India is set to hold assembly elections in four states and one union territory, outcomes that will influence the nation’s political and governance landscape ahead of the expected 2029 General Elections.
With the Election Commission of India announcing the poll schedule for Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, political parties have shifted into full campaign mode.
With less than a month to voting, the stakes are high, as the results could significantly influence both regional and national politics, even as each state presents distinct dynamics and issues.
Polling will take place between April 9 and April 29, with counting on May 4. In the run-up, parties are intensifying campaigns, announcing welfare-focused manifestos, forming alliances, and sharpening their political messaging to appeal to 170 million voters across 824 constituencies.
Voter roll controversy adds twist to Bengal polls
The West Bengal Assembly Election 2026, scheduled in two phases on April 23 and 29, is emerging as a direct contest between the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the Left and Congress largely sidelined. The Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha is contesting the Darjeeling hill seats as a TMC ally.
The TMC, in power for three terms, has replaced 74 sitting MLAs to counter anti-incumbency. In 2021, it won 215 seats with a 48.02% vote share, while the BJP secured 77 seats with 38%, marking a sharp rise from its 2016 performance.
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is set to face BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, reflecting a continuation of their 2021 rivalry. Meanwhile, the election build-up has been clouded by controversy over voter list revisions, with the electorate shrinking significantly and millions of names still under scrutiny, adding uncertainty to the polls.
The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has dominated West Bengal’s political discourse, overshadowing governance issues and benefiting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has used it to target the BJP. While the BJP initially gained traction after the 2024 Kolkata incident, internal divisions and challenges in navigating the state’s cultural dynamics have weakened its position. The TMC remains consolidated under Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee, while Congress contests independently and the Left could influence close races, keeping the outcome uncertain.
Minority voters, long the backbone of TMC dominance, now face a fragmented landscape ahead of the 2026 polls. With roughly 30% of the electorate influencing over 114 seats, smaller Muslim outfits, a resurgent Congress in north Bengal, and new entrants like Nawsad Siddique’s Indian Secular Front (ISF) and Humayun Kabir’s AJUP (aligned with AIMIM) are creating fresh uncertainty in the state’s electoral arithmetic.
Amid this backdrop, BJP national president Nitin Nabin is set to visit the state to review election preparedness. His two-day visit will include high-level strategy meetings with party leaders and workers, focusing on strengthening grassroots outreach, digital operations, and communication strategies. He is also scheduled to meet various organisational wings and review booth-level readiness, while offering prayers at the Dakshineswar Kali Temple, as the party intensifies efforts ahead of the crucial polls.
Dravidian dominance in elections
The Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2026 will be held in a single phase on April 23, with counting scheduled for May 4. Unlike many other states where the Hindutva right has expanded its influence, Tamil Nadu remains an exception, with the Bharatiya Janata Party continuing as a marginal player. This is largely due to the enduring dominance of Dravidian politics, shaped by social justice and Tamil identity, which has kept national parties in secondary roles.
Chief Minister M K Stalin and the DMK are seeking re-election on the strength of their “Dravidian Model,” highlighting economic growth and welfare schemes, including cash transfers for women, while the Opposition targets corruption and uneven benefits.
Edappadi K Palaniswami now leads the AIADMK and heads an opposition alliance with the BJP, PMK, and breakaway factions like AMMK, aiming to consolidate regional vote banks despite internal challenges and BJP ambitions.
The DMK-led alliance, supported by Congress and Left, remains strong, but new entrants like Seeman’s NTK and Vijay’s TVK could split votes among youth and minorities. In 2021, the DMK alliance won 45.4% of votes to AIADMK’s 39.7%. The 2026 polls will test if Dravidian dominance can hold in a more fragmented political landscape.
In the Union Territory of Puducherry, voters will go to the polls on April 9, 2026, to elect the 16th Legislative Assembly, giving the AINRC-BJP Government its first opportunity to be evaluated after five years of the “double-engine” governance model. The 30 Assembly seats are spread across 23 in Puducherry, five in Karaikal, and one each in Mahe and Yanam.
The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) will contest all 30 seats independently, including two women candidates from Mangalam and Kadirkamam. Meanwhile, the Congress-DMK alliance faced a setback as VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan announced his party would contest three seats independently but support alliance candidates elsewhere.
The BJP is contesting 10 seats, up from nine in 2021. AIADMK Puducherry secretary A. Anbazhagan confirmed the party will contest only two seats under “coalition dharma” and hopes to secure a share in power post-election, with party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami coordinating with the BJP.
However, AIADMK’s influence has waned, with new entrants like Jose Charles Martin’s Latchiya Jananayaka Katchi, allotted two seats in the BJP-led alliance, emerging as a notable political force in Puducherry.
LDF and UDF neck-and-neck ahead of polls
The Election Commission of India has announced the key dates for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, with polling on April 9 and counting on May 4. The announcement was made at Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi, by Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, along with Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi. This will be the first major election in Kerala following the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, with single-phase voting across all 140 constituencies.
The contest is shaping up as a close battle between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by CM Pinarayi Vijayan and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). A VoteVibe survey suggests a narrow edge for the LDF, but public opinion is divided: 38.8% rated the government’s performance as “good” or “very good,” while 43.1% described it as “poor” or “very poor,” with dissatisfaction stronger in rural areas and among middle-aged voters. Younger voters showed relatively higher satisfaction.
The race for the chief ministership is equally tight, with Vijayan and Congress leader VD Satheesan nearly tied at around 29% each, followed by Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar at 10.8%, and KK Shailaja and Shashi Tharoor trailing. Community-based preferences indicate strong support for Satheesan among Muslim and Christian voters, while Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe groups lean towards Vijayan.
The survey also highlights an urban-rural divide: rural respondents favored the UDF slightly more, while urban voters leaned towards the LDF. About 39.7% of voters expressed a willingness to re-elect their sitting MLA, though nearly 19% indicated a clear preference for switching parties, reflecting a moderate but fragmented anti-incumbency sentiment.
Overall, voter sentiment in Kerala appears closely contested, with key issues, governance performance, and leadership preferences shaping what could be a highly competitive 2026 election.
NDA poised for big win in Assam, survey shows
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised for a decisive win in the upcoming Assam Assembly elections, according to VoteVibe’s pre-poll survey. The NDA is projected to secure 80–90 of the 126 seats, while the opposition INDIA bloc may win 29-39 seats, with smaller regional parties expected to remain marginal.
Region-wise, the NDA leads across Upper Assam, Lower Assam, and the North Bank, reflecting a broad support base. The alliance also holds a vote share advantage at 42.7%, compared to 36.1% for the opposition. Public perception favors the NDA, with 51.8% believing it is most likely to form the next government.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma remains a key factor, with 48% of respondents backing him as the next CM, ahead of Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi at 37.7%.
A VoteVibe survey shows strong public approval for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s handling of illegal immigration, with 38.8% rating it “very good” and 11.8% “good.” Overall, 47% of respondents viewed the state government positively, indicating limited anti-incumbency impact on the NDA.
The survey highlights strong support among SC, OBC, and upper-caste voters, with welfare schemes like the Rs 9,000 (around £71.54) direct benefit transfer for women further consolidating backing. Key voter concerns include unemployment (25.7%), floods, rehabilitation, and corruption. Younger voters (18-24) show relatively more openness to the opposition, which retains pockets of support, especially among minorities and rural areas.
While polls are not definitive, the NDA appears to hold a clear advantage. In 2021, the BJP-led NDA won 75 of 126 seats, securing a second consecutive term in Assam under Sarma’s leadership.
