The first state elections after the Modi government’s return to office in Lok Sabha polls will be held in Maharashtra and Haryana on October 21 with BJP as front-runner in the face of a weakened opposition and the party hoping to capitalise on decisions like the nullification of Article 370.
Looking to consolidate its gains, BJP is looking to score bigger wins in Maharashtra - in partnership with Shiv Sena - and on its own in Haryana as well. The situation for the opposition is fragmented in Haryana where the Chautala family is split into warring factions and Congress has barely managed an in-house truce by giving former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda the pole position, reposing hope in his skills as a political organiser.
In Maharashtra, Congress and NCP have sealed seat-sharing but both parties are hit by significant desertions, particularly from the ranks of influential Maratha leaders who have been the mainstay of their politics. The defections have demoralised the rank and file and fortified the perception that BJP has a big lead over its rivals and avoiding a mauling will be seen as a gain for the opposition.
As in all state elections since 2014, PM Narendra Modi will be the main BJP campaigner and he can be expected to try and keep the Lok Sabha momentum going, using decisions like scrapping Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and passage of the bill to ban triple talaq as examples of political will. He can be expected to attack Congress over corruption cases dogging its leaders. Though state issues dominate assembly polls, BJP hopes the “national” discourse brings it more cheer.
It will be a first if saffron forces score consecutive wins in Maharashtra and Haryana. BJP and Sena were in office earlier in 1995-1999, but were unable to repeat their success till 2014. BJP won a majority on its own in Haryana for the first time in 2014 and another win will help consolidate its hold over a state where Jat politics led by the Devi Lal clan or leaders from the Congress-fold has often held sway.
By-elections to six seats in Gujarat
The Election Commission announced by-elections to two more Legislative Assembly seats in Gujarat, a day after it released schedule for four by-polls in the state out of the total seven constituencies up for grabs. The EC is yet to announce the schedule for Morva Hadaf Assembly constituency, reserved for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category.
Bypolls to rest six seats would be held on October 21. Counting of votes would be taken up three days later. The by-polls to Radhanpur and Bayad Assembly seats were necessitated after sitting MLAs Alpesh Thakor and Dhavalsinh Zala of Congress resigned and joined the ruling BJP.
Earlier, the EC announced by-polls to Amraiwadi, Tharad, Lunawada, and Kheralu seats, which fell vacant after sitting MLAs successfully contested Lok Sabha polls in April-May this year. Morva Hadaf seat fell vacant after Independent MLA Bhupendrasinh Khant was disqualified following the invalidation of his caste certificate.
Meanwhile, Alpesh Thakor and Zala have staked claims for their respective constituencies, Radhanpur and Bayad. Both the leaders belonged to the Alpesh Thakor community. "My decision to join the BJP was for the sake of the Alpesh Thakor community and farmers of Bayad constituency. A former MLA has also demanded ticket from the seat. But people know me. I have helped resolve even small, personal problems of people in my area. If given ticket, I will help the party win," said Zala.
Alpesh Thakor said (abrogation of provisions of) Article 370 will remain the main issue in polls. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has provided a capable leadership to the country. The way the Congress campaigned against Article 370 has disillusioned people," he said. Alpesh Thakor added that people are also appreciating the work of the state government.
"The decision on likely candidate from Radhanpur will be decided by the parliamentary board of the BJP. However, senior BJP leaders have indicated that I will contest. I am very much interested..." he added.
Accusing the poll panel of acting under pressure from the BJP, the Congress questioned its decision to not announce by-polls to all the seven vacated seats.
