Modi marches on

Wednesday 22nd May 2019 07:47 EDT
 
 

Exit polls unanimously projected a big win for the Modi government with the NDA securing a majority, though there were differences on whether or not the BJP would cross the halfway mark on its own in the Lok Sabha. The polls forecast between 277 and 352 seats for the NDA with the BJP getting 227 to 291 seats. Two of them suggested the saffron party may actually cross its 2014 tally of 282. If these are proved correct, it would be the first instance since the Congress in 1980 and 1984 of a single party winning a majority in two successive Lok Sabha polls.

The projected tally for the Congress ranged from 38 to 87 seats. The 38-seat projection would mean the party slipping even further from its all-time low of 44 in 2014, while 87 would mean it nearly doubles its tally and has enough to formally get the title of Leader of the Opposition. That would be small consolation for a party hoping to unseat Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and lead a coalition government in New Delhi.

While the exact number of seats the BJP and NDA are likely to win in specific states varied from one poll to the other, the common thread was of the saffron alliance picking up all but a handful of seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar, very nearly replicating the 2014 outcome in these states.

It was also projected to make major inroads in West Bengal and Odisha – with one poll even suggesting it could win more seats than Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress and Naveen Patnaik's BJD respectively in these two states, which have traditionally yielded low returns for the BJP.

The only resistance, if the polls are to be believed, is in Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Punjab. In UP, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance was projected to win anywhere between 13 and 45 of the state’s 80 seats in the various polls. In TN, the DMK-led UPA was estimated to win a majority of the seats by most pollsters, but even here, the NDA may make a bigger dent than was widely expected. In Punjab, a resurgent Congress was projected to increase its tally at the expense not only of the Akalis and BJP but also AAP, which had won four seats last time but could end up with one at best, according to the pollsters.

Interestingly, while arithmetic seems to have worked at least to some extent in UP, in Karnataka, the other state in which BJP’s main rivals had tied up to defeat it, the projections are that Congress and JD(S) may actually do worse than in 2014, when they won 11 of the 28 seats. This time round, if the polls prove accurate, they could win at best 9 seats and possibly as few as 4. For the Left, the unanimous verdict of the exit polls was that it would fail to win any seat in Bengal, a state it had dominated for over three decades. The silver lining was that one poll projected it winning more seats than the Congress-led UDF in Kerala.

The projections for Andhra Pradesh, where the buzz going into the polls was that the Jagan Reddy-led YSRCP would dominate the state, varied widely with a couple of polls predicting that TDP would actually win more seats than its arch rival.

Exit polls have a mixed track record in India with some strikingly accurate predictions and some going spectacularly wrong. But with all the polls pointing in the same direction and varying little even in terms of the extent of the trend, BJP would be upbeat about its prospects on Thursday (May 23), when the official results are to be announced.

Cong rubbishes predictions

Congress rubbished exit polls predictions, saying the results on May 23 would surprise the ruling party even as political circles believed that even the lower end of the projections could well rule out any opportunity for an opposition coalition. Though every exit poll pointed in the direction of an NDA win, Congress spokesman Rajeev Gowda said, “Please wait till May 23. We will surprise you. The entire vote share to seat share conversion is a difficult job. There is also a fear psychosis in the country and people do not reveal their views.”

Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee called the exit polls “gossip” and said, “The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip.” But rhetoric apart, the consensus among the polls about a BJP victory left the opposition gripped with doubt and hoping for a repeat of 2004 when predictions proved wide off the mark. In 2004, the pollsters had gone with a victory for the NDA but the results saw Congress emerge as the single-largest party.

Insiders did betray concerns over possible results. Many were worried that post-poll predictions had only attested to the fact pointed out by in-house surveys - that Congress was doing badly even in states where it defeated BJP in December elections last year. Congress strategists believe that if NDA touches 230, it would be difficult to stop BJP from forming the government again. But if the figure drops below 230, then much would depend on the tally that Congress notches up. A figure below 100, besides being embarrassing, would render the party vulnerable to the demands of regional satraps to cede leadership to them.

Largely peaceful voting in 7th phase

The Election Commission said that polling for the seventh and final phase was largely peaceful barring a few incidents of violence in Weat Bengal with 64.26 per cent voter turnout. The 2019 election saw many more women casting their votes and the difference between male and female electors falling to just 0.4% from 1.4% in 2014.

“The gap between turnout of male and female voters has narrowed down significantly from 9% in 2009 to only 0.4% in this election. It was 1.4% in 2014,” deputy election commissioner Umesh Sinha said. The narrow difference indicates that the number of women voters would exceed men in some states. The EC said that in the 2014 elections, 64.63% voters had voted across the 59 seats spread over seven states and one Union Territory covered in the polling.

Polling was held in 13 parliamentary constituencies each from Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, nine in West Bengal, eight seats each in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, all four constituencies of Himachal Pradesh, three in Jharkhand and the one seat of Chandigarh. With this, polling for all 542 parliamentary seats is over. The EC is yet to announce dates for the Vellore Lok Sabha seat where polling was rescinded earlier.

Elections more peaceful than 2014

Umesh Sinha claimed this year’s general elections were more peaceful, including in challenging states such as J&K and those affected by Leftwing extremism, as compared to 2014. Though exact percentage of people who cast their votes during all the seven phases is still being compiled, senior EC officials said up to the completion of sixth phase of polling, 67.37% had exercised their franchise as compared to 66.12% in 2014, marking an increase of nearly 1.24 percentage points.

On Sunday. Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest turnout at 75.5% as compared to 66.87% in 2014. In West Bengal, it was 73.51% against 79.15% during the last Lok Sabha election. Jharkhand followed with 71.16% compared to 68.87% in 2014. Similarly, in Himachal Pradesh, the turnout on Sunday was 70.62% against 65.06% during the last general elections. The voter turnout was also higher in UP and Bihar as compared to 2014. Chandigarh saw maximum dip in voter turnout at 63.57% as compared to 73.84% in 2014. Punjab also saw a decline in voter participation.

EC officials said preventive steps were taken in West Bengal where nearly 2,800 rowdies who could be potential trouble-makers, were detained. Deputy election commissioner Sudeep Jain said that over 400 quick response teams (QRTs) were deployed strategically so that they could reach any trouble spot within 10 minutes. These vehicles were fitted with GPS and monitored by police observers.

Jain said there was a complaint about central forces influencing voters in one of the booths in Basirhat. He dismissed the complaint saying central force personnel were not allowed inside the polling booth and there was no question of influencing voters.

Kolkata voters go missing after 3 pm

Voters of the two entirely urban Kolkata constituencies went missing from polling booths after 3 pm on Sunday, pulling down the city proper’s vote percentage below the level seen in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. Kolkata North and Kolkata South are the two only Lok Sabha seats with every booth within the municipal corporation area and turnouts here have habitually lagged behind those of Bengal’s 40 other seats. But despite this history and the oppressive heat in the morning, both the constituencies looked as if they would better their 2014 performance, only to fall short in the last quarter of polling.

EC officials admitted that turnout fell abruptly after 3 pm and this “completely reversed the encouraging steady turnout witnessed from 7 am”. The sudden dip after 3pm - when many Bengal constituencies saw an appreciable surge this year - came as a surprise. The dip was all the more surprising given the high-voltage drama - over BJP president Amit Shah’s roadshow and the subsequent desecration of Vidyasagar’s bust - that happened in Kolkata barely five days before the poll. Even TMC leaders who expected a voter surge, given the average Bengali voter’s reverence for Vidyasagar and other heroes of the Bengali Renaissance, expressed surprise at the low turnout, especially, the afternoon dip.

The voting pattern also went against the trend of how Bengal has voted this time. The state’s overall voting percentage of 83.8 this year has exceeded the 2014 turnout of 81.1%. Kolkata South Trinamool candidate Mala Roy said there were complaints of malfunctioning EVMs and the VVPAT process, leading to long queues in the morning. Poll officials, however, said that could not be a reason for low polling, especially as the situation eased out later.

Bombs hurled, homes ransacked in Bengal town

West Bengal’s Bhatpara assembly by-poll saw widespread violence during which bombs were hurled, shops and houses ransacked and Trinamool candidate Madan Mitra’s car was vandalised. Unofficially, as many as 14 persons were injured in the violence in the constituency, the home turf of BJP’s Arjun Singh. Police confirmed that three people received injuries and said that the polling process was unaffected.

Singh, who was Bhatpara MLA, contested the LS polls from Barrackpore, necessitating the bypoll which is being fought by his son Pawan as a BJP candidate. “I had a narrow escape... Singh’s men attempted to kill me but that cannot stop me from protecting my supporters,” Mitra said. Barrackpore police commissioner rushed to the spot along with a large force, said ADG law & order Siddhinath Gupta. “Three vehicles, including two police cars, were damaged,” Gupta added.

Singh denied Mitra’s allegations and said he was innocent. “I was at my office throughout the day. When I heard some houses were being ransacked by outsiders, I came out to find many locals with splinter injuries and got them to hospital,” he said.


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