Monsoon could arrive in Kerala any time after May 20 and before its normal onset date of June 1.
Indications to this effect came from the IMD’s latest extended range forecasts (ERF), generated using the MultiModel Extended Range Prediction System developed at the Pune-based IITM.
“As per the four-week extended range forecast for May 5-June 1, the monsoon onset over Kerala could take place any time after May 20. In the last ERF too, which was released on April 28, the May 1925 period was showing an increase in rainfall activity over Kerala. If the ERF next week also shows similar conditions over Kerala after May 20, one could say that the onset over the coastal state could take place before time,” a top expert from IITM said.
The ERF also showed that around mid-May, parts of northwest India could experience heatwave conditions.
“A cyclonic storm is going to form over east-central Bay of Bengal. It is likely to help strengthen monsoon flow over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. As per the latest ERF, this system is unlikely to hamper the monsoon flow around the third week because it would have already lost steam by then,” the expert said.
Scientists, however, said the ERF skill level gradually decreases from the third week. Therefore, observations from “week 3” should be considered with caution.
Independent meteorologist Akshay Deoras, a doctoral researcher at the University of Reading, UK, said, “Normally, the monsoon enters the South Andaman Sea by May 15-16 and, by May 22 it covers the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands region. The cyclonic storm could, however, help establish monsoon winds over the islands, thus speeding things up. While monsoon onset over the islands could also be on time, there are high chances that it could even hit the Andaman and Nicobar islands before time (around May 15-16). ”
