consider is US pressure on India to sever its defence ties with Russia, its major and most-tested advance weapons’ supplier. For a list, see Brahma Chellaney’s edit-page article in the Times of India (May 31) on Indo-Russian defence arrangements. Indonesia’s mainstay in the air is the Russian SU 35 warplane, while Vietnam, a close ally of India, continues to source much of its defence needs from Moscow. Southeast Asia’s two most powerful countries are as unlikely, as is India, to jettison a critical relationship with a military superpower on America’s orders.
That said and well understood by both parties, India and Indonesia have decided to expand their strategic partnership by signing 9 pacts in defencce, space and railways and 6 around business. These are 15 in all and counting. This was Mr Modi’s first visit to Jakarta, where he was accorded a warm welcome by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. The two leaders in their first discussion dwelt on infrastructure development and an economic zone at Sabang on the tip of Sumatra Island at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, one of the busiest shipping routes for global commerce. The port of Sabang is to be deepened to accommodate commercial and naval traffic.
‘India is a strategic partner.… we will continue to advance our cooperation in developing infrastructure, including Sabang Island and the Andaman Islands, said President Widodo, briefing the media following his talks with Prime Minister Modi at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta.
The move comes amid growing concern over the displays of Chinese maritime heft in the South China Sea. India’s ‘Look East’ policy has deepened its relationship with ASEAN, particularly with its two biggest players, Indonesia and Vietnam. Mr Modi replied: ‘The India-ASEAN partnership can be a force to guarantee peace and progress in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.’
The India-Indonesia defence agreement entails regular bilateral dialogue and consultation on strategic and military issues of common interest, exchange strategic data, military education , training and exercise, cooperation between the armed forces, including Army, Navy and Air Force, aerospace and humanitarian aid, disaster relief and medical services.
India and Indonesia pledged to enhance bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2025 through the six business deals signed by the two sides. The Indian Prime Minister also announced 30-day visa-free trips for Indonesian citizens visiting India. Mr Modi also invited the Indian diaspora to visit their ancestral homeland and deepen Indo-Indonesian friendship and understanding. With the PM’s visits to Malaysia and Singapore, India’s security architecture is clearly taking credible shape.
Wake-up call for BJP
BJP reverses in a Parliamentary by-election and Legislative Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and eight other states including Maharashtra, Uttarkhand and Nagaland. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are India’s two most populous, States; also socially and economically the most backward. The BJP has achieved moderate successes, but overall, the results have been a jolt to the Centre’s governing party. BJP President Amit Shah’s boast of steamrolling through the country’s South and East has been brutally exposed. Regional parties are stirring, with talk of Opposition unity derailing BJP hopes and ambitions of sweeping the next general election, still a year away.
A week is a long time in Indian politics, and hence it would be foolhardy to settle for predictions at this early stage. The BJP’s most formidable asset by far remains Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the most accomplished communicator in the land, and a superb tactician to boot. He holds the levers of power, with the end game more likely than not, to be decided by the performance of the Indian economy. By-elections are frequently influenced by the incumbency factor. That said, the party’s principal shortcoming has been its inability or unwillingness to recognize the scale and importance of the country’s cultural and ethnic diversity. Slogans that may appeal to the denizens of the northern Hindi-speaking belt are apt to go against the grain in Bengal and the South. Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress are a formidable presence in the State. In its most recent by-election, the TMC pulverized the Communists and Congress, yet outside her bailiwick, Ms Banerjee lacks credibility as a national politician, often perceived up north as a maverick to be taken with a large dose of salt.
With the Congress party no longer the pan-Indian organization it once was, and the two Communist parties a derisory rump, the field is open for regional understandings and arrangements. The economy and its technological underpinnings, including defence and sports, notably cricket, also Bollywood, each a cementing factor of Indian sensibility, will play a seminal role in the outcome of the next general election.
The rebound of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the last financial year ending March 31, 2018, points to the likelihood of robust economic growth driven by manufacturing. The fact that US e-commerce giant Walmart has invested $16 billion in India’s Flipkart is surely a measure of the confidence global companies have in the Indian economy and its future prospects.
With the Trump Administration’s tariff wars with Canada, Mexico, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and China – 25 per cent on steel imports, 10 per cent on aluminum - and the promised retaliations, are certain to impact the critical auto sector, with the US, possibly, coming off much the worse for wear. What may follow is a closer, compensatory economic alignment between Europe and Asia in trade and investment. India could emerge a major beneficiary of this imbroglio in the long and medium term. These factors could benefit the Indian economy going forward. A cautionary caveat, however, is in order. Could is not will, and hence we must await events before pronouncing final judgment.
Doshi first Indian winner of Pritzker Prize
Architect and urban planner Balkrishna Vithaldas Doshi, in his time, has won numerous awards at home and abroad, but none greater the most prestigious Pritzker Prize for Architecture, the first Indian to be so honoured. A select gathering of 250 invitees including Ratan Tata, Arun Saraf, owner of the major Hyatt properties, and Vikash Swarup, India’s High Commissioner to Canada, at the Aga Khan Museum in Toronto witnessed the ceremony, where the Chairman of the jury Glenn Murcutt read out a tribute to Mr Doshi, this being followed by words extolling the recipient’s life and work, crowned by Thomas Pritzker’s award of the 2018 Pritzker award to B.V. Doshi.
The nonagenarian architectural marvels include IIM Bangalore, the Centre for Environmental Planning, Technology cultural spaces in Ahmedabad such as the Tagore Memorial Hall, the Institute of Indology, Premabhai Hall, Aranya Low Cost Housing (Indore) that accommodates 80,000 dwellers and much else.
Balkrishna Vithaldas Doshi’s achievements embody his vision, compassion and dedication to humanity. He is peerless, an inspiration for the profession he has ennobled, and to those beyond whose lives have been enriched by his endeavours.
