The Narendra Modi government which will be completing one year in office on 26th May continues to enjoy fairly high approval ratings in India’s largest cities, even though it's not as high as it was five months back.
According to a poll, less than one in five respondents said the government's performance has been "very good", compared to more than one-fourth in a similar poll done in December-end. Those saying that the government has done a "somewhat good" job, however, continue to be just under half the total.
The latest poll also reveals that a majority feel initial expectations from the government were unrealistically high, an indication perhaps that the hype of "achhe din" is giving way to a more sober assessment of what to expect from the Modi government.
The other interesting finding of the survey is that the “Swachh Bharat” campaign is by far the most popular initiative taken by the Modi government in its first year in office, with the Jan Dhan financial inclusion scheme and 'Make in India' distant seconds.
As for his biggest blunder, opinion is divided, but Modi's inability to rein in loose-talking ministers gets the biggest thumbs-down, followed by the controversy over the land acquisition bill and the monogrammed suit Modi wore during US president Barack Obama's visit to India in January.
The drop in the rating of the government's overall performance is most pronounced in socio-economic category, the lowest of the ones covered by the survey. In this category, the proportion of those saying the government has done a good or very good job is down from 74% in end-December to 61% now. A similar trend is visible in this segment's ratings for the government's performance on development and job creation, arguably a sign that those lower down the economic ladder are feeling more disappointed, perhaps because they expected more from Modi.
Job creation was the one that received the lowest marks: only 17% said it had done a very good job and 30% felt it had done a somewhat good job. The survey was conducted in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune and Ahmedabad.
Has the life for the common man changed?
In terms of perception, the answer would be a clear yes. The unfortunate policy paralysis that had set in during UPA II’s term and the general feeling of ennui and despondency in governance was eating the minds and spirits of a middle class which had gained wings since the Indian economy liberalised.
The country’s ‘dil mange more’ appetite was frustrated by the dual power centres that had been created in the previous government, and business heads and industrialists had begun to despair as the second phase of much needed reforms remained grounded despite an economist prime minister’s presence at the helm. Manmohan Singh had shown the country that dreams could be achieved and then got too knotted in the contradictions of his own government to deliver the tangibles in his second term.
Breath of fresh air for Indians
Narendra Modi’s style of governance came as a breath of fresh air for Indians. You can call that a good start. Yes, inflation is down, as promised, but that clearly has more to do with low crude rates and crash in global commodity prices and less to do with any efficiency in managing supplies and supply chains.
On the economic front, the GDP data is slowly looking up and both the World Bank and IMF predict that if all goes well, the Indian economy will be back on the 7% plus growth track. One would presume, this would have to come with riders – Modi would need to deliver on the promises he made on rolling out the next round of economic reforms.
He has taken the ordinance route to push through a few bills, and caps on FDI in insurance, real estate and defence have been increased. The idea to privatise some part of the railways is also good considering the train network remains the best means to keep India tightly knit, and thus the need to modernise it cannot be understated.
Grey areas
But grey areas remain – for example the ‘Make in India’ campaign has been much touted but the country hasn’t made any improvement in the ‘ease of doing business’ index. The Vodafone tax dispute of the previous regime was severely criticized and yet finance minister Arun Jaitley has chosen to pursue the same path by imposing retrospective tax on foreign portfolio investors.
An American industrialist had made a pointed observation when Modi visited the US, saying the PM had wasted the first three crucial months, which are usually the best time to push radical policy decisions and change the ground reality. Similar is the fate of highly publicised campaigns like Swachch Bharat Abhiyan, Ganga Cleaning program, Digital India or Skill India, where application remains untested while slogans like ‘maximum governance and minimum government’ are bandied about.
Undoubtedly, schemes to bring banking, social security and insurance to the under privileged through proposals like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana have been aces, as have been direct subsidy transfers to some extent. But again, between what has been implemented and a lot that has not been, slowly people have begun to realize that these are the same schemes that the UPA government had been talking about which are now being renamed and re-marketed.
The litmus test will be whether systems will be put in place so that benefits reach the common man by the end of 5 years, irrespective of whether the plan is called Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) or Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT).
Foreign policy
On the foreign policy front as well, Modi government’s achievement is more like a mixed bag – his invitation to President Barack Obama for India's Republic Day celebrations was a master stroke, and his visits to the US, Australia and Japan were in many ways path breaking. However, his track record insofar as China and Pakistan are concerned is far from satisfactory. First, Modi invited Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony and then later called off talks with Pakistan over their envoy meeting Kashmiri separatists. Months later, he again made the first move to resume foreign secretary level talks though Pakistan continues to consult Hurriyat leaders and invite them to their National Day programmes. If foreign affairs ever defied logic, one could quote this example as a classic case.
With China, things have been no better. Though Xi Jinpings’s visit to India was much lauded, the Chinese Army made incursions into Ladakh even while their President was still on Indian soil, making the incident looked too well scripted for India to miss the point. And just as we cosied up to the US, China and Pakistan followed up with a meeting to discuss USD 46 billion of investment in an economic corridor.
A thumbs up could be for Sushma Swaraj for helping evacuate Indians stranded in Iraq and Yemen (though the fate of 40 odd hostages being held by ISIS in Iraq is yet unknown) and for Modi to be off his feet quickly for sending aid and assistance to earthquake-hit Nepal.
Internally, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine can take the credit for winning Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand and forging an alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. In Delhi, the duo had a brief waterloo moment when the Aam Aadmi Party’s landslide victory came as a surprise to itself, as much as it startled the BJP. Even in Kashmir, the coalition has not been free from controversies with chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed conceding space to right wingers by first crediting Pakistanis for allowing polls and then freeing radical leader Masarat Alam, only to re-arrest him later.
Tackling hardliners
Besides, Modi is yet to tactfully handle the hardliners within his party (including in his cabinet) and its affiliates like the RSS and VHP who have been whipping up unnecessary frenzy over issues like ‘Ghar Wapsi’ or indulging in physical or verbal attacks on minorities. His government is also facing censure for lack of transparency with regards to the decision to ban several NGOs, many of which were funded by foreign sources.
From the time Modi started his tenure in Delhi’s power corridors to now....one of the best moments for him would have been Barack Obama’s penning an ode to his life in a Time magazine profile with the description of his rise from humble beginnings to becoming the current “reformer-in-chief”.
The eulogy would have given Modi a high considering his ambition to be seen as a global statesman. But Modi would do well to remember that great leaders are those who touch the lives of small people and make a real difference to their destinies – the chaiwallas, dhaba workers, autorickshaw drivers, teachers, students, doctors, professionals, kiriana shop owners and most importantly – the farmers.
Moid’s BJP-led government was recently facing the heat on the pathetic conditions of those whose livelihood depends on agricultural incomes. A spate of unseasonal rains not just destroyed crops but extinguished hopes and lives. It was just when the debate over our farmer suicides was taking centrestage that the Nepal earthquake struck, causing a tectonic shift in public focus as well.
While Narendra Modi has escaped the scathe of condemnation this time, he must use the time gained fruitfully. Most of our poor population depends only on their small plots of land and what they yield. Bringing to them irrigation, insurance covers and modern techniques of farming will go a long way in improving the fate of the last man standing in this vast and diverse canvass called India.
Serving India's interests abroad
Just as he took over India's reins with an external affairs bang by getting the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries' heads of state to attend his swearing-in ceremony, the jet-setting Modi is concluding one year in power with a few more foreign policy feathers in his cap.
Having travelled to a whopping 18 countries over the last 12 months, he has set a record as a roving prime minister who prioritises international engagement through ever multiplying personal footfalls. By deploying the full political will of the nation's highest office at the service of India's interests abroad, Modi has done justice to what the BJP labels as one of the five pillars of its foreign strategy - Samvaad - or a diplomacy of continuous, frequent and sustained interactions with the world. In the rare few months when Modi was not boarding and descending Air India One planes, he was embracing US president Barack Obama for camera flashlights or swaying Chinese president Xi Jinping on a traditional swing.
Endowed with quintessential Gujarati streaks of entrepreneurship and an outgoing personality, Modi has revelled in international settings and reified the slogan of 'bringing the world to India and taking India to the world'. For foreign policy aficionados, he has been a dream prime minister who is constantly, consistently and innovatively global in vision and action. Enjoying an absolute majority in Parliament and free from the pressure of any opposition party worth its salt at home, he has been able to devote much time and energy to strengthening India's position overseas than any Indian prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru.
Modi's impact is not limited to increased attentiveness to external affairs. He has also tried to reimagine and present India as a country on the march to great power status in the hierarchy of nations. True to the BJP's other foreign policy pillar - Sammaan - or national dignity and honour, he has carried on his shoulders the burning ambition of Indians who crave for global recognition and prestige.
British journalist Lance Price's new book, “The Modi Effect,” cites the prime minister expressing pride in "communicating what we can do for the world, which is so different [from the past] when our leaders have communicated what India wants". Modi's stirring speeches before foreign and domestic audiences about India being a vishwa guru or teacher of the world are expressions of his realisation that the time has come for India to give and lead, rather than take and follow.
On other occasions, he has issued realistic caveats that "the whole world is looking at India with great expectations but we are not ready". By psychologically pepping the nation to assay a bigger role as an international problem solver and a 'net provider' of security and prosperity, he has recast India's image from a self-absorbed and domestically preoccupied country into a force for good on a planetary scale.
That Modi's rebranding of India is echoing is apparent from the accolades pouring in from influential foreign quarters. Obama's tribute to him in Time magazine and a Chinese government-backed publishing house's naming him as "the highest ranked global leader in handling domestic and international affairs", speak volumes. The sleek public relations offensives for which Modi is famed have put India on the world map as a happening and upcoming country, especially in economic terms. In his first year, Modi has aced what the BJP terms as a key pillar of its foreign policy - Samriddhi - or shared economic prosperity. The Economist has argued that "amid the disappointment" and gloom enveloping China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa, "one big emerging market stands out: India".
Modi's vigorous pursuit of foreign direct investment (FDI) during his foreign jaunts and the sizeable inward financial commitments he has secured from Japan, China, the US, Canada, Australia and Germany have reversed the investor alienation that had plagued India.
Set an Aggressive Target Foreign inflows from April 2014 to January 2015 have risen by 36% compared to the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year.
The celebrations to mark one year in office will be held on May 26 after Modi returns from his visits to China, Mongolia and South Korea. The government is planning a slew of functions on that day.
Main events during one year
May 26, 2014 – Sworn to power – After landslide elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his cabinet are sworn in at an elaborate function in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhawan.
May 27, 2014 – Hand to Pakistan – The first day of PM Modi in office was marked by a meeting with Pakistan Premier Nawaz Sharif and a handshake that was splashed across next day’s newspapers.
June 14, 2014 – Thrust on Military Might – The Prime Minister dedicated India’s largest warship – INS Vikramaditya - to the nation and pitched for making the country self-reliant on manufacturing defence equipment.
June 15, 2014 – The Bhutanese Bond – As part of his first foreign visit, Modi chose Bhutan, a land-locked Himalayan country that has always been a great friend of India. In Bhutan, Modi stressed that a happy neighbour is integral for India’s progress.
June 21, 2014 – Biting the Bullet – The Modi government got its first taste of public protests after its decision to impose a rail fare hike and increase the import duty on sugar. Both decisions were highly slammed by opposition parties and the public.
July 14, 2014 – BRICS in Brazil – Modi’s diplomatic efforts got a boost as he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of the BRICS summit in Brazil.
July 27, 2014 – Doubts of Distrust – Stray incidents of discrimination against minorities puts spotlight back on whether the Modi administration is serious about maintaining equality for all. One was an incident of a Shiv Sena lawmaker pushing food into the mouth of a Muslim caterer, another indicating that India could become a Hindu nation under Modi.
August 3, 2014 – Road to Kathmandu – The Prime Minister made his first visit to Nepal in August in further indication that SAARC countries remain his focus when it comes to extending India’s foreign policy boundaries.
August 15, 2014 – Invoking the ‘Pradhan Sevak’ – Making his first Independence Day speech after becoming India’s premier, Narendra Modi made a pitch for a ‘Swacch Bharat’ and exhorted countrymen to make efforts to educate the girl child.
August 25, 2014 – By-poll Setback – In first elections after the Modi government was voted to power, the ruling BJP lost out in a majority of the seats that went for elections in the states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal.
August 28, 2014 – Jan Dhan Yojana – PM Modi formally launched a massive financial inclusion programme named ‘Jan Dhan Yojana’ that aims to help provide a bank account for every household in the country.
September 5, 2014 – The Teachers’ Day dilemma – The HRD Ministry’s directive to all schools across the country to live-stream PM Modi’s Teachers’ Day Speech provided discomfiture to a large section of the public. Many were enraged, especially on social media, as to how students were made to come to school on a day generally regarded as a holiday.
September 25, 2014 – Shiv Sena break-up – The ruling BJP and the Modi government were hit by a huge blow after hectic negotiations with the Shiv Sena, a 25- year-old ally, broke down thus leading to break-up of the alliance ahead of all-important Maharashtra elections.
September 28, 2014 – The Madison Magic – ‘This is India’s century': That’s what PM Modi told a sellout crowd at the Madison Square Garden in New York as part of his historic US visit. The PM’s meeting with President Barack Obama also led to widespread media coverage.
October 2, 2014 – Swacch Bharat Abhiyan – On the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, PM Modi announced the initiation of Swacch Bharat Abhiyan - a nationwide mission to clean India’s streets and ensure sanitation. He also called upon celebrities, fellow lawmakers and industrialists to pick up the broom for the cause.
October 19, 2014 – Electoral prowess – Maharashtra’s decisive election results – which gave the BJP the maximum number of seats in the state Assembly and a chance to form the government – was seen as public support for the Modi government. Haryana too, for the first time, gave the BJP the first shot at power. In both states, Modi had campaigned aggressively to woo voters.
November 12, 2014 – Foreign outreach – PM Modi’s foreign outreach continued with his attendance at the ASEAN-India and the East Asia Summits held at Nay Pyi Daw in Myanmar. He also travelled to Australia to set up meeting with PM Tony Abbott and a rare appearance at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
December 1, 2014 – The Sadhvi Saga – In a major embarrassment for the Modi government, one of its ministers - Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti - made communal remarks at an election rally in Delhi. Her use of the ‘Haraamzada’ expletive at the rally caused uproar in both houses of Parliament in the winter session.
December 23, 2014 – History in J&K – The BJP created history in Jammu and Kashmir by sweeping the Jammu region and becoming the second-largest party in the state Assembly elections. It also won enough seats to form a government in Jharkhand in an alliance with the AJSU. The verdict in both states were testament to 2014 remaining a highly successful electoral year for the ruling BJP and its leader Narendra Modi.
January 7, 2015 – The 4 kids dilemma – After Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, it was the turn of another BJP lawmaker to embarrass the government with foot-in-the-mouth comments. At a gathering of saints, Sakshi Maharaj, a saffron clad MP from Unnao, stated that every Hindu woman must produce at least 4 children to protect the religion. Once again, the remark was widely panned and the PM’s silence over it questioned.
January 23, 2015 – Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao – Reiterating the government’s commitment to end discrimination against the girl child, PM Modi launched a nationwide programme ‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’ exhorting citizens to prevent female foeticide and encourage girl child education.
January 26, 2015 – The Obamas in attendance – India’s Republic Day Celebrations this year had a high-profile guest – US President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama. As the elephants trumpeted and camels walked on the majestic Rajpath, the Obamas sat under a rain-drenched canopy admiring the parade.
February 10, 2015 – Delhi Debacle – The ruling BJP got a crude shock as they were handed out a humiliating defeat by the Aam Aadmi Party in the Assembly elections in Delhi. The election proved that the Modi effect would indeed be now waning.
February 28, 2015 – Prabhu’s Rail budget – Modi’s techno-minister Suresh Prabhu, the Railways Minister, presented his first budget announcing no increase in passenger fares but at the same time desisting from announcing new services as well.
March 15, 2015 – General Budget – Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the full fledged and much-awaited General Budget 2015 that had a bit for every class of society. From abolition of wealth tax to increase in service tax, the budget had both ups and downs.
March 22, 2015 – Man ki baat with Kisaan – As his government battled extreme heat over the controversial land acquisition bill, PM Modi spoke to thousands of farmers over the radio, trying to dispel rumours that his policies are anti-farmer. He assured the farmers that his government would do nothing to upset farmers.
April 14, 2015 – Yemen crisis – External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj announced on Twitter that the Indian embassy in Yemen was being evacuated in light of the war there. The tweet put an end to a massive rescue operation that the government had earlier launched in the war-torn country to save thousands of Indians fleeing Yemen.
April 17, 2015 – Three-nation tour – PM Modi undertook a three-nation tour to France, Germany and Canada exhorting industrialists and CEOs to contribute to the ‘Make in India’ programme of the government.
April 25, 2015 – Himalayan earthquake – The Modi government’s swift and quick response to the Nepal earthquake that flattened hundreds of buildings and killed more than 7,000 people was highly praise-worthy. Within 40 minutes of the first tremors, Modi had sent out his first tweet responding to the disaster.
May 7, 2015 – Historic land swap – Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj got a round of applause from all quarters in the Parliament as members across treasury and opposition benches came together to pass a constitution amendment bill for a historic land boundary agreement with Bangladesh.
