Exit polls on Monday predict that BJP is set to again form the government in UP, while AAP is storming into office in Punjab. They also gave BJP the edge in Uttarakhand and Manipur, and projected a neck-and-neck race in Goa that could end in a hung assembly.
While agreeing BJP and its allies would win UP, the polls varied in terms of the extent of the victory, with some giving the ruling alliance just 225 seats in the 403-member house and others suggesting it could even repeat its impressive tally from five years ago, winning up to 326 seats.
The least decisive of this range of verdicts was projected by the Times Now-Veto poll which gave BJP and allies 225 seats, but that was still well clear of the SP alliance’s 151. At the other end of the
spectrum, the India TodayAxis poll gave NDA between 288 and 326 seats, and the SP alliance at best 101 seats.
In Punjab, the projected seats for AAP ranged from as low as 51 to a near complete sweep of 111 in the 117-member house. But all the polls suggested the Arvind Kejriwal-led party would finish well clear of Congress in second spot, with the Akali-BSP alliance finishing third and the BJP-led alliance, which includes Captain Amrinder Singh’s fledgling outfit, a distant fourth. In Uttarakhand, BJP is projected by most polls to win a majority if only just, but the ABP News-CVoter poll gave Congress the edge and a possibility of reaching the halfway mark in the 70-member house.
Goa promises to be the closest contest, if the exit polls are right, with no one giving either BJP or Congress a majority in the 40-member house. Three of the four polls analysed here gave Congress a slight advantage, but the ABP News-CVoter poll suggested BJP had a marginal lead.
In Manipur, the BJP was seen as being in the driver’s seat. The India Today-Axis poll gave the party 33 to 43 seats in the 60-member house, enough for a majority even at the lower end. The ABP News-CVoter poll on the other hand gave the saffron party at best 27 seats. But with Congress projected to win no more than 16 seats even in that poll, and NDA-constituent NPP estimated to win 10-14 seats, that would still mean BJP remaining in office in the northeastern state.
