‘You speak an infinite deal of nothing’ is a line from Shakespeare (The Merchant of Venice). The Bard had an uncanny knack of sizing up people and situations, whatever the age or country. The line could have been directed as much to President Barack Obama as the present Chinese leadership in Beijing.
There is clearly little to enthuse over about the Obama record. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to make a state visit to the United States sometime in June, presumably to sign up to an Indo-American partnership of sorts, scarcely the defining one of the 21 st century, as Obama had once grandiloquently proclaimed. With a new administration in place nothing Obama and Modi sign up to will be worth more than the price of the paper bearing their signatures. Significantly, there remains a fundamental mismatch between their expectations. President Obama is stubbornly insistent that the quantum of US military and economic aid to Pakistan continue as part of a perceived necessity to engage with Islamabad. America’s relationship with India, say administration officials, are on a different, and conceptually, higher track. Over and above this, they also underscore America’s unswerving commitment to the struggle against jihadi terrorism. It requires a willing suspension of disbelief, on the part of India, to take this all in, since it has a more than a touch of the theatre of the absurd. If Osama bin Laden has to be exterminated, and ISIL in the Middle East consigned to hell-fire, it makes no sense to keep their Pakistani handlers in business. Or does it do so, for reasons of realpolitik?
What is difficult for Indians to understand is the uncomprehending administration attitude. India faces an existential threat from across its north western border. The terrorist attacks on Mumbai exceeded by far the loss in lives and the destruction of property than those endured in Paris and Brussels. Yet in the West’s breast-beating over those awful tragedies, there was never a word about Mumbai. It would appear from western media reports that the West was the exclusive target of jihadi terror. Indonesia’s Bali bombing was forgotten, as were the continuing Boko Haram depredations in Nigeria and its neighbourhood.
For the reasons stated above, no US Pakistan policy can exclude India from the strategic calculus. No amount of casuistry can conceal this self-evident truth.
UK development agency to invest in India
There is life for Britain outside the European Union. CDC, Britain’s financial institution is to invest $680 million in India. As India has the fastest growing GDP at 7.5 per annum among the large economies, CDC, as one of the earliest private equity investors in India, having already pumped in over $1 billion directly and indirectly into 325 companies in Asia’s number three economy. If it finds the right opportunities more multi-million dollar investments will be made, according to a CDC source.
The world’s oldest development institution is gearing up for openings in the affordable services sector, looking to support ventures designed to create jobs and push sustainable growth, explained CDC’s South Asia head N Srinivasan. India happens to be the single largest market in terms of exposure where it backs domestic targeted private equity funds as well as making direct equity and debt investments.
About 70 per cent of the $1 billion investment to date has been directed towards private equity funds such as IDFC Multiple, Actis, Aavishkar, Rabi Agro Business Fund, Avigo and Baring India, and the30 per cent balance has been invested in in companies including Ratnakar Bank, Rainbow Hospitals, Narayana Hrudalaya, Janalakshmi Finance and Equitiaas.
CDC, which started direct support for companies in 2012 , looks to ramp up its direct investments in areas it finds specially attractive such as infrastructure, industry, healthcare and financial services. However, within this space it eyes companies that meet its goal of providing an improved standard of life for deprived sections of the community, the emphasis being better job opportunities, to go no further.
Political realignment in Indian states
Indian Union is composed of 29 states. Each state Assembly is elected every 5 years. But the timetable is not a fixed one for all of them. Every now and then a state or a group of states goes to polls. Recently elections were held in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. In each of them, a separate national or regional party has won.
For the first time Assam has a BJP-led government. This is historic. BJP, which was at one stage mainly a Hindi belt party, has now made inroads into Jammu & Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, earlier in Karnataka, and now it has some elected members in West Bengal, Kerala – which had earlier no BJP presence in these states.
Conversely, the Congress-led UPA has lost heavily in Assam. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu have created history by retaining power in these states. They have won in spite of the incumbency factor. In West Bengal, the Congress had allied with the Left parties and they have lost miserably. In Kerala, the Congress and the Left parties fought against each other, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front biting the dust. Puducherry (a tiny state) is the only consolation where the Congress and allies have retained power.
The common factor is simple. The Congress has suffered heavy loss in all larger states and lost power in Assam and Kerala.
The victory of BJP in Assam is worth studying. Veteran Tarun Gogoi, the Congress Chief Minister, lost for several reasons. The BJP and its allies have won 86 seats with 50% of votes cast. The Congress had been ruling that state for 15 years. Indeed, anti-incumbency factor was expected to play a part. But there were two major blunders by the Congress party. Instead of selecting Himanta Biswa Sarma, a young, popular, energetic leader as a potential chief minister, Tarun Gogoi anointed his son Gaurav Gogoi. Himanta Biswa Sarma was the main architect of the 2011 election victory in Assam. Disappointed Sarma left the Congress and joined the BJP just a few days prior to the election.
Another major blunder of the Congress was not to enter into an alliance with Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) whose popular Muslim leader Badruddin Ajmal has a huge following. Assam has the largest proportion (34.2% according to Census 2011) of the Muslim voters amongst all the states except J&K. Surprisingly, out of 38 Muslim majority constituencies, BJP won 13 seats as the Muslim votes were possibly divided between the Congress and the AUDF. The Congress has offered flimsy excuses for its poor showing. But the truth is obvious. The leadership of Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi has failed to grasp the knitty-gritty of the politics both at the national level and in almost all the states.
Today the Congress-led UPA rules in Karnataka (the only major state) and 5 other small states (Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Uttarakhand and UT Puducherry).
In West Bengal, the Congress allied with the Left parties which were their long term adversaries and strangely with 11.6% votes, the Congress won 44 seats whereas the Left parties with 27.6% votes won just 33.
One interpretation is that the Left-leaning supporters voted for Congress candidates but the Congress supporters did not reciprocate in favour of Left candidates. The BJP has doubled its vote share in West Bengal and won 6 (twice) seats compared to 2011. Some interpret this as the flowering of the Lotus in the East.
The overall impression is very clear. The BJP is becoming well-entrenched in several major states and has acquired power in the states previously beyond its reach. And, more importantly, the Congress has been decimated from the main political apparatus and reduced to a small power base and sadly without a leadership which can reinvigorate the party's cadre.
In Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the regional parties have strengthened their position. This result has given the BJP a tremendous boost and lifted its profile nationally, especially in view of the debacle in Delhi and Bihar state elections last year.
